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Best Recruiting Class

How will we know if Fisch’s goal of having the “best recruiting class” in 2025 will be achieved?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 30 Washington at Arizona Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

“I challenged our staff, I said ‘I want the class of 2025 to be the best recruiting class Washington has ever had,’” Fisch said…

So, what does it mean to have the “best recruiting class Washington has ever had”? A year from now, how will we know if Coach Fisch has achieved that goal? And what will that recruiting class look like?

Obviously we won’t know if Fisch can achieve that goal yet; it is still too early in the recruiting cycle (despite having 2 commits already). But, as we get further along, we should have a way to see how well Coach Fisch is doing toward meeting that goal. So how do we measure “best recruiting class”?

There are several possible ways to do this that I’ve thought of. This will look at some of these and show how UW has done over the last 14 years (which is as far back as the data on 247Sports goes) to see what Fisch has to do to achieve to reach his goal.

Total Recruits

This is probably the least useful means of measuring a class-by the total number of recruits. But it is an easy measure.

The most recruits added to UW has been 33 in 2010, which was Sark’s first full class.

I do expect that the number of high school (and JC) recruits in the 2025 class to be higher than the average over the last 14 years-which is about 22. And it should definitely be higher than the 2024 class, which is at 17 (although that is debatable depending on how you view the 2024 commits to Arizona that transferred to UW already). But even though Coach Fisch has said that he wants to build the team through high school recruiting and not the Transfer Portal, I don’t see him getting much more than 25 in the 2025 class. I see him getting around that many and then using the Transfer Portal if he still needs a few more.

5-Star Recruits

Washington v Arizona Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

These are the highest-rated recruits in a class. There are usually only 32 in a class. (247Sports matches the number of 5-star recruits to the number of NFL teams.)

UW has had a total of just three 5-star recruits in the last 14 years. They are Sam Huard, Sav’ell Smalls, and Shaq Thompson. UW had no more than 1 in any recruiting class, so it would only take getting 2 in the 2025 class to have the “best” using this measure. But, it doesn’t seem very realistic right now. Currently there are 25 5-star recruits on 247Sports (they will increase the number later), and 10 of them have already committed to other schools. And currently only five of the current 5-stars even have an offer from UW, and 3 of them are already committed to other schools.

If Fisch and his staff are as good at recruiting as they seem to be, there is a chance that UW can get one in the 2025 class. However, it seems unlikely at this point to expect UW to get more than one 5-star recruit in the 2025 class. But this is something that we could watch for over the next 9 months.

Poll

Will UW have any 5-star recruits in the 2025 class

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    No
    (537 votes)
  • 28%
    Just one
    (278 votes)
  • 17%
    2 or more
    (173 votes)
988 votes total Vote Now

Blue Chip Recruits

Blue Chip recruits are either 4-star or 5-star recruits, so total Blue Chip recruits in a class would be the combination of both.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl - Washington v Boise State Photo by David Becker/Getty Images

In Chris Petersen’s 2019 class, UW had 16 Blue Chip recruits. Three of those are still on UW’s roster (Kamren Fabiculanan, Cameron Davis, and Jacob Bandes). That has been the most in any class. The next-most was 11 in the 2020 class and then 10 in the 2018 class. Most of the top teams typically average over 15 Blue Chip recruits in a class. In the 2024 class, Georgia has 24, Oregon has 22, and Ohio State has 18.

Getting more than 16 Blue Chip recruits in the 2025 class may be possible for Coach Fisch, but it will take a lot of work to do it since neither of UW’s first 2 commits are Blue Chips. At Arizona, Fisch had 3 (out of 25) in his 2023 class and 5 (out of 23) in the 2022 class.

Poll

How many Blue Chip recruits will Fisch get in the 2025 class?

This poll is closed

  • 14%
    5 or fewer
    (139 votes)
  • 40%
    6-10
    (394 votes)
  • 35%
    11-15
    (338 votes)
  • 9%
    16 or more
    (92 votes)
963 votes total Vote Now

247Sports Average

Blue Chip recruits are great, but having 5 Blue Chips and 20 2-star recruits doesn’t help build up a roster as much as having 25 high 3-star recruits. And high 3-star recruits (rating of 88 or 89) is much better than low 3-star recruits (rating of 80 or 81). So the average from 247Sports might give a better indication of the overall quality of the class.

UW’s average has varied from a low of 84.34 in 2014 (Petersen’s first class) to a high of 90.36 in 2019. UW has had an average of over 88 in 6 of the last 7 classes, and is over 88 in the 2024 class.

It won’t be easy going from over 88 to over 90, but it is possible. It will take getting a lot of 4-star recruits to go along with highly-rated 3-star recruits. (Or, getting a couple of 5-star recruits would help raise the average.)

Poll

What will the average recruit rating be for the 2025 class (when it is finished in February 2025)?

This poll is closed

  • 13%
    Less than 88
    (104 votes)
  • 62%
    Between 88 and 90
    (470 votes)
  • 18%
    Between 90 and 91
    (139 votes)
  • 4%
    More than 91
    (34 votes)
747 votes total Vote Now

247Sports Recruiting Rank

The Rank is where UW ranks among all schools. In the past, UW has ranked as high as #15 in 2019 (with Petersen as the coach and after 3 straight NY6 bowl games) and as low as #96 in 2022 (DeBoer’s first class). The current 2024 class is #38, between BigTen schools Rutgers (#37) and Maryland (#39).

Recruiting rank is calculated based on the total number of commits as well as the 247Sports rating of each of the commits. It isn’t strictly a sum of those ratings; the value from each recruit diminishes the more commits that a school has. In other words, having 30 commits doesn’t double the points compared to having 15, but there is a benefit from having more commits. This article from the BYU 247Sports site goes through an example to explain it: https://247sports.com/college/byu/Article/How-Are-247-Recruiting-Rankings-Calculated-139730851/

We should expect a much larger 2025 recruiting class than the 2024 class-in terms of high school recruits. Coach Fisch has said that he wants to build the roster from high school recruiting (and then fill in holes from the Transfer Portal). So, even if the average rating for the recruits in the 2025 class does not improve, UW ranking should improve even though additional commits don’t add a lot-but they would add something, and the difference between UW at #38 and the #29 team (Purdue) is only about 4%; and about a 10% improvement would get UW into the top 25.

But if UW wants to get to the top-15, it will take more than just adding more commits. The average for all of the commits would also need to be higher. When UW got to 15 back in 2019, the average rating for the commits was over 90. So basically, UW would need a class of over 25 with over half of the commits as 4-star recruits. That sounds great, but that is a long way from where UW is now.

Subjective Measures

It isn’t always possible to measure a class just based on the measures above. Taking a couple of highly-rated QB’s can boost your average and your ranking, but it is rare to get both to stick around long enough to get quality play from both. On the other hand, a team can be in a lot better shape if they can get 3, 4, or 5 very good offensive linemen that they can develop. And having some blue chip recruits at positions on the defensive side is arguably more important than ones on the offense.

For this subjective measure, it would look at what the positions for the commits, how many were needed at that position, and how good the ones at the key positions are.

Poll

If Coach Fisch achieves his goal of having the 2025 recruiting class be the best ever, what will that mean?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Largest class of high school recruits (more than 33)
    (33 votes)
  • 1%
    Most 5-star recruits (more than 1)
    (12 votes)
  • 24%
    Most Blue Chip recruits (more than 16)
    (176 votes)
  • 35%
    Highest recruit average (more than 90.36)
    (249 votes)
  • 30%
    Highest team ranking (higher than #15)
    (216 votes)
  • 2%
    Other (explain below)
    (20 votes)
706 votes total Vote Now