Comparing 2024 Recruiting to the 2023 Class

The last week (or so) of June was big for UW recruiting as they were able to get 11 commitments from the official visitors. If that sounds familiar, UW had something similar happen with the 2023 class when they got 12 commitments between June 20th and July 1st of last year.

Because of the similarity, I thought about comparing the recruiting class this year (with the class of 2024) to where UW was at this point last year. This seems to be a good time to do this since most of the initial wave of commitments is completed (at least as far as the recruits that UW is looking at). And then let’s look to see where that might lead the 2024 class by the end of the recruiting cycle by looking at what happened with the 2023 class after this time last year.

Comparing Commitments

To start, here’s who had committed to UW by July 14^th of 2022 (for the class of 2023).

By mid-July of last year, UW had a pretty solid and complete class. They had 18 commits and had recruits at just about every position. On the slightly negative side, they had just three 4-star recruits at that point and the average 247 Sports grade was 86.89. (That is okay, but not great. ) The average 247 Sports Composite was only slightly better at 87.36. As a comparison, Wisconsin finished with the 38th best Composite average for the 2023 class with 87.32.

Here’s the current commitment list for the class of 2024.

*-No composite rating

Comparing the current commits to last year at this point, I note several things.

• First, like last year, there is a good distribution of positions. The only position not represented currently is RB. However, more recruits should be expected at some positions like WR, LB, OL, and DB. So it appears to be a good start, but (obviously) not as complete as last year at this point. Currently one third of the commits are defensive linemen (4), but that isn’t surprising given that they will likely be losing 5 after this season.
• Next, there are twice as many 247 Sports Composite 4-stars than last year at this point despite having fewer total commits. One half are 4-stars this year compared to 1/6^th last year at this time.
• However, there are fewer commits with a 4-star grade from 247Sports (90 or above) than last year; 2 this year instead of 3. Two of the current 2024 commits have a 247 Sports grade of 90 or better and a 4-star composite (Paki Finau and Noah Carter). The other 4 with a Composite 4-star have a 247 Sports grade that is close to, but not yet a 90 or above (87, 88, or 89).
• The average 247 Sports grade for all commits is higher. Currently the average of all of UW’s commits is 87.7-almost a full point above last year at this time. This year only one out of the 12 commits has a grade of 85 or below (Omar Khan). Last year, 6 out of the 18 (1/3^rd) had a grade of 85 or below. Clearly 247 Sports currently thinks that the quality of commits this year is higher.
• The average for the 247 Sports Composite is 88.17; last year it was 87.36. So, it isn’t just the 247Sports recruiting analysts; other recruiting services (which make up the Composite) also think more of the commits for 2024 so far.

For whatever reason, DeBoer is getting more interest from more of the higher-rated recruits this year than last year. That shouldn’t be a surprise given what UW did on the field last season.

One other note is that of the commits for the 2023 class at this point last year, 2 of them ended up decommitting. UW has had 3 decommits in the 2024 class so far-all of which have committed to other Pac-12 schools.

Changes Since Committing

That leads to the next section which is a comparison of where the 2023 class was at this time last year to where it ended up. Anyone can look up the final commitment list for 2023. What this next table does is to compare the grades of the commits at this time last year (mid July) to where they ended up. (Only recruits that stayed committed are included.)

• Three of UW’s commits were bumped up from a 3-star to a 4-star (Jackett, Holmes, and Hatchett).
• The 247 Sports grades increased for 9 of the 16 commits-more than half. (The grades for one of the 2 decommits also increased.)
• One commit did drop from a 4-star to a 3-star (Anthony James) and had his grade decrease (a relatively large decrease, 6 points). He was one of two to have his grade decrease-the other was Curly Reed (from 91 to 90).
• Overall, the average 247 Sports grade for UW’s commits increased slightly from 87.13 to 87.75. (The 87.13 is slightly higher than the 86.89 above because it doesn’t include the two players that decommitted.)

We probably shouldn’t expect that more than half of the current commits will have their grades increase. However, we should expect that the grades for some will go up; hopefully none go down. The grades for some have already gone up since they committed: Dermaricus Davis from 87 to 88 and Noah Carter from 88 to 90.

Because there are a few that are close (between a 3-star and a 4-star), it is possible that some may have their grades get bumped up. But it is also possible that some may have their stars go down-especially since 3 of the 4 commits with 4 stars in the Composite do not have 247Sports grades of 90 or above. It is hard to predict, but my guess is that we could see as few as two or as many as eight Composite 4-stars among the 12 current commits by next February.

Closing the Classes

Between July 14^Th of last year and February of this year, UW added 5 recruits to the 2023 class. And, as mentioned above, they also lost 2 commitments. Here are the ones that were added and how their final grade compared to where they were in mid-July of 2022.

*-indicates no grades in July of 2022

^-indicates took official visit in summer of 2022

Interestingly, only two of the 5 late commits took an official visit to UW. Because he reclassified late, Austin Mack was not eligible to take an official visit before he committed-but he did visit unofficially (several times, I believe). Caleb Presley did not take an official visit, but he had visited unofficially several times. For some reason, Kahlee Tafai never took an official visit that I’m aware of-although I’m sure that he visited unofficially before committing. Taeshaun Lyons took his official visit last June, while Thaddeus Dixon took his in December.

It is fair to say that, from a star and grade point of view, UW closed the recruiting class stronger. Over half of the new commits were 4-stars, including the 3 highest-graded recruits in the class. The average grade of these was 89.4 (compared to 86.89 for the early commits).

The other note is that one of the 5 was a flip (from Oregon).

We obviously can’t predict the future, but there are some things we can say about the 2024 class.

• First, it is still possible that some of the uncommitted recruits that took official visits over the summer may (and are currently uncommitted) may still decide to commit to UW. These include Kwazi Gilmer, Cannon Skidmore, Ikinasio Tupou, and Jericho Johnson. It is doubtful that they will get all of them, but one, two, or even three should be possible.
• Second, it is possible that DeBoer may be able to flip a recruit that is currently committed to another school. Last year that happened with an in-state recruit. Given the number of in-state recruits with a UW offer and who have already committed to other schools, it is a fair bet that they could do it again-especially with a good 2023 season.
• It is also possible that they could lose a commit to another school (decommitment). It could be because another school, especially a blue blood program, goes after one of UW’s commits (like Ohio State did with Lincoln Kienholtz last year), or it could be a ‘mutual agreement’ (which can be code for a recruit not living up to what UW expected when they accepted the commitment). It is also possible that UW is able to keep all of their current commits. Again, with a good year, there would be fewer schools that could offer UW’s commits more (in terms of at school and on the field).
• We may see some official visitors during the season, although I don’t expect many. And there will likely be a few in December (and maybe even January) as DeBoer makes a push to close out the class.
• Finally, I’ll mention that DeBoer closed by filling some of the positions of need-getting a QB and 2 CB’s. Where will UW’s biggest positions of need be in 2024? That is hard to know for sure, but WR, TE, and LB are ones that seem to have the least depth as of now. It is possible that UW could fill them with transfers, but I think that DeBoer will first look at high school and JC recruits and then use transfers to fill in any remaining holes-especially ones that pop up after the season ends.

Closing Thoughts

UW’s current 2024 recruiting class is ranked about #49, but it is higher if you look at the average rating (top-25). I think Husky fans should expect that both UW’s ranking and the average rating to increase before the end of this recruiting cycle. Last year they finished #26 in the 247Sports rankings with an average of 88.14. Given where they are now, especially considering where they were last year at this time, improving on both of those seems quite possible-especially with another good season like last year.