How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Sunday, 2/26/23
Tip-Off Time: 3:00 pm PT
Location: Palo Alto, California
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +7
Stanford Cardinal 2022-23 Statistics:
Record: 11-17 (5-10)
Points For per Game: 69.0 (222nd)
Points Against per Game: 67.8 (98th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (54th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (163rd)
Strength of Schedule: 49th
Stanford’s Key Players:
G- Michael Jones, Sr. 6’5, 205: 9.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 43.5% FG, 31.9% 3pt, 78.4% FT
1st Game Against UW: 7 pts (0/4 3pt), 6 reb, 2 ast
G- Spencer Jones, Sr. 6’7, 225: 13.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.9 apg, 41.6% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 78.4% FT
1st Game Against UW: 12 pts (4/16 FG), 6 reb, 3 stl
G- Harrison Ingram, So. 6’7, 230: 10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 39.6% FG, 33.0% 3pt, 59.0% FT
1st Game Against UW: 9 pts (4/10 FG), 9 reb, 2 ast
G- Brandon Angel, Jr. 6’8, 240: 8.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 47.2% FG, 30.8% 3pt, 78.3% FT
1st Game Against UW: 7 pts (3/7 FG), 2 reb, 3 ast
C- Maxime Reynaud, So. 7’1, 250: 8.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 55.2% FG, 27.3% 3pt, 50.0% FT
1st Game Against UW: 4 pts (2/8 2pt), 3 reb, 2 ast
When these two teams faced off the first time, Washington was on a 5-game losing streak while Stanford had started out 0-5 in conference play. The Huskies handled the Cardinal without much of a problem and Stanford ended up 0-7 in the Pac-12 standings. After that they won 4 straight to right the ship a little but have now lost 5 of their last 6 with the only win bizarrely coming over Arizona.
Since that first game Stanford’s offense has come to life while their defense has regressed. Stanford actually ranks 4th in Pac-12 play in offensive efficiency. They’re 1st in the Pac-12 in 3-pt% during conference play as several players have shaken out of slumps and are 2nd in offensive rebound rate. That’s not a bad combination to win the possessions battle and shoot well from the outside.
If there has been a weakness it has been about the free throws. Stanford is 11th in the conference in free throw rate and 12th in performance at the stripe once they get there. If the game ends up being close late that’s something to monitor. Overall though Stanford is a bit of a finesse team despite having the 8th tallest lineup in the country.
That size advantage should theoretically give them a life on defense but it hasn’t at all. Stanford is 11th in Pac-12 play in defensive efficiency ahead of only Cal. Teams are scorching a 38.6% from deep against them (9% worse than UW’s defense) and also make 52.7% of 2’s (6% worse than UW’s defense).
Despite the height across the board there’s not a true rim protector out there. 7-1 Maxime Reynaud is a good rebounder but blocks shots at a comparable rate to Nate Roberts last year. Braxton Meah absolutely dominated Reynaud in the first matchup and it would be a welcome sight to see him do it again. Meah had 21 points that game on 8/10 shooting but hasn’t scored more than 12 in the 11 games since as defenses adjusted. I’m guessing Stanford will try to defend him differently this time too.
Washington has been pretty bad on the road this season with wins over only Colorado and Cal. Meanwhile, Stanford is pretty darn solid at home. The only home game since December that they’ve lost by more than 5 points was to UCLA on December 1st. Since that point Stanford is 6-4 at Maples with losses by 3, 5, 4, and 4 points.
This is a different offense than Washington encountered back in Seattle. This version of the Cardinal are absolutely capable of putting up a lot more points than Cal or OSU in UW’s last 2 games despite also residing near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. I don’t know that I expect the Huskies to put up 70 points on just about anyone these days which means I see the Cardinal pulling it out heading into the regular season finale next week.
Max’s Record this Year: 21-8 Straight Up, 16-12-1 Against The Spread
Washington Huskies- 65, Stanford Cardinal- 73