How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Thursday, 2/2/23
Tip-Off Time: 6:00 pm PT
Location: Los Angeles, California
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +17.5
UCLA Bruins 2022-23 Statistics:
Record: 17-4 (8-2)
Points For per Game: 74.8 (74th)
Points Against per Game: 60.6 (11th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 115.6 (20th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.3 (3rd)
Strength of Schedule: 19th
UCLA’s Key Players:
G- Tyger Campbell, Sr. 5’11, 180: 13.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, 39.2% FG, 37.0% 3pt, 83.7% FT
Campbell 1st UW Game Stats: 15 points (4/7 3pt), 11 assists, 2 turnovers
G- David Singleton, Sr. 6’4, 210: 10.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 46.0% FG, 44.1% 3pt, 89.7% FT
Singleton 1st UW Game Stats: 14 points (4/9 FG), 3 rebounds, 1 steal
G- Jaylen Clark, Fr. 6’5, 205: 13.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.7 spg, 47.8% FG, 32.7% 3pt, 71.4% FT
Clark 1st UW Game Stats: 2 points (1/9 FG), 11 rebounds, 3 steals
F- Jaime Jaquez, Sr. 6’7, 217: 16.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 49.0% FG, 29.8% 3pt, 71.7% FT
Jaquez 1st UW Game Stats: 17 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal
C- Adem Bona, Fr. 6’10, 235: 8.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 65.0% FG, 63.5% FT
Bona 1st UW Game Stats: 18 points, 2 rebounds, 3 blocks
UCLA is coming off a 2-game losing streak. So they’re technically not unbeatable. Washington has that going for them. Other than that though it’s hard to find a lot of positives going into this one.
When these two teams played one another last month it went about the same way that Saturday’s game against Arizona went. Things were somewhat competitive until we got close to halftime and then the wheels completely fell off for the Dawgs. The loss to Arizona was mostly about the defense getting obliterated but against UCLA it was a completely hapless offense.
The Huskies shot just 2/25 on 3-pointers against the Bruins. It’s not a surprise that Washington struggled against UCLA. They have one of the elite defenses in the country. Even still, opponents shoot about 30% on them from deep on average. Washington could shoot the ball poorly tonight and still more than double their 3-point percentage from the previous game. It will take some serious regression not just to the mean but past it in the other direction for the Huskies to eclipse 65 points let alone get over 50 this time.
There’s still a chance for the Huskies to have some success inside. Braxton Meah was the only Husky in double figures last time around scoring a then career high 21 points on 9/10 shooting. UCLA center Adem Bona is physically impressive but is at his best on the offensive glass. His defensive rebounding numbers are extremely sub par for a center and if Washington is to sniff the upset it will involve Meah ending up with 6+ second chance points. That may be more difficult as teams have figured out how to better defend Meah since he’s averaging just 4.5 points in the last 5 Husky contests after averaging 11.2 points in the 5 previous games.
On the defensive end for UW this is a UCLA team that somehow ranks among the lowest in the country in both the percentage of their points that come at the 3-point or the free throw line. Which means they’re 7th nationally in percentage of points coming off 2’s. Jaime Jaquez has a fantastic midrange game and great passing ability which makes him ideal to take up the open spot in middle of the zone at the free throw line. Tyger Campbell is 2nd in the conference in assist rate during conference play and had 11 last time around. David Singleton is one of the best shooters in the country even if he’s in a slump (3 games out of his last 5 with no 3-point make after making at least 1 in every other game).
Considering that Washington was blown out by 25 points at home in the first matchup and now have to play inside Pauley Pavilion it’s not crazy to think UW could lose by 30+ this time. Even against UCLA’s defense though it would be almost impossible for the 3-point shooting to be that bad again. I’m expecting this game to look something like the game at Arizona State where the Huskies are able to keep within striking distance through maybe 25 minutes but struggle mightily over the next 10 before covering the spread in garbage time.
Max’s Record this Year: 10-4 Straight Up, 8-5-1 Against The Spread
Washington Huskies- 62, UCLA Bruins- 76