How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Monday, 11/6/22
Tip-Off Time: 8:30 pm PT
TV: (Edit: It used to show Pac-12 Arizona on the school site. Now it says Pac-12 Network. Your best bet is to use the streaming link if you get Pac-12 Networks through your cable provider. Maybe one of the stations will end up showing it in the moment but don’t count on it. Every team plays tonight so there’s a major logjam in terms of tv availability even at 8:30p PT.)
Radio: Huskies Gameday App
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting Line: Washington Huskies -12
Bellarmine Knights 2022-23 Statistics (last year):
Record: 15-18 (9-9)
Points For per Game: 63.5 ppg (337th)
Points Against per Game: 69.6 ppg (136th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 102.3 (238th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 110.2 (286th)
Strength of Schedule: 136th
Bellarmine Key Players (stats from last year):
G- Peter Suder, So. 6’5. 210: 9.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 45.0% FG, 27.3% 3pt, 78.9% FT
Suder came in as a true freshman last year and led Bellarmine in assist rate while finishing 2nd in assists per game due to playing time discrepancies. He’s not much of a deep threat and took 80% of his attempts inside the arc while essentially playing power forward in the 4-guard Bellarmine lineup. He shot 49% on post-ups last year so if he gets one of UW’s smaller guards switched onto him don’t be surprised if he takes them down to the block.
G- Ben Johnson, So. 6’3, 185: 11.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 45.5% FG, 39.0% 3pt, 78.3% FT
Another true freshman who made an instant impact was Johnson who finished second on the team in scoring. He shot 45% on unguarded 3-point attempts so Washington’s defense can’t lose track of him or he’ll make them pay. He’s a clear minus though on the defensive end and Washington has a serious mismatch with whoever he’s trying to guard.
G- Garrett Tipton, Sr. 6’4, 200: 12.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 47.6% FG, 39.4% 3pt, 89.2% FT
Last year’s leading scorer, Tipton made huge leaps to become an elite shooter. After shooting 27% and 63% on 3’s and FTs respectively as a sophomore, he improved to 39% and 89% as a junior. He shot 41% on both guarded and unguarded catch and shoot opportunities so he’ll gladly knock one down with a hand in his face. He’s not just a shooter though as most of his attempts were from 2-point range and he was a very good finisher at the rim last season.
G- Alec Phiem, Sr. 6’5, 205: 7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44.6% FG, 24.0% 3pt, 87.3% FT
Last year Phiem was terrible from 3-pt range but he shot over 40% from deep his first two seasons so Washington still has to guard him from that range. He rarely strayed inside the arc but has shot over 60% on 2’s all three years he has played at Bellarmine. He’s also one of Bellarmine’s better defensive rebounders in their 4-guard attack.
C- Langdon Hatton, Jr. 6’10, 240: 3.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.3 bpg, 58.0% FG, 61.3% FT
Last year Hatton started the season as a reserve but ended up starting Bellarmine’s final 6 games after transferring in from William & Mary. He’s much more of a cutter and transition player than a true low post scorer. His rebounding numbers are also worse than you’d want from a center but he’s Bellarmine’s tallest player so I expect he’ll be asked to combat Washington’s major size advantage.
There’s no question that Washington should win this game. Bellarmine is entering just their 4th season as a D-1 team. They are ranked between 190th and 232nd in the preseason by the major analytical models. That doesn’t exactly scream major threat to you.
But Bellarmine has one thing that major programs usually don’t want to see in the first tune up of the season. The Knights return 4 starters off last year’s team including 8 of their 9 leaders in minutes played. Only starting point guard and 5th leading scorer Juston Betz departs from last year’s team which means there is a lot of continuity and chemistry returning for Bellarmine.
That stands in stark contrast to the Huskies who brought in 6 new transfers, 2 new freshmen, and get back 1 key player from injury. Washington got the advantage of an international trip to have some extra practice opportunities and looked dynamic in their blowout exhibition win over D-II Saint Martin’s last week. Still, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Bellarmine is able to take an opening blow from the Huskies and stay standing.
Washington is also adjusting to a new defensive system having abandoned their zone for a full-time man-to-man scheme. They are hoping to play fast and frequently get out in transition. That stands in contrast to Bellarmine who played at one of the slowest paces in the country last year (357th of 361). The Knights made headlines upsetting Louisville in the season opener last year but we of course later learned that the Cardinals were historically bad. Games at Clemson, Duke, UCLA, and Kentucky (yikes) all finished between 10 and 20 points.
Washington was without star freshman Wesley Yates as well as starting center Braxton Meah during last week’s exhibition. Both were reported last week as being expected to play tonight but we’ll see how effective they are. The Dawgs got back backup center Franck Kepnang recovering from a torn ACL but he played limited minutes and will likely still be on a restriction tonight. The Huskies’ pronounced height advantage gets lessened if 6’10 Wilhelm Breidenbach gets the start at center.
I would love to think that Washington’s high flying new offense and pressure defense overwhelms Bellarmine for a blowout victory. But expect the Knights to try to bog down the game and with Washington’s injury situation I’m going to call for a closer outcome. Also watch for Bellarmine’s offense which almost never dribbles and is a big departure from every other team the Huskies will see this season. The Knights cover but never seriously challenge for a victory.
Washington Huskies- 69, Bellarmine Knights- 60