FanPost

Checking in on how my guess at the post-season rankings turned out

Before the season I took a stab at what I thought the end of the year might look like. You can see it in detail here: https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2023/8/14/23831754/joes-pre-season-2023-24-season-top-25-prediction-not-a-pre-season-top and here's the compacted version of that:

1. Alabama (Predicted 12-0; actual 11-1 ranked #8) - The difference in this one is the Texas game. I think Nick Saban was just as shocked as I was that they didn't have their quarterback figured out to start the season.
2. Georgia (Predicted 11-1; actual 12-0 ranked #1) - Pretty close to how I expected the season to go for them. I thought Tennessee would give them a game but wow did they fall off this year.
3. LSU (Predicted 11-1; actual 9-3 ranked #13) - We all see the team I thought they'd be on one half of the ball. But whatever happened to their defense this year is a topic candidate for a 60 minutes episode.
4. Ohio State (Predicted 11-1; actual 11-1 ranked #6) - Didn't quite hit the prediction perfectly as I thought they'd drop the ND game instead of the Michigan one. Kind of an interesting season all things considered. Unfortunate for them that their loss is to Michigan because this year that should hold them out of the playoff.
5. Notre Dame (Predicted 11-1; actual 9-3 ranked #17) - They fell short of my expectation by quite a bit with the 3 road losses.
6. Washington (Predicted 11-1; actual 12-0 ranked #3) - There's a pattern through the top Pac-12 teams in that where USC underperformed is where I missed on a lot of predictions. I had us losing to USC and winning all the rest. Never been happier to be wrong. Here's hoping we can get the offense back on track because we need the September offense if we're going to bring this thing home.
7. Florida State (Predicted 10-2; actual 12-0 ranked #4) - Someone get Kang the Conquerer on the line because I am certain there's an atlernate universe out there where LSU won the opener and these two teams ended up exactly where I predicted them. FSU at 12-0 is a big surprise to me.
8. Michigan (Predicted 10-2; actual 12-0 ranked #2) - I will admit that I was very wrong on the strength of Michigan. But... We also don't know much about the strength of the Big-10. The schedules for Michigan and Penn State have been Charmin soft and Ohio State didn't look great against Notre Dame. We'll see in the playoff what the 2023 Big-10 is made of.
9. USC (Predicted 10-2; actual 7-5 unranked) - Guess it wasn't finally the year USC puts its talent to use.
10. Texas (Predicted 10-2; actual 11-1 ranked #7) - The difference in this one was the Alabama game. I suspect the committee is leaning heavily into the QB troubles that Alabama had in weeks 1-3 when they assess these two teams together. They likely feel Alabama would win a neutral field rematch.
11. Tennessee (Predicted 10-2; actual 8-4 ranked #21) - What a dumpster fire of a year for the Vols. I have NO IDEA why the committee has them ranked and can only explain it with preconceived bias. Not only do they have no wins over top 25 teams but they were b lown out by the 3 they faced.
12. Clemson (Predicted 9-3; actual 8-4 ranked #23) - I think I was pretty darn close on this one. I had them losing to ND and beating FSU and they flipped those. The Duke loss was the head scratcher.
13. Utah (Predicted 9-3; actual 8-4 unranked) - Cam rising missing the whole season changed things for Utah but they still ended up playing about to the level I thought they would.
14. Penn State (Predicted 9-3; actual 10-2 ranked #10) - Okay I got it wrong in the win/loss stat but other than that the season played out EXACTLY how I predicted it would. I'm so adamant about how fraudulent this team has been in back to back seasons that I'm going to quote what I said here for you so you don't have to click through to read it: "I'm expecting another season in which PSU coasts along with a top 10 ranking for no reason other than they haven't yet lost to both Michigan and Ohio State. The only difference this year being they will finally stop getting lucky and will lose one to someone else."
15-17. Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma (Predicted 9-3; actual 8-4/5-7/10-2 and ranked #25/unranked/#12, respectively) - Didn't see TCU falling off that badly. KState and Oklahoma I think I got down pretty good.
18. Ole Miss (Predicted 9-3; actual 10-2 ranked #11) - Pretty close to accurate.
19. O****n (Predicted 9-3; actual 11-1 ranked #5) - Thought Utah and USC would get 'em but those teams really fell apart this year. I know everyone is convinced they're some juggernaut but it's important to keep in mind that their best win is still just 8-4 Oregon State the day after their head coach told them he was leaving. They're one of the best teams in the country at utilizing their talent advantage (see Nix's YAC being ~60% of his passing yards).
20. North Carolina (Predicted 9-3; actual 8-4 unranked) - About as accurate as could be expected. The ACC was a bunch of good but not great teams and it showed on the field this year.
21. Iowa (Predicted 9-3; actual 10-2 ranked #16) - Good God I don't know how this team stumbled to 10-2. Oh wait - Yes I do! Penn State was the only top 25 team they faced all season (both at the time AND now).
22. UCLA (Predicted 9-3; actual 7-5 unranked) - I'm still not sure how they lost to both ASU and Cal. Everything else went as expected.
23. Tulane (Predicted 11-1; actual 11-1 ranked #22) - Nailed them dead on.
24. Boise State (Predicted 10-2; actual 7-5 unranked) - This one was all over the place. I had their 0-2 start pegged but I didn't see them firing their head coach and losing 3 road games after. The MWC was surprisingly tough this season as evidenced by the 3-way tie for 1st.
25. Fresno State (Predicted 10-2; actual 8-4 unranked) - They somehow went 0-3 to end the year. I don't know what caused that. Did they have injuries? Everything looked on track until November.