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Pac-12 Rankings and Projections After Week 12

Where do the Pac-12 teams stand before the final regular season weekend

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 18 UCLA at USC Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Pac-12 is down to having just 4 teams in the CFP rankings, led by UW at #4. Utah dropped out after their loss to Arizona, although there is some debate as to whether they deserve to be in the top-25. With UW moving up to #4, it is the first time that a Pac-12 team has been in the top 4 since USC was #4 in week 14 last year.

Other Rankings

The same 4 teams in the CFP rankings are in the top-25 in both the AP and Coaches polls. In addition, both Utah and UCLA are getting votes in both. Utah has enough votes to be #26 in the AP and #28 in the Coaches poll. UCLA is #35 in the AP and #34 in the Coaches poll. Obviously the latest loss by USC is keeping them from getting any votes.

Here is the “New Cool Chart” showing where all of the Pac-12 schools are ranked in the Massey Composite Ranking.

A few notes...

  • These rankings have Oregon State above Arizona despite Arizona having beaten Oregon State-and being ahead in the polls.
  • Similarly, USC is ranked above UCLA despite the recent head-to-head meeting.
  • Utah is in the top-25 here despite being out in the polls.
  • Arizona is one of the teams that has risen the most since the preseason. Only UNLV, Liberty, Miami (Ohio), and Jacksonville State have risen more.
  • Five of the Pac-12 teams are within 10 places of where they were in the preseason, although that may change after this weekends games.

Advanced Stats

The F+ rankings have offensive and defensive components along with the overall ranking. Here is a look at how those rankings have changed over the last 6 weeks.

Pac-12 Offensive F+ Rankings

School Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
School Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
Arizona 18 20 20 19 21 15
Arizona State 101 100 87 94 96 104
California 66 57 54 54 42 40
Colorado 37 37 33 42 32 37
Oregon 3 3 2 2 2 1
Oregon State 11 8 11 13 9 11
Stanford 89 90 81 87 90 91
UCLA 36 30 29 35 51 53
USC 6 4 4 5 4 6
Utah 55 51 58 46 45 55
Washington 1 5 5 4 3 4
Washington State 44 46 42 55 49 34

Pac-12 Defensive F+ Rankings

School Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
School Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
Arizona 60 67 59 50 47 39
Arizona State 62 43 48 62 50 67
California 63 68 63 63 73 76
Colorado 112 113 107 106 106 113
Oregon 20 23 16 14 18 14
Oregon State 48 45 43 37 31 32
Stanford 104 109 108 99 111 112
UCLA 16 12 11 13 13 9
USC 61 69 72 88 102 101
Utah 7 7 12 9 11 16
Washington 25 24 31 35 42 37
Washington State 34 46 66 57 65 54

Most of the teams have not seen their rankings change much over the last six weeks.

On the offensive side, Cal has seen their offense improve the most. For Husky fans, their next opponent (WSU) has seen their ranking go up a bit, although it has fluctuated up and down over the last six weeks. UCLA’s offense has dropped-not surprising after going 2 games scoring a total of 17 points.

On the defensive side, both Arizona and Oregon State have seen improved rankings for their defense. While Cal’s offense has improved, their defense has dropped. UW’s defense has dropped as well-but so has WSU’s. The biggest change has been to USC’s defense which has dropped considerably-even though it wasn’t that good after week 7. And while they did play a couple of the top offenses (UW and Oregon), it has also dropped while playing some more mediocre offenses (Utah, Cal, and UCLA).

Projections

There are two games this weekend which will determine who plays UW in the Pac-12 title game. Cal and WSU are each looking for one more win to be bowl-eligible; will they get it? Let’s look at the projections for this week’s games.

Win Percentages for Week 13 Games

Visitor ESPN FPI Win % Massey Win % Home ESPN FPI Win % Massey Win %
Visitor ESPN FPI Win % Massey Win % Home ESPN FPI Win % Massey Win %
Oregon State 19.1% 24% Oregon 80.9% 76%
Notre Dame 95.8% 93% Stanford 4.2% 7%
Washington State 11.2% 22% Washington 88.8% 78%
Arizona 84.3% 68% Arizona State 15.7% 32%
California 26.8% 27% UCLA 73.2% 73%
Colorado 12.8% 8% Utah 87.2% 92%

There are heavy favorites in most of the games this weekend. Two of the closest games are the ones that will influence who plays UW in the Pac-12 Championship game: Oregon-Oregon State and Arizona-Arizona State.

The differences between the ESPN FPI win percentage and the Massey win percentage are small for most of the games; only the Apple Cup and Territorial Cup games have much of a difference-and even then they both have the same favorites.

Bowl Games

There are 7 Pac-12 teams that are bowl eligible. There are two teams on the bubble, but as the win percentages above indicate, neither Cal or WSU are likely to make a bowl game this year.

As a reminder, the Rose Bowl this year will be used for one of the two CFP semi-final games, so the winner of the Pac-12 will not necessarily be going there. (The Sugar Bowl will host the other semi-final game.) The CFP committee will assign the Pac-12 champion to one of the other ‘New Years Six’ bowls. There are two that are available for at-large (not tied to specific conferences) bids and those are the most likely for the Pac-12 champion. Those are the Fiesta Bowl and the Cotton Bowl.

The CFP will decide which teams will play in each of the six NY6 bowl games. The top ranked team will be able to play in the bowl closest to them, and they will be playing the #4 team. The #2 and #3 teams will play in the other semi-final bowl game. The committee will assign teams for the other NY6 games based on their final rankings and the conference affiliations for each of the other bowl games.

Most bowl projections have two Pac-12 teams in the NY6 bowl games and the other 5 bowl-eligible teams in the five Pac-12 affiliated bowls. If Cal or WSU was to become bowl-eligible, then there the likely bowl for them would be the Independence Bowl.

Poll

Which bowl game do you think UW will play in this year?

This poll is closed

  • 72%
    Rose Bowl (CFP semi-final)
    (292 votes)
  • 6%
    Sugar Bowl (CFP semi-final)
    (27 votes)
  • 17%
    Fiesta Bowl
    (70 votes)
  • 1%
    Cotton Bowl
    (8 votes)
  • 1%
    Other bowl game
    (5 votes)
402 votes total Vote Now