TLDR for the lazy readers: If Utah beats Arizona UW is guaranteed a spot in Vegas regardless of UW game results.

Here we go with our second installment of this. With one more week behind us we have some very clear pictures now. First of all let's refresh on tiebreaking rules for the Pac-12. We went in depth on this last year and the conference didn't make any changes this year (because it's run by idiots).

You can find the official tiebreak policy here: https://pac-12.com/football/standings

The summary is as follows below.

Two Teams:

1. Head to head
2. Win % over next highest common opponent (continuing down the order)
3. Win % over all common conference opponents (makes no sense in two team tie but whatever...)
4. Win % of YOUR conference opponents
5. Total wins (including FCS)
6. Ranking on some stupid metric site

UW Beats OSU:

This is the easiest one. UW is in as the #1 seed in the conference and then you're left with the following scenarios:

1. O****n beats OSU and Zona loses any game - UW and O****n have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
2. OSU beats O****n and Zona wins out - This is an insane tiebreak scenario that I really wish would happen because the implications are hilarious. OSU and USC would likely be tied in the standings at 6-3 which means this comes down to win percentage of conference opponents. Zona missed Cal and O****n missed UCLA. The winner of the Cal/UCLA game would decide O****n's fate! If UCLA wins and is guaranteed a better record than Cal that would propel Zona into the championship game. If Cal wins that would leave UCLA and Cal potentially tied at 4-5 which would send us to the total wins where O****n gets the nod via their 3-0 non-conference record. (caveat: the rules are a bit ambiguous here on if we tiebreak OSU/USC or not. But if we did tiebreak them OSU would win by virtue of the H2H over O****n so Zona would go in that case.) - Any UCLA win under this scenario means UW and Zona have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
3. O****n loses out and Zona loses to Utah - Chaos, a lot of different ties could happen, we'll look at this next week if we have to because it brings in all the 3-loss teams which gets deep into tiebreak logic.

UW Loses to OSU and beats WSU:

This is the second most likely scenario and something that a lot of people around the country are now predicting. UW would be in as the #1 seed. Then the 2-seed gets really interesting because it keeps OSU in the hunt.

1. O****n wins out. That puts OSU at 3-losses. It no longer matters what Zona does because UW has that H2H tiebreak - UW and O****n have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
2. O****n beats OSU and loses to ASU while Zona wins out - See #2 above but O****n wins tiebreak by virtue of win over USC - UW and O****n have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
3. O****n loses to OSU and Zona loses any game - UW and OSU have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
4. O****n loses to OSU and Zona wins out - See #2 above but OSU wins by virtue of their win over Washington (highest placed common opponent) - UW and OSU have a rematch in Vegas.

UW Loses Out:

Okay time for the nightmare scenarios. We don't want to be in this area because it puts our fate in the hands of Arizona. Suffice to say - If Utah beats Arizona we are a lock for Vegas.

1. O****n wins out - UW and O****n have a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
2. OSU beats O****n, O****n beats ASU, and Zona wins out - A four way tie at 2-losses with UW, O****n, OSU, and Zona. UW and OSU are removed via loss to common opponent, WSU. Zona and O****n tiebreak the 1-seed and Zona takes that spot. Where we go from here is unclear but I believe we then restart to find the 2-seed. If we restart to find the 2-seed: O****n gets eliminated via 0-2 record in H2H leaving UW and OSU tied, OSU wins that - Zona and OSU play a rematch in Vegas. If we don't restart to find the 2-seed: Zona and O****n play in Vegas.
   
   
3. OSU beats O****n, O****n beats ASU, and Zona takes any loss - A three way tie at 2-losses with UW, O****n, and OSU. OSU wins the head to head over both and takes the 1-seed. UW wins the head to head over O****n and takes the 2-seed - OSU and UW play a rematch in Vegas.
   
   
4. OSU beats O****n, O****n loses to ASU, and Zona wins out. A three way tie where H2H isn't used because all are 1-1 against each other. Zona is the 1-seed with 3-0 common opponent record via win over WSU. OSU takes 2-seed via H2H over UW - Zona and OSU play in Vegas.
   
   
5. OSU beats O****n, Zona takes any loss - UW and OSU play a rematch in Vegas.