How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Thursday, 1/26/23
Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT
Location: Seattle, Washington
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +2.5
Arizona State Sun Devils 2022-23 Statistics:
Record: 15-5 (6-3)
Points For per Game: 72.5 (121st)
Points Against per Game: 66.6 (88th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 109.1 (84th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.2 (50th)
Strength of Schedule: 55th
Arizona State’s Key Players:
G- Frankie Collins, So. 6’1, 185: 10.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 38.8% FG, 31.9% 3pt, 63.0% FT
After playing sparingly as the backup point guard at Michigan last year Collins has come in and asserted his leadership over the team. He’s 15th nationally in assist rate and has been a tremendous distributor even if his shooting has been substandard. Collins is averaging fewer than 2 attempts per game on 3-pointers during conference play so the Huskies should play the drive and kick against him and let him shoot from deep if he wants.
Last UW game stats: 10 pts (2/6 FG), 1 reb, 2 ast, 1 to
G- D.J Horne, Sr. 6’1, 175: 11.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 35.9% FG, 32.4% 3pt, 80.0% FT
It had been a massive shooting slump for Horne who had never shot below 36% from 3 in a season before and started out 1/18 from deep in conference play. Then he went 4/9 from deep against UW and 5/9 in the next game versus Oregon. This year Horne has picked up his rebounding and playmaking to help compensate for the poor shooting.
Last UW game stats: 12 pts (4/12 FG), 1 reb, 1 ast, 2 to
G- Desmond Cambridge, Sr. 6’4, 180: 12.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 41.4% FG, 34.5% 3pt, 72.4% FT
The Nevada Cambridge brother transfer averaged at least 15.7 points per game in each of the last 4 seasons but has taken a step back with less playing time for the Sun Devils. His shooting stats are in line with recent seasons but the reduced minutes are responsible for the drop in counting stats. Cambridge is 1st in steal rate in conference play so far so he can be a menace on the defensive end as well.
Last UW game stats: 6 pts (2/9 FG), 3 reb, 7 ast, 2 blk
G- Devan Cambridge, Sr. 6’6, 215: 10.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.0 apg, 52.4% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 64.9% FT
The Auburn Cambridge brother transfer is off to a career best start shooting the ball and blocking shots playing as a small ball 4. Devan doesn’t take a lot of shots but when he gets the chance the ball usually goes in the basket. He took a season high in field goal attempts and tied his season high playing the Huskies the first time around but a lot of those came in transition.
Last UW game stats: 18 pts (9/14 FG), 4 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk
C- Warren Washington, Jr. 7’0, 225: 8.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 63.0% FG, 66.1% FT
Washington started his career at Oregon State before transferring to Nevada where he broke out allowing him to get back to the Pac-12. He’s been an elite rim protector so far ranking in the top-30 nationally in block rate while putting up good rebounding numbers and shooting nearly 70% from the field. Meah has to be more competitive in this matchup for the Huskies to have a chance this time around.
Last UW game stats: 7 pts (3/6 FG), 12 reb, 3 ast, 3 blk
If you didn’t watch the first game against Arizona State you may think to yourself that it was competitive. After all the Huskies only lost by 8 and were down just 2 points at halftime. However things quickly spiraled out of control after the break and ASU led by as many as 20 before the Huskies somehow scored 12 points in the final minute of the game mostly against walk-ons.
Washington capped off their 5-game losing streak with an incredibly poor shooting night before making three 3’s as part of that frantic finish and the misses plus live ball turnovers gave ASU plenty of fastbreak opportunities. The Sun Devils owned at the rim particularly in transition and finished with 9 made 3’s plus 11 dunks. If your opponent gets up to 20 of those combined the odds are you’ve badly lost the game.
In that first matchup it looked like ASU gradually figured out the zone as the game went on. Washington’s defense started out stifling the Sun Devils but eventually the floodgates seemingly opened as soon as everything clicked into place. ASU had 23 assists which meant assisting on nearly 80% of their baskets (compared to 58% for UW which is well above their season average). If the Huskies don’t make adjustments and ASU locks right back into that mode from the get go then this could be scary.
There are reasons to think though that the Huskies could have a better showing. Fouls were particularly important the first time around in Tempe. Braxton Meah committed 3 in the first half and his 4th right after halftime so that he only played a total of 14 minutes. During Washington’s 3-game winning streak immediately after the ASU loss Meah played at least 35 total minutes in every game and committed 4 total fouls. Having him in there for the majority of the time will greatly help UW’s ability to challenge at the rim.
The other difference is that Koren Johnson was unavailable in the first game. He has been inconsistent as can be expected from a true freshman but is shooting 45.5% on 3-pointers in conference play and gives the Huskies an extra option if at least one of Fuller/Williams/Menifield are struggling and is definitely not going to tolerate the opposing team turning into a layup line.
KenPom gives Washington a 45% chance to win this game which is the highest win expectancy for the Huskies until February 18th when they host OSU. There are 5 more games in between those dates. If Washington wants to have any shot at getting to .500 in conference by season’s end then they have to win games like this. I just need to see it happen against someone not named Colorado to believe the Dawgs can pull it out.
Max’s Record this Year: 16-5 Straight Up, 12-8-1 Against The Spread
Washington Huskies- 71, Arizona State Sun Devils- 78