Stanford Game Preview & How to Watch

How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Thursday, 1/12/23

Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com

Location: Seattle, Washington

DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies -2

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Stanford Cardinal 2022-23 Statistics:

Record: 5-10 (0-5)

Points For per Game: 68.3 (228th)

Points Against per Game: 66.7 (97th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 106.6 (93rd)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (111th)

Strength of Schedule: 13th

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Stanford’s Key Players:

G- Michael Jones, Sr. 6’5, 205: 10.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 40.0% FG, 28.2% 3pt, 73.6% FT

Transferring in from Davidson, Jones has kept up his odd year/even year 3-point shooting. He made 42%+ of his 3’s as a freshman and junior but has made less than 30% as a sophomore and senior. It’s Jamal Bey-esque. He’s still shooting a great percentage inside the arc though at nearly 60% when he does drive the ball which helping to keep him Stanford’s most efficient offensive option.

G- Spencer Jones, Sr. 6’7, 225: 12.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 0.8 apg, 39.2% FG, 30.3% 3pt, 81.3% FT

Spencer was supposed to be the other half of a Jones splash brothers duo but is shooting a career low from deep after shooting 38% for his career. His block rate, offensive rebound rate, and free throw shooting are all at career highs though in his 4th season and he’s still a good player. Washington is hoping he’s not quite finding his groove yet after going 7/21 on 3’s the last 3 games.

G- Harrison Ingram, So. 6’7, 230: 8.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 36.6% FG, 27.3% 3pt, 61.9% FT

A former 5-star, Ingram was good but not efficient as a freshman and expectations were through the roof when he turned down the draft to return to Stanford. Instead he has seemingly regressed on offense as his 2-pt, 3-pt, and FT shooting have all dipped. He still plays a point forward role and leads the Cardinal in assists per game at 6’7 somewhat similar to Drew Peterson at USC but the ball just doesn’t go in the basket often enough. In a win over UW last year though he had 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assists.

G- Brandon Angel, Jr. 6’8, 240: 7.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 44.2% FG, 22.2% 3pt, 93.3% FT

I had Angel marked down in the preseason as a breakout candidate but his 3-point shooting has fallen off a cliff after making 36% last year. That may be a mirage since outside of a 7-game stretch last year where he went 11/20 he’s a 26% shooter. Angel makes up for it though shooting 60% on 2’s and 93% from the line. He’s a good defensive rebounder but other than that doesn’t get a lot done on that end of the court.

C- James Keefe, Sr. 6’9, 240: 6.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 64.0% FG, 52.5% FT

Keefe missed last weekend’s game against Cal with a leg injury but was considered day-to-day so we’ll see if he’s available tonight. He’s a very good rebounder but is a last resort on offense who has taken over 80% of his shots in the paint. Think Nate Roberts though when it comes to shot blocking as he has only blocked a shot in 2 games this season (although somehow 3 shots in each of those games). He’ll split center time with 7’1 Maxime Reynaud who has been slightly better almost across the board except he’ll take about one 3-pointer for game and usually miss while Keefe knows his limitations a bit better.

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The Outlook

Washington fans are frustrated with Mike Hopkins but they’d be furious with Jerod Haase at the helm. At least Hopkins made an NCAA tournament and has a pair of Pac-12 coach of the year awards. Stanford is now in their 7th year with Haase in charge and they have only had a winning record in the Pac-12 once, have never made the tournament, and never finished in the top-40 at KenPom.

This year was going to be the one that changed that with most of last year’s team returning (including 5-star F Harrison Ingram) plus the addition of Davidson transfer Michael Jones. They rank 6th in minutes continuity which shows this is a team that should’ve had instant chemistry like UW in 2018. Instead, things have nosedived with Stanford on a 5-game losing streak. That includes most recently an embarrassing 22-point blowout loss to previously 2-13 Cal in which the Bears shot a mind boggling 16/22 on 3-point shots. Even against air most teams won’t shoot 73% on 3’s.

While the 5-10 record may lead you to believe Stanford is outright terrible, the loss to Cal is the only they’ve had to a team outside the top-80 at KenPom. 7 of their 10 losses came to top-51 teams and none of the other 3 were at home. While this is still a Stanford team with the talent to rise up and get you, there’s no question they’ve vastly underperformed expectations.

That starts on the offensive end where the Cardinal are 299th nationally in 3-point percentage despite ranking in the top-25% in 3-pointers taken. That’s not a good sign for a team especially when they’re also not good at taking care of the ball. When Stanford is able to get the ball inside they’re reasonably efficient making 53% of their 2-point attempts. That shouldn’t be a surprise since Stanford like always ranks in the top-10 in average height (no rotation player shorter than 6’2 and only two shorter than 6’5).

That length has given the Huskies problems in the past especially in preventing second chance points. That isn’t a strength for the Cardinal this year but it isn’t quite a weakness either and they should still be able to find success against the UW zone.

Things haven’t exactly been that much better on defense. Stanford has been superb at limiting second chance points by securing defensive rebounds and is good at forcing turnovers but teams shoot better than average against them at every level. Washington may struggle with Stanford’s size if Braxton Meah gets into foul trouble but this isn’t an intimidating defense.

This is a game where both teams should come in desperate. The Huskies are on a 5-game losing streak while Stanford is on a 5-game conference losing streak (11 of 12 going back to last year). If UW wants any chance to save their season then they have to sweep this week in what should be the easiest remaining 2-game stretch. Whether this is close or a comfortable Husky win depends on whether this team has checked out on Haase. I’ll go with UW but it certainly feels like the loser of this game is certainly getting fired and maybe sooner than later (the winner could also ultimately get fired too, don’t worry).

Prediction

Max’s Record this Year: 13-4 Straight Up, 9-7-1 Against The Spread

Washington Huskies- 71, Stanford Cardinal- 65