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Pac-12 Rankings Update After Week 1

Now that they have each played a game, which Pac-12 teams improved their rankings and which did not?

Pac-12 Football Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It could be argued that preseason predictions are based on almost nothing. Now that each Pac-12 team has played a game it is time to look at how well those preseason predictions look and at what the impact has been from those games.


There are 3 Pac-12 teams that are ranked in the major polls. Here is a summary of where the Pac-12 teams are and the changes from last week.

Pac-12 Schools in the Polls

School AP Poll Change Coaches Poll Change
School AP Poll Change Coaches Poll Change
USC 10 -4 12 -3
Utah 13 6 15 7
Oregon X 14 24 12
Pac-12 teams in polls including changes from preseason polling (negative number means a move up)

Oregon dropped out of the top-25 in the AP poll; they had enough points to essentially be #26. There are three other teams that received votes in the polls. UCLA received 6 points in the Coaches poll (good for #38) and Oregon State got 3 points (good for #43). Oregon State got 5 points in the AP poll (good for #38) and UCLA and Arizona got 1 point each in the AP poll (good for a tie, with Purdue for #41).

Athlon Sports has an updated top-25

· USC (#8)

· Utah (#13)

· Oregon (#15)

CBS Sports again ranked all FBS teams. Here are where the Pac-12 teams were slotted and the change from the preseason. You can find the full ranking of all 131 teams here:

CBS Sports Ranking of Pac-12 Teams

School Rank Change
School Rank Change
USC 10 -2
Utah 13 9
Oregon 30 16
Oregon State 38 -13
UCLA 39 6
UW 40 -5
Arizona 61 -30
WSU 62 8
California 77 2
Stanford 82 11
Arizona State 84 12
Colorado 103 5
Ranking of Pac-12 teams in CBS Sports poll including change from their preseason poll

Arizona made the biggest jump up and Oregon had the biggest fall. UW was one of just 4 Pac-12 teams that moved up.

Here’s a ranking of Pac-12 teams by On3.

In the article linked in the tweet, it does say that they think that UW could be moving up over the next few weeks. I would hope so given how WSU did against Idaho last weekend, plus who they play this weekend.

Team-Based Advanced Stats Rankings

Two of the more commonly mentioned advanced stats ratings for college football teams are the SP+ and the FEI ratings. Here are where the Pac-12 teams rank for each.

Pac-12 Teams’ Advanced Stats Rankings

School SP+ FEI
School SP+ FEI
Arizona 92 86
Arizona State 40 36
California 57 65
Colorado 108 95
Oregon 49 47
Oregon State 52 50
Stanford 71 70
UCLA 39 42
USC 34 38
Utah 24 11
Washington 53 34
WSU 73 45

The results are remarkably similar between the two ratings-except for UW and WSU where FEI has both teams notably higher.

Among other (mostly computer) rankings, UW is as high as #18 in the Sagarin ranking and as low as #97 in the ARGH Power Rankings. A summary of (currently) 44 different rankings for FBS teams can be found here: (I don’t know much about most of these. There are links near the top of the page to websites for each to find out more.) For now, UW’s average was 58.69 from those 44 rankings.

And it isn’t just UW which has a lot of variability from those different rankings. USC’s ranking is as high as #8 and as low as #91; Oregon is as high as #11 and as low as #101! I expect that there will be a lot less variability as more games get played.


One of the computer rankings in that list is ESPN’s FPI. Here is some of the updated ESPN FPI information for the Pac-12 teams.

ESPN FPI Data For Pac-12 Teams After Week 1

School FPI Rank FPI Change Win (proj) Win Change 6Wins% Win Conf %
School FPI Rank FPI Change Win (proj) Win Change 6Wins% Win Conf %
USC 14 -21 9.6 1.5 99.5% 36.8%
Utah 19 6 8.8 -0.6 98.7% 29.9%
UCLA 35 -4 8.5 0.2 98.0% 10.6%
Washington 40 -8 8.2 0.7 96.1% 8.2%
Oregon 44 21 6.9 -1.7 80.0% 6.9%
Arizona State 48 -2 6.8 0 80.3% 3.3%
Oregon State 51 -6 7.1 1.1 85.0% 2.6%
Stanford 61 -1 5 0 34.1% 0.7%
Arizona 69 -22 5.4 1.9 45.7% 0.4%
California 74 7 5.5 -0.1 51.2% 0.5%
WSU 89 10 4.1 -0.9 15.1% 0.0%
Colorado 96 12 2.2 -1.3 0.8% 0.0%
ESPN FPI data after week 1 including some changes since the preseason

‘6Wins%’ is the projection for getting 6 or more wins-hence making a bowl game.

Oregon’s chance to win the conference dropped from almost 20% to under 7%; their projected wins are down by almost 2; and their projection to make a bowl game dropped from over 97% to 80%. Arizona’s projection for making a bowl game improved from under 9% to over 45%. Despite the loss, Utah’s chances of winning the conference went up slightly and USC’s went from 7.5% to almost 37%-likely because Oregon’s chances went down.

ESPN Game Projections

The teams that were favored by ESPN’s FPI before last weekend’s games (including the Thursday and Friday games) won 10 of the 12 games featuring Pac-12 teams. The lone ‘upset’ was Arizona beating San Diego State since ESPN’s FPI had Arizona with only a 32.9% chance of winning. Oregon State was also a slight underdog in their game; they had a 49.8% chance of winning-so not much of a true ‘upset’. Most of the games were expected to be one-sided, so getting 10 out of 12 isn’t terribly impressive.

After including the data from the first games, ESPN updated the win percentages for the remaining games. Here are their projections for all of UW’s remaining games:

ESPN Win Projections For UW’s Remaining Games

Week Day Visitor Home UW Win Projection Change
Week Day Visitor Home UW Win Projection Change
2 10-Sep Portland State Washington 98.00% -0.2
3 17-Sep Michigan State Washington 45.00% 5.7
4 24-Sep Stanford Washington 69.90% 3.5
5 30-Sep Washington UCLA 35.80% 2.3
6 8-Oct Washington Arizona State 46.50% 4.3
7 15-Oct Arizona Washington 78.70% -5.4
8 22-Oct Washington California 62.50% 5.8
10 4-Nov Oregon State Washington 65.60% -0.6
11 12-Nov Washington Oregon 44.40% 18.1
12 19-Nov Colorado Washington 88.10% 8.2
13 26-Nov Washington Washington State 74.70% 12.8
UW win percentages for remaining games including change from the preseason projections

UW’s win percentage improved in almost every game-with just very slight drops against Portland State (which doesn’t make a lot of sense-but it isn’t much so nothing to be concerned about) and Oregon State (likely because of how well the Beavers played against Boise State). The improvements against UW’s two big rivals (Oregon and WSU) has to be encouraging to Husky fans. UW is favored in 7 of their remaining 11 games (same as before).

Here are some highlights (and lowlights) from each of the game-by-game projections for each of the other Pac-12 teams:

· Arizona improved their win percentage in every game except their game against USC-where it dropped slightly (-1.3 points).

· Arizona State’s win percentage dropped 11.2 points against USC (to 19.2%) and 12.4 points Arizona (to 56.5%); it increased 9.9 points to Colorado (to 72.1%). There was little change in their other games.

· California had a mix. Their chances went up against WSU and Colorado to the point where they are now favored, but went down against UNLV and Arizona (-13.7 points and -13.4 points respectively).

· Colorado is no longer favored in any game. Their best winning percentage is 42.8% in a home game against California.

· Oregon’s win percentage dropped in every game; they had the biggest drop of any Pac-12 team: -25.8 versus BYU. They are now no longer favored against BYU, Utah, or Oregon State.

· Oregon State is now favored against Fresno State and Oregon (they were underdogs in both games previously). Their win percentage improved against every team except USC.

· Stanford is only favored over Oregon State (51.8%) and WSU (76%).

· UCLA is no longer favored over USC. Their win percentage improved against Oregon (+16.4), but otherwise there was little change.

· USC’s win percentage improved in every game. They are favored in every game except Utah (44.1%) and Notre Dame (49.5%).

· Despite their loss, Utah is favored in all of their remaining game, although their win percentage against USC dropped from 73.2% to 55.9%.

· WSU’s win percentage dropped against all of their remaining opponents except Oregon (up 3.9 points). They are now only favored against Colorado State.

And finally, here are all of their winning percentages for this week’s Pac-12 games.

ESPN FPI Pac-12 Win Projections for Week 2

School Opponent Win %
School Opponent Win %
Arizona Mississippi State 22.10%
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State 21.10%
California UNLV 78.30%
Colorado @ Air Force 21.50%
Oregon Eastern Washington 95.70%
Oregon State @ Fresno State 52.20%
Stanford USC 25.40%
UCLA Alabama State 99.80%
USC @ Stanford 74.60%
Utah Southern Utah 99.40%
Washington Portland State 98%
WSU @ Wisconsin 7.10%

Now that you’ve seen where others have UW ranked, it is time to discuss how Husky fans are feeling about how UW is looking compared to other teams. Some people may need more games (understandable), but here is a poll if you have an opinion.


Based on the week 1 results, where should UW be ranked nationally?

This poll is closed

  • 9%
    (39 votes)
  • 74%
    (295 votes)
  • 13%
    (54 votes)
  • 2%
    (8 votes)
396 votes total Vote Now