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Pac-12 Preseason Rankings/Predictions for 2022

How are the Pac-12 teams predicted to do this year?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: JUL 29 Pac-12 Football Media Day Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Updated 8/26/2022 to fix typos and update ESPN FPI data.

Many of us are counting down the days until the first games. But before those get started, this is a look at what some of the predictions are for this season in the Pac-12. This will look at the preseason ratings predictions by some of the polls, magazines, and other sources.

Preseason Polls

There are 3 Pac-12 teams that are ranked in both the AP and Coaches polls.

Pac12 Schools in Polls

School AP Poll Coaches Poll
School AP Poll Coaches Poll
Utah 7 8
Oregon 11 12
USC 14 15
Ranking of Pac12 Schools in the major polls

USC going from a 4-8 team last year to a top-15 team is surprising, but not that surprising given the talent on the team (especially after the transfers) and who their coach is.

There are two other teams that received votes. UCLA received 2 points in the AP poll and 10 in the Coaches poll. Surprisingly, the other team getting votes was Oregon State which had 2 points in the Coaches poll.

Prior to the Pac-12 Media Day last month, the media covering the Pac-12 predicted the order of finish for the teams. As a reminder, divisions will not be used to determine who gets to play in the Pac-12 Championship game, so there is a single list of all 12 teams.

Ranking of Pac-12 Schools in the Pac-12 Media Poll

Rank School Points
Rank School Points
1 Utah (26) 384
2 Oregon (2) 345
3 USC (5) 341
4 UCLA 289
5 Oregon State 246
6 Washington 212
7 Washington State 177
8 Stanford 159
9 California 154
10 Arizona State 123
11 Arizona 86
12 Colorado 58
Pac12 Media Poll from July 28, 2022

The number in () next to some of the teams is the number of first place votes that team got.

Other places have also come up with their top-25 rankings. One of those is Sports Illustrated. They have 4 Pac-12 teams in their top-25:

  • Utah (#4)
  • USC (#9)
  • Oregon (#15)
  • UCLA (#23)

CBS Sports ranked not just the top-25, but all 131 teams. Here is where the Pac-12 teams were slotted in their rankings:

Ranking of Pac-12 Teams in CBS Sports Poll

Ranking School
Ranking School
4 Utah
12 USC
14 Oregon
45 Washington
51 Oregon State
54 WSU
71 Stanford
72 Arizona State
75 California
91 Arizona
98 Colorado

Other Preseason Rankings

There are other preseason top-25 rankings as well, from magazines like Phil Steele and Lindy, and from on-line magazines like College Football News and Pick Six Previews. There is a web site,, which summarizes a lot of the preseason magazine polls (there are 13 as of now). You can find their ‘consensus’ rankings as well as the rankings from each of the magazines here:

Their ‘consensus’ is a combination of the rankings from all of the sources. Here are where the Pac-12 teams end up in their ranking.

  • Utah (#6)
  • Oregon (#9)
  • USC (#19)
  • Oregon State (#44)
  • UCLA (#49)

Again a bit of a surprise to see Oregon State there. One publication, College Football Poll, actually has Oregon State at #21 in their top-25 rankings, which is why they are in the rankings. The schools not listed are not in the top-25 from any of the rankings.

This site also has rankings for the teams in each conference, including the Pac-12 conference. Because the Pac-12 has changed to taking the top-2 teams regardless of division, the Pac-12 rankings are done two different ways: one is a ranking by division and one is a ranking of all teams (no divisions). Some publications ranked one way and the others the other way.

Consensus Pac-12 Division Preseason Rankings

North Rank School
North Rank School
1 Oregon
2 Washington
3 Oregon State
4 California
6 Stanford
South Rank School
1 Utah
4 Arizona State
5 Arizona
6 Colorado
Preseason consensus rankings by division as compiled on

Here is the ranking without divisions:

Consensus Pac-12 Preseason Rankings

Division-Less Rank School
Division-Less Rank School
1 Utah
2 Oregon
5 Oregon State
6 Washington
8 Stanford
9 Arizona State
10 Arizona
11 California
12 Colorado
Preseason consensus rankings of Pac-12 as compiled on

If the division-less rankings seem inconsistent with the ones with divisions, that’s because it was different publications making the predictions. Some did it one way while others did it the other way. For example, with divisions, UW was either 2nd or 3rd in most publications (one had them 5th); without divisions, UW was as high as a tie for 4th or as low as 9th. (The one that has UW at 9th, College Football Poll, also has USC at 11th, Stanford at 4th, and Colorado at 6th in the Pac-12.

Some of you may be familiar with the Sagarin rankings. Jeff Sagarin has been putting out a ranking of college football teams for a while (I believe since at least 1998); and his rankings were used in the old BCS system. He currently has a preseason ranking of all D1 teams ( Here are where he has the Pac-12 teams:

  • Utah (#10)
  • Oregon (#14)
  • USC (#18)
  • UW (#21)
  • UCLA (#33)
  • Arizona State (#35)
  • Oregon State (#39)
  • Stanford (#44)
  • California (#51)
  • WSU (#54)
  • Arizona (#69)
  • Colorado (#78)

Obviously a bit surprising to see UW in a top-25 list. By the way, he has Kent State at #97, Portland State at #171, and Michigan State at #42. So, by his listing, UW is ahead of all but one of the teams that they will play this year.


ESPN also has their Football Power Index (FPI) where their rank all of the FBS teams, predict the W-L records for each team, and include their projections for each team’s chances at winning out, making the playoffs, and more. Here is some of that information for all of the Pac-12 teams.

ESPN FPI Preseason Data for Pac-12 Teams

School FPI Rank Win (proj) Loss (proj) 6Wins% Win Conf %
School FPI Rank Win (proj) Loss (proj) 6Wins% Win Conf %
Utah 13 9.5 3.1 99.40% 37.80%
Oregon 23 8.6 3.9 97.20% 29.10%
USC 35 8.1 4.2 95.30% 12.70%
UCLA 39 8.4 3.9 97.30% 8.60%
Washington 48 7.5 4.6 90.50% 4.70%
Arizona State 50 6.9 5.2 80.80% 3.80%
Oregon State 57 6 6 62.20% 1.60%
Stanford 62 5 7 36.30% 0.60%
California 67 5.6 6.5 51.40% 0.80%
WSU 79 4.9 7.1 34.10% 0.20%
Colorado 84 3.5 8.5 9.80% 0.10%
Arizona 91 3.5 8.5 8.90% 0.10%
Selected preseason data from ESPN’s FPI for the Pac12 teams.

(I’m not sure why the projected wins plus losses don’t add up to 12 in all cases; I think they are adding in the chance of playing in the Pac12 Championship game.)

The ‘6Wins%’ is an indication of how likely each team is going to win 6 games and thus make a bowl game. UW is one of the 5 teams that seem very likely to win at least 6 games.

ESPN Game Projections

In addition to projections of win-loss records for all of the teams, ESPN also has projections for each game. For example, they have UW with a 39.3% chance of beating Michigan State and a 56.7% chance of beating California. Here is a summary for all of the Pac-12 teams. (Favored means a greater than 50% chance of winning.)

Pac-12 Schools Favored by ESPN FPI

School Favored Projected Wins
School Favored Projected Wins
Arizona 3 3.5
Arizona State 8 6.8
California 4 5.6
Colorado 1 3.5
Oregon 11 8.6
Oregon State 4 6
Stanford 3 5
UCLA 10 8.3
USC 9 8.1
Utah 10 9.4
Washington 8 7.5
WSU 3 5
Comparison between games favored and projected wins by ESPN FPI prior to the 2022 season.

It isn’t unusual to have a 1 or 2 win difference between projected wins and games favored. That just means that the team is expected to be in some close games that could go the other direction. In the case of Stanford, they are only favored in 3 games, but they have a better than 47% chance in 3 of the games where they are underdogs. On the other hand, UCLA is favored in 10 games, but their chances in a couple of those games are by less than 60% (Arizona State and USC).

When looking at the individual games, here are some game predictions that seem a little surprising:

· Arizona is favored (50.9%) against WSU (game is at Arizona).

· Colorado is only favored in one game: Cal (52.3%), although it is a home game for Colorado.

· Oregon is favored over Utah (52.4%). It is a home game for Oregon, but they are obviously not factoring in what happened the last 2 times they played.

· Oregon State is an underdog to both Boise State (49.8%) and Fresno State (48.4%). And while still an underdog, they have a 42% chance of beating USC.

· Stanford is favored over just Colgate (98.3%), Oregon State (56.5%), and WSU (67.2%).

· UCLA is favored over USC (54.3%).

· Utah is an underdog to Florida (47.9%), and to Oregon (as noted above).

ESPN FPI Projections for UW Games

Here are the game-by-game projections for UW’s games:

ESPN FPI Win Projections For UW Games

Week Day Visitor Home UW Win Projection
Week Day Visitor Home UW Win Projection
1 3-Sep Kent State Washington 91.60%
2 10-Sep Portland State Washington 98.20%
3 17-Sep Michigan State Washington 39.30%
4 24-Sep Stanford Washington 66.40%
5 30-Sep Washington UCLA 33.50%
6 8-Oct Washington Arizona State 42.20%
7 15-Oct Arizona Washington 84.10%
8 22-Oct Washington California 56.70%
10 4-Nov Oregon State Washington 66.20%
11 12-Nov Washington Oregon 26.30%
12 19-Nov Colorado Washington 79.90%
13 26-Nov Washington Washington State 61.90%
UW win projections from ESPN’s FPI prior to the start of the 2022 season

The projected loss to Arizona State isn’t too surprising given that it is a road game. The surprising one to me is WSU. I would have expected WSU to be favored or at least be closer since it is also a road game for UW, but then they aren’t expecting a lot from WSU this year (just 5 wins).

Week 1 Games

Here are the projected winning percentages for each of the Pac-12 teams in their first games.

ESPN FPI Pac-12 Win Projections for Week 1

School Opponent Win %
School Opponent Win %
Arizona @ San Diego State 32.90%
Arizona State NAU 97.70%
California UC Davis 92.10%
Colorado TCU 31.50%
Oregon vs Georgia* 8.50%
Oregon State Boise State 49.80%
Stanford Colgate 98.30%
UCLA Bowling Green 96.90%
USC Rice 96.10%
Utah @ Florida 47.90%
Washington Kent State 91.60%
WSU Idaho 95.40%

* indicates a neutral site game played in Atlanta

Despite being considered a top-25 team, they don’t give Oregon much chance at all of beating Georgia. That is about the same winning percentage as Kent State against UW.

Note that these numbers can change weekly based on the games that have been played. It is possible that they will be slightly different by the start of the first game for a Pac-12 team (Arizona State on Sept. 1). However, that seems unlikely since none of those teams play in Week 0 games this weekend. I will hopefully be updating this information each week and checking to see how accurate these projections are.


The top-3 teams in the conference are consistently Utah, USC, and Oregon, although the order is not consistent. UCLA is a consensus #4 team in the conference. Arizona and Colorado seem to be the consensus in the bottom third of the conference. There isn’t a lot of consensus about the rest of the teams, although UW and Oregon State are generally toward the top of the rest. With so much change in the conference this year with 4 new head coaches and a lot of transfers, should we believe any of these projections even where there is consensus?

Despite last year’s performance by UW, the good news is that there are plenty of people expecting that UW will rebound this year. It may take at least 3-4 weeks before we have a good idea as to whether we can believe those expectations. Because UW is expected to easily win their first 2 games, I wouldn’t expect a big improvement after those games. Obviously a win over Michigan State would change the projections positively; and it’s possible that a close loss may also improve the projections as well. Even a win over Stanford is not likely to change things much (unless Stanford happens to beat USC).


Where will UW end up in the Pac-12 standings?

This poll is closed

  • 13%
    (55 votes)
  • 13%
    (54 votes)
  • 26%
    (108 votes)
  • 27%
    (111 votes)
  • 13%
    (55 votes)
  • 1%
    (6 votes)
  • 3%
    Bottom half of the conference?
    (15 votes)
404 votes total Vote Now