30-Day Countdown: Day 11 - Husky Prop Bets

For someone who has never actually placed a legitimate bet on a sports event I’m still probably in the 99th percentile in following sports gambling. Therefore coming up with imaginary prop bets is right down my alley.

If you really want to play along then write in the comments how you would divide up your money if you were given a free $100 credit at the UWDP sportsbook and are obligated to put at least $10 on each wager.

For those unfamiliar with general sports betting terms, the minus or plus next to the number speaks to how much money you would win. For example if the choice you go with is (+200) then it means you would win $200 by betting $100 (get your $100 back plus another $200). Meanwhile a bet of (-150) would signify that you would have to bet $150 in order to win $100 (get your $150 back plus another $100 for $250 total).

And if you want to bet real money instead of funny money you can check out DraftKings who is the official sportsbook partner of UW Dawg Pound.

Normally I set an over/under on how many true freshmen will redshirt but this year the most likely scenario is that all of them redshirt. Still, there’s a chance that one of them emerges by the end of the year and plays in at least 5 total games. You can look above to see what I think the chances are of that happening.

TE Ryan Otton is the most highly rated recruit and comes in at probably the thinnest position but has missed all of fall camp so far with an injury and so is less likely to break through. Safety Tristan Dunn could potentially be an asset on special teams and so could corner Javivion Green who showed some flashes in the practices open to the media this August. The question then becomes how juicy does the house have to put the odds of one of them contributing to entice equal action. We’ll see if I hit it right.

Last year the field ended up cashing in at +300 when Ja’Lynn Polk surprisingly returned from his collarbone injury and took the ball 55 yards to the house against Colorado late in the season. Am I making a mistake by keeping him as part of the field this year?

Technically Rome Odunze tied Polk for longest play from scrimmage as he managed a 55-yarder in the Apple Cup but didn’t get into the end zone on the play. It certainly would be no surprise to see Odunze or McMillan take a deep shot all the way from the other side of the field this season. Giles Jackson’s odds would be higher if I were including the possibility of a kick return touchdown but still has the speed to go 80 yards with a bubble screen.

The running back situation still isn’t quite clear but it appears Nixon and Taulapapa are the favorites at this point. Nixon was a minimally used receiver at Nebraska but is the bigger home run threat as Taulapapa is a bit more of a bruiser with a career long of 31 yards over 250+ career carries. Any other running back (Sam Adams, Cameron Davis, Aaron Dumas, etc.) ends up as part of the field, as do tight ends Devin Culp and Jack Westover.

Last season Fresno State in Kalen Deboer’s offense had 342 completions. 175 of them went to the starting receiver trio of Jalen Cropper, Josh Kelly, and Kyric Whitefall. That’s 51%. The running back duo of Rivers and Mims had 59, the tight ends combined for 41, and the remaining receivers combined for the rest.

Fast forward to this year and it appears Washington has a fairly entrenched starting receiver troika. Polk was hurt for most of the year but combined they had just 85 of Washington’s 243 completions a season ago (35%). The number was closer to 50/50 if you replace Polk with either the now transferred Terrell Bynum or Taj Davis who filled in all year for various injuries. This should be close to a coin flip but a persuasive argument could be made one way or the other.

Here I’m asking which unit will see the biggest net gain or loss from last year’s yards per game totals. The offense is expected to be better under Kalen DeBoer and in particular it should be a boon for the passing game. But UW’s rushing offense was one of the worst in the country last year and with more wins should be more chances to run the ball late in games and not pick up garbage passing yards. On defense last year’s passing defense was superb and lost its 2 best players which means it will likely get worse while the rush defense should improve.

For context here was Washington’s standing in each of those 4 measures last year:

Passing offense: 225 ypg, Rushing offense: 98.4 ypg

Passing defense: 193.3 ypg, Rushing defense: 143.3 ypg

And here is how Fresno State under DeBoer finished last season:

Passing offense: 330.1 ypg, Rushing offense: 133.5 ypg

Passing defense: 215.3 ypg, Rushing defense: 127.3 ypg

Last year I made this figure 20+ points and it turned out the pessimists cashed in as the only game that happened was against Arkansas State. Obviously what looked like a near certainty against Montana was anything but...

The bar has been lowered a bit but this is what looks like a fairly manageable schedule. The Dawgs will be favored by 20+ points against both Kent State and Portland State to start off the season. Home games against Stanford, Arizona, and Colorado all have the potential for a multi-touchdown victory if those teams don’t end up improving from a year ago. It may be blasphemy given the location but a game at Arizona State looks about as appealing as it’s possible to be in the desert given the turmoil surrounding that program.

Of course the most important factor is how good you think this Washington team truly ends up becoming. I’ll be honest saying I don’t have a great feel for it hence the fairly even spread across the board. A chance exists to cash in if the Huskies end up on the extremes.

***
If you want to play along at the UWDP casino then take $100 fictional dollars and spread them out with at least $10 on each of the 5 props. Here’s my choices:

Yes on All Freshmen to Redshirt -900: $10 to win $1.11

Giles Jackson to Score Longest TD +600: $20 to win $120

Everyone Else more receptions -110: $20 to win $18.18

Passing Offense +150: $30 to win $45

2 Games by 14+ Points +250: $20 to win $50

Combined Total: $100 to win $234.29

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.