How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Saturday, 3/5/22
Tip-Off Time: 4:30 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: Huskies Gameday App & Sports Radio KJR
Location: Seattle, Washington
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies -10
Oregon State Beavers 2021-22 Statistics:
Record: 3-26 (1-18)
Points For per Game: 68.2 ppg (235th)
Points Against per Game: 77.9 ppg (336th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 106.4 (126th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 111.6 (320th)
Strength of Schedule: 35th
Oregon State Key Players:
G- Dashawn Davis, Jr. 6’2, 185: 10.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 45.9% FG, 16.3% 3pt, 63.6% FT
Davis has come in as a JUCO transfer and done a solid job taking over the point guard role for the Beavers. He leads the Pac-12 play in assist rate and has done better than the 2:1 ratio for assists to turnovers. The problem? He can’t shoot as he’s just 7/41 this season on 3’s. Davis missed Oregon State’s last game on Thursday due to injury so it’s unclear if he’ll be available today.
1st game against UW: 37 minutes, 17 points, 8 assists, 3 turnovers, 6/11 FG
G- Jarod Lucas, Jr. 6’4, 195: 13.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 40.7% FG, 37.6% 3pt, 86.3% FT
Lucas has built off his breakout season last year but he just isn’t quite the kind of player that can carry a team the way Terrell Brown Jr. does. Close to 2/3rds of Lucas’ shots are from behind the 3-point arc and he’s at his best as a catch and shoot guy. Washington can’t give Lucas any space when he catches the ball or he can burn them although he struggled in their first matchup
1st game against UW: 32 minutes, 9 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1/5 3pt
G- Glenn Taylor, Fr. 6’6. 200: 6.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 47.3% FG, 26.1% 3pt, 77.5% FT
The Beavers have rotated through a lot of guys for who is the 5th option but it appears that the freshman Taylor has seized the role. The shooting is an adventure still but he’s incredibly physical and loves to attack the hoop and get to the free throw line. Taylor has scored in double figures in 4 of OSU’s last 5 games.
1st game against UW: 26 minutes, 10 points, 2 rebounds, 3/6 FG, 4/5 FT
F- Warith Alatishe, Sr. 6’8. 210: 9.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 52,6% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 39.6% FT
I thought Alatishe had a chance to become an all-conference contributor with his supreme athleticism but he hasn’t quite taken the leap. For a 6’8 player his rebounding and block rates are well above average although they are down from last season. After scoring 15+ points in 7 games for OSU in the first half of the year Alatishe has eclipsed 10 points just once in the last 12 games he’s played in. He missed OSU’s last game due to injury and his status for today is uncertain.
1st game against UW: 26 minutes, 9 points, 10 rebounds, 4 turnovers
C- Roman Silva, Sr. 7'1, 265: 6.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 58.6% FG, 71.7% FT
Silva would be a perfectly solid Pac-12 center except he just can’t stay on the court. For the 3rd straight season he’s averaging more than 5 fouls per 40 minutes which is down from the 6+ of previous years but still puts him in foul trouble a lot. The other big downside is that Silva’s defensive rebounding rate is about what you’d expect from a 6’6 wing although he is still a monster as an offensive rebounder. He looked borderline unstoppable when he got the ball down low against UW last time.
1st game against UW: 22 minutes, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 5/6 FG
What an absolute disaster of a season for Oregon State. The Beavers are in the midst of a 16-game losing streak and if the Huskies take care of business OSU might go from 3 wins in both last year’s Pac-12 tournament and NCAA tournament to 3 total wins this season. Barring an upset this looks to be the worst Pac-12 team per KenPom since 2019 Cal who started Pac-12 play 0-15 before a miraculous 3-game winning streak.
It looked like Oregon State might finally be on the verge of bursting out on Monday night when they were up double digits on WSU at halftime but let it slip away and ultimately fell in overtime. Then to add injury to insult, for the rematch on Thursday Dashawn Davis (team leader in assists) and Warith Alatishe (team leader in rebounds) missed the game due to injuries suffered during the week. In fact the Beavers only had 6 healthy scholarship players available and 4 starters played 38+ minutes. I would call that a massive advantage for UW with this game tipping off 42 hours later but Washington voluntarily went with essentially a 6-man rotation while beating Oregon so it’s probably a wash.
The big problem for the Beavs has been their defense although I don’t know if you can really call it that. Teams are shooting 55%/36%/72.6% 2/3/FT splits against the OSU defense. On average. Both the 2-pt and 3-pt percentage marks rank in the bottom 20% of all D1 teams. The Beavers are essentially a team of matadors as most opponents get whatever they want at the rim. That’s good news for a Washington team that doesn’t exactly shoot the ball well from deep.
We can also be sure we’ll see plenty of offensive rebounds in this game as the Huskies are one of the 5 worst defensive rebounding teams in the country but Oregon State also rank in the bottom 10. If Oregon State is in a position to win this game late it’s likely because they were able to end up with 8+ put backs and handily win the 2nd chance points battle.
It is definitely possible for Oregon State to outscore you though. Roman Silva and Glenn Taylor each shoot better than 58% on 2-pt attempts and are adept at getting to the free throw line. It’s not impossible to envision a game in which Roberts gets into early foul trouble and Washington doesn’t have the size down low to match up. Jarod Lucas has been in a bit of a rut but he’s still a career 38% 3-pt shooter and has a 6/10 3-pt shooting night on his resume from this season. If he gets hot it could present serious problems.
Despite all of that this game is more about Washington. The Huskies even without Daejon Davis only need to play an average game to come away with the victory. Terrell Brown Jr. will likely be playing his final home game in Seattle on senior night and I’d expect him to live up to the occasion especially against this defense.
Coach Hopkins said on Thursday night that they’re expecting 9 players to walk on senior night between their scholarship guys and walk-ons. Only Davis and Brown have no more eligibility remaining. We’ll have to wait until after the Pac-12 tournament to see what happens with the roster and whether several of those players choose to return next year and get another senior night. If Bey, Matthews, Roberts, and Sorn all come back then the Huskies have their roster for next year essentially figured out. If all of them were to leave then suddenly the Huskies would be replacing their entire starting 5 plus a backup center. A lot rides on those decisions.
In the short-term this game decides Washington’s Pac-12 tournament seeding. It’s win and you’re in for the #6 seed which will play either Cal or Utah depending on the rest of the day’s results. The only way for UW to fall to 7th is by losing today and also having Washington State beat the Ducks. The #7 seed would also play either Cal or Utah and given that the Huskies swept both teams this year it’s probably pretty close to 50/50 which one the Dawgs would rather play in the 1st round next week.
Washington Huskies- 82, Oregon State Beavers- 71