How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Thursday, 3/3/22
Tip-Off Time: 7:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: Huskies Gameday App & Sports Radio KJR
Location: Seattle, Washington
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +3.5
Oregon Ducks 2021-22 Statistics:
Record: 18-11 (11-7)
Points For per Game: 72.1 ppg (123rd)
Points Against per Game: 68.6 ppg (146th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.3 (51st)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (94th)
Strength of Schedule: 49th
Oregon Key Players:
G- Will Richardson, Sr. 6’5, 180: 14.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 45.8% FG, 39.0% 3pt, 77.2% FT
Richardson isn’t a true point guard but he fills the role well enough as the homegrown leader for the Ducks. There’s no question he’s an elite shooter and has made almost 40% of his 3-point attempts in his career. Unlike many guys that shoot that kind of a percentage he takes more shots from inside the arc so he has some more variety to his game.
1st Game Against UW: 21 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast, 8/11 FG
G- De’Vion Harmon, Jr. 6’2, 200: 10.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 41.0% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 77.1% FT
After starring for an Oklahoma team that made the tournament last year Harmon has taken a slightly reduced role for Oregon. Last year he shot almost 57% on 2’s and that’s down to 43% this year in a new offense that doesn’t give him as many easy looks at the basket. Still, he’s a reliable shooter and has been a perfectly serviceable shooting guard option that has scored double digits in 12 of their last 16 games.
1st Game Against UW: 9 pts, 3 reb, 5 ast
G- Jacob Young, Sr. 6’3. 190: 11.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 41.9% FG, 28.0% 3pt, 65.3% FT
After a breakout season for Rutgers last year Young has similarly backslid transferring to Oregon. He’s averaging 3 less points and 1 less assist than last year while shooting almost 10% worse from the 3-pt line. That’s not surprising since he was the lead guard for Rutgers and has often been the 3rd option on offense for the Ducks. He had 4 straight games in single digits before picking back up his scoring in Oregon’s last 3.
1st Game Against UW: 12 pts, 3 ast, 3 stl
F- Quincy Guerrier, Jr. 6’8. 220: 9.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 42.3% FG, 31.7% 3pt, 65.7% FT
I really wanted Guerrier from Syracuse but he has probably been the most underwhelming of the transfers. His efficiency stats aren’t that different from playing under Boeheim but he’s averaging 7 fewer minutes per game at Oregon which makes the drop in his per game stats very noticeable (13.7 and 8.4 to 8.1 and 5.2). The other big difference is that at Syracuse he only took about 25% of his shots from outside and at Oregon it’s 50%. For an only so-so shooter that’s not a good thing for the Ducks.
1st Game Against UW: 12 pts, 4 reb, 4/7 FG, 2/3 3pt
C- N’Faly Dante, Jr. 6'11, 230: 8.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 67.1% FG, 57.6% FT
Last season Dante tore his ACL in the first meeting against Washington. He understandably eased into the season but has looked like a dominant force again at times. He’s essentially what Roberts would look like if Nate dropped 30 pounds and was capable of catching a tough pass and dunking it. The rim protection is only so-so but the rebounding is elite as he had 15 going against Arizona 2 weeks ago.
1st Game Against UW: 6 pts, 1 reb, 3 TO
The first game against Oregon was an abomination and there’s not really another way to say it. The Huskies were outscored 48-13 in the first half in what has to be the most depressing opening to a UW basketball game I’ve ever seen. Washington won the 2nd half but in the end Oregon shot 19% better on 2’s, 30% better on 3’s, and 6% better from the free throw line while committing 10 fewer turnovers. Ass. Kicking.
That isn’t likely to happen again if for no other reason then you almost never see that except in games where a top-25 team is playing a bottom feeder mid-major. And Oregon isn’t that good and UW isn’t that bad.
That being said, the Ducks are a bit of an enigma. They had a 3-game stretch that included a narrow home win over Stanford, a 14-point loss to Cal, and a 24-point road loss at Arizona State. When you factor in the quality of opponent involved that has to be one of the worst 3-game stretches in the conference this year. They turned around immediately following that with 3 consecutive games decided by 5 or fewer points against the best 3 teams in the Pac-12. If we get the latter version of Oregon then this is a 20 point blowout. If it’s the former then the Dawgs have a great chance.
Part of what makes this a tough matchup for the Dawgs is the size that Oregon is able to put on Terrell Brown Jr. Oregon always has at least 4 guys on the court taller than Brown and is often able to stick a 6’5 or 6’6 defender on him which can cause problems. Brown had the worst game of his Husky career the first time around shooting 3/16 from the floor with 6 turnovers. He absolutely has to find away to have an efficient night scoring the ball for UW to have a shot.
That gets even harder with the re-injury to Daejon Davis’ shoulder. In the win over Washington State this weekend the Huskies were able to create fast break opportunities due to Daejon’s defense and also moved the ball better with a secondary ball handler who can create a shot for others. Against UCLA once Davis got hurt the UW offense once again turned into iso ball with 4 total assists at the time Coach Hopkins started to empty the bench.
There’s not really an individual aspect of Oregon’s team that scares you. They rank no better than 90th in essentially any major offensive metric but they also don’t rank much worse than 150th. If you’re slightly above average at everything it ends up meaning you’re quite a bit better than average in the aggregate. The Ducks are 4th in Pac-12 play in offensive efficiency and have been 2nd making 51.5% of their 2-pt shots. Nate Roberts will have his hands full tonight.
The defense has been a little more suspect but Oregon has actually surpassed Washington in forcing turnovers during Pac-12 play after UW slowed down minus Daejon Davis. The Duck full-court press has plagued the Huskies in the Hopkins era and I’d expect it to cause a few turnovers again tonight with Brown and Fuller as the only 2 primary guards.
A win over Oregon would destroy any last shred of hope the Ducks had of making it into the NCAA tournament as an at-large team. This is an Oregon team that often loses focus but given the rivalry and that fact they’ll be ready to give UW their best shot. Meanwhile a Husky victory would bump up the chances of getting the 6th seed in the conference standings to about 90%. There’s still a chance it happens with a loss as long as the Huskies take care of business against Oregon State but it would be a lot sweeter to all but clinch it tonight.
If Davis were fully available and the Huskies had played UCLA a little closer on Monday night I might be willing to go into homer mode and pick a UW win. But Oregon at their ceiling plays like a top-25 team even if they can’t do it consistently. I’m not expecting them to take their foot off the pedal tonight and Washington has shown they just don’t have the horses to compete with the upper crust of the conference this year.
Washington Huskies- 61, Oregon Ducks- 74