How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Sunday, 2/6/22
Tip-Off Time: 1:00 pm PT
Radio: Huskies Gameday App
Location: Palo Alto, California
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +5
Stanford Cardinal 2021-22 Statistics:
Record: 13-8 (6-5)
Points For per Game: 67.0 ppg (259th)
Points Against per Game: 68.3 ppg (142nd)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (120th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.9 (67th)
Strength of Schedule: 14th
Stanford Key Players:
G- Michael O’Connell, So. 6’2, 190: 7.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.8 apg, 37.1% FG, 25.5% 3pt, 57.5% FT
Last year O’Connell was a semi-revelation as a true freshman with 47/33/79% shooting splits while wresting control of the point guard position away from Daejon Davis. His scoring has really struggled this year though while also turning it over twice per game. Within Pac-12 play though he’s 4th in the conference in assist rate so he can still set the table for others even if he’s struggling to score himself. He had 4 points and 4 rebounds against UW in the first game.
G- Spencer Jones, Jr. 6’7, 225: 10.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 46.3% FG, 34.4% 3pt, 68.8% FT
It has been a slow shooting start for Jones as well as he is at a career low in 3-pt% right now but has shot 39% in conference play so he might be trending back to his career 40% average. This year Jones has been much more willing to take the ball to the basket and it has paid off since he’s shooting over 61% on his 2-point attempts. He had 3 points and 3 blocks against UW in the first game.
F- Brandon Angel, So. 6’8. 230: 7.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, 45.8% FG, 34.5% 3pt, 77.8% FT
After barely getting on the floor last year, Angel has taken a major leap and become a super solid role player. It’s possible he might’ve hit a sophomore slump though as he’s now shooting just 27.5% from deep in conference play after making 50% of his 3-point attempts in the non-con. He was the MVP for Stanford in the first game against UW with 13 points on 5/8 shooting with 2 assists.
F- Harrison Ingram, Fr. 6’8. 230: 11.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 39.0% FG, 30.4% 3pt, 73.0% FT
Ingram is the most hyped member of this Stanford team as a 5-star recruit who is leading the team in minutes, points, and rebounds. Ingram is a toolsy player who is good at just about everything but not exactly exceptional at any one skill. His rebounding numbers are great for a 6’8 freshman and his assist and 3-pt rates are great for a power forward. But each individually aren’t good enough to be the best for a player on most teams. He had 7 points and 7 rebounds with 4 turnovers against UW in the first game.
F- Jaiden Delaire, Sr. 6'9, 215: 10.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.0 apg, 41.7% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 68.6% FT
Delaire was expected to take the Oscar da Silva leap but he just hasn’t quite gotten there. He’s still just a 28% career 3-pt shooter so he isn’t quite the outside shooting threat you’d like out of a stretch big. He also doesn’t rim protect all that well and has never managed to cut down on the turnovers. The one thing he absolutely can do though is get to the free throw line as he draws 6 fouls per 40 minutes played and knocks down a good percentage once he gets there. He had 5 points and 4 rebounds with 4 turnovers against UW in the first game.
Things were looking up for Stanford the last time Washington played them. The Cardinal were on a 4-game winning streak, all over top-100 teams at KenPom (at least now all are in the top-100). Only one of those games was at home. Then Washington absolutely obliterated the Cardinal in the first half and then narrowly held on against a furious Stanford comeback attempt.
Including that game Stanford is 3-4 in its last 7 and none of the wins was by more than 7 points. The offense in particular has gone into a tailspin. In those 7 games is averaging just 59.7 points per game and has eclipsed 65 points only one time. Their season average was 70.2 points per game on the morning of January 15th and has already dropped down to 67.0.
Washington helped expose the big reason behind the collapse which is that the Cardinal can’t take care of the ball. They are dead last in Pac-12 play in turnover percentage, coughing it up on 22.9% of possessions. For contrast, the Huskies are 2nd at 16.4%. Even when they do get up a shot they aren’t exactly great. The team as a whole in Pac-12 play is shooting 32.5% on 3-pt attempts and 45.9% on 2’s which is 8th and 9th in the conference respectively. There are some role players shooting the ball well as Stanford has 3 players above 43% on 3-pointers but all of them are shooting fewer than 2 attempts per game so they aren’t reliable. None of Stanford’s top-6 minutes getters make better than 34% of their deep tries.
While they struggle in the turnover department, Stanford is still a very tall team that can be dominant on the glass. They rank in the top-25 nationally in rebounding on both offense and defense by virtue of being the 4th tallest team in the country. Those aforementioned top-6 minutes getters include 5 players between 6’7 and 6’9. Outside of the point guard position they play guys at least as big as Emmitt Matthews Jr. who often ends up being the center in smaller lineups for UW. Expect Stanford’s rebounding advantage to largely cancel out the turnover differential at least in pure number of possessions.
The real question in this game comes on UW’s side. Can the team as whole, and Jamal Bey and Daejon Davis in particular, shoot like they did on Thursday night at Cal? At one point the Huskies were 10/16 from deep before a slightly lackluster 2/7 finish. In the 5 games before Thursday Davis had been 3/19 on 3-pointers before making 5/7. He had a similar outburst to this against Winthrop and then went back to ~30% shooting but if he could reliably be in the 35-40% range it would really open up the Husky offense. Jamal Bey’s only other game this year scoring 16+ points was against Stanford so hopefully he can continue to be confident.
If the Huskies win this game they can start having legitimate thoughts about a top-6 finish in the conference even with a death row stretch coming up starting next weekend. The win would extend the Huskies to a season high 4 straight victories. I just don’t quite trust that the Washington offense truly turned a corner on Thursday night and it’s more likely that they regress back down to the mean. I think Stanford gets to return the favor with a narrow home win of their own.
Washington Huskies- 61, Stanford Cardinal- 63