How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Monday, 2/28/22
Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT
Radio: Huskies Gameday App & KJR 950 AM
Location: Seattle, Washington
#17 UCLA Bruins 2021-22 Statistics:
Record: 21-6 (13-5)
Points For per Game: 76.1 ppg (42nd)
Points Against per Game: 64.5 ppg (32nd)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 115.8 (15th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 90.8 (10th)
Strength of Schedule: 40th
#17 UCLA Bruins Key Players:
G- Tyger Campbell, Jr. 5’11, 180: 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, 42.7% FG, 40.4% 3pt, 81.7% FT
1st game against UW: 6 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast
G- Jules Bernard, Jr. 6’7, 210: 11.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.7 apg, 39.1% FG, 29.1% 3pt, 78.9% FT
1st game against UW: 6 pts on 3/14 FG, 3 reb, 1 ast
G- Jaylen Clark, Jr. 6’5. 210: 8.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 51.2% FG, 26.1% 3pt, 59.0% FT
1st game against UW: 25 pts on 12/16 FG, 5 reb, 1 ast
F- Jaime Jaquez, Jr. 6'7, 225: 12.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, 46.2% FG, 27.8% 3pt, 71.8% FT
1st game against UW: 4 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast
C- Myles Johnson, Sr. 6’10, 255: 4.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 61.4% FG, 45.9% FT
1st game against UW: 7 pts, 13 reb, 3 blk
Washington kicked off the final 4-game homestand of the regular season in impressive fashion with a 78-70 win over Washington State on Saturday afternoon. Things get kicked up a notch tonight with a trip from the 21-6 UCLA Bruins. The Huskies struggled mightily against UCLA the first time in Los Angeles as they were bludgeoned 76-50.
Things are much different from an injury standpoint this time around on both sides. Emmitt Matthews Jr. suffered a concussion and missed the 2nd half in that first game and Daejon Davis was still unavailable with a shoulder injury. Both played in the Dawgs’ win over the Cougars on Saturday and clearly made a difference for the Husky defense. Both UCLA star Johnny Juzang and Cody Riley missed that first game on the Bruins’ side. Juzang returned against Oregon but suffered another injury, missed Saturday’s game against Oregon State, and seems unlikely to play tonight. Riley is back although most UCLA fans would prefer Myles Johnson take over as the starting center anyways.
UCLA’s dominant win over the Huskies was the result of 2 bench players for the Bruins having career nights. Jaylen Clark and David Singleton combined for 47 points on 7/10 3-point shooting to bury Washington. That was almost enough by itself to overcome UW’s 50 points. Clark has become a major contributor in Juzang’s absence but that was still 7 more than his 2nd highest career output. Singleton is shooting 49% from 3 in Pac-12 play so making 6/8 from deep is better than expected for him but he has rarely taken that many shots.
The Bruins have suffered a few narrow losses on the road in conference losing in 3OT at Arizona State, by 3 at USC, and by 5 at Oregon on Thursday. However UCLA certainly got well on Saturday beating woeful Oregon State by 39 points. The Huskies have to hope that UCLA will be a little tired playing their 3rd game in 5 days, all on the road.
Even without Johnny Juzang there’s not a real weakness to this UCLA team. They occasionally will go ice cold from the 3-point line like they did at Oregon. But UCLA is one of only 3 teams in the country to rank in the top-15 in both offensive and deficiency efficiency. They’re good at rebounding, they don’t turn the ball over, and they have multiple players capable of creating their own shots.
Terrell Brown Jr. had one of his worst games of the season against UCLA shooting 4/17 with 4 turnovers and only making it to the free throw line one time. Outside of Tyger Campbell, every Bruin defender is at least 6’4 so they can throw wave after wave of size at Brown. Hopefully though UW will be better adept with Daejon Davis on the floor to find ways to get Campbell matched up against Brown which is a matchup very much in Brown’s favor on that end. It also will help if Cody Riley is playing more center since he is not nearly the same caliber shot blocker/defensive rebounder as Myles Johnson.
The combination of getting back Matthews and Davis and playing at home is definitely a major boost for the Huskies’ chances. Is it good enough to overcome 26 points? I’m skeptical about that. I think the Dawgs put up a fight but that ultimately UCLA is just too good at making shots for Washington to overcome the deficit. This game is extremely important for UW’s chances in the Pac-12 tournament as a win essentially clinches (99.996% chance) that the Huskies will avoid the 8/9 game and also leaves open the possibility of the #4 seed and a 1st round bye. A loss makes 6th place in the standings as the ceiling but leaves open the chance to fall as far as 9th.
(You can find my full breakdown of all the scenarios for how the final week plays out here.)
Washington Huskies- 67, #13 UCLA Bruins- 77