How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Thursday, 12/1/22
Tip-Off Time: 7:00 pm PT
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Oregon State Beavers 2022-23 Statistics:
Record: 3-4 (1-0 against D2)
Points For per Game: 64.8 (284th)
Points Against per Game: 68.3 (136th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (229th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (251st)
Strength of Schedule: 252nd
Oregon State’s Key Players:
G- Jordan Pope, Fr. 6’2, 165: 15.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 48.1% FG, 36.4% 3pt, 86.2% FT
Pope has been sensational for a 3-star true freshman who had the keys handed over to him and has looked much better than his recruiting rankings. He’s averaging just 2 turnovers per game and has a true shooting percentage over 60% as he’s capable of scoring at all 3 levels. If the Beavers are at all competitive in the Pac-12 this season it will be because Pope unexpectedly has arrived as a clear future all-conference performer.
G- Dexter Akanno, Jr. 6’5, 210: 10.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, 32.4% FG, 18.9% 3pt, 70.4% FT
His backcourt mate has been less impressive on offense this season as Akanno has struggled to get the ball in the basket although he is drawing fouls at a career high rate and has cut down on his turnovers. Given his efficiency though it’s not a good sign for OSU that he’s taking over a quarter of the shots while on the court.
G-Glenn Taylor, So. 6’6, 200: 12.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 47.5% FG, 25.0% 3pt, 71.4% FT
Taylor had a solid freshman season last year and has been asked to do more this season but sometimes struggled with that task. His assists are up quite a bit but his turnovers have risen accordingly and he has 5+ giveaways in 3 of their last 4 games. Last year Taylor made almost 60% of his 2’s but that has dropped to 49% this season which has greatly hurt his efficiency.
F- Dzmitry Ryuny, Sr. 6’9, 220: 6.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.0 apg, 56.7% FG, 40.0% 3pt, 60.0% FT
The transfer from San Francisco has been a nice pickup as a stretch 4 who’s a career 37% 3-point shooter. He is currently on pace to set career highs in block rate and offensive rebounding rate as the Beavers have let him play down low a little more than he did under Todd Golden.
F- Rodrigue Andela, So. 6’8, 250: 6.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.0 bpg, 65.6% FG, 66.7% FT
Andela is undersized from a height standpoint to play center but has the athleticism to be a true rim protector. His rate stats are fantastic but he is averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game because his physicality is resulting in 7+ fouls per 40 minutes. Meah and Kepnang getting him in foul trouble and thereby opening up the paint will be a key to the game.
After a disastrous season last year in which the Beavers went 3-28 it looked like there were signs of a quick turnaround this season. Oregon State won a home against a half-decent Tulsa squad to start off the year. They then beat an admittedly terrible Florida A&M team by a lot and also beat D2 Bushell by 17. Not the strongest competition but wins are wins when coming off a 3-28 season.
Then came a 4-game losing streak including a pair of double-digit losses to Portland State, one at home and one in the PK85. Despite an 0-3 finish in that tournament there was a sign of encouragement as they only lost to Duke by 3 points. This isn’t a good Beavers team but if you join them in a rock fight, they can still keep it close if not beat you.
Wayne Tinkle turned over nearly the entire roster but that might not have been a bad thing given how bad this team was last year. Oregon State is 339th in D1 experience with a very very young team and consequently 309th in minutes continuity returning only 21% of their minutes. Glenn Taylor and Dexter Akanno as the starting wings are essentially the only players that played meaningful minutes from last season. Center Rodrigue Andela was a key cog a few years ago but missed almost all of last season due to injury.
This is also not a good shooting team despite the success of true freshman point guard Jordan Pope. He is the only Beaver to have made at least 10 3’s through 7 games and one of only 2 shooting above 33.3% on deep shots. Because of that Oregon State has mostly tried to get the ball down low and get to the foul line. They’re 18th in average height and 15th in free throw attempts per field goal.
Oregon State’s answer to the Meah/Kepnang center combo is Chol Marial and Andela who each are premier rim protectors. The duo is averaging 2.4 blocks per game in just a combined 28 minutes per game. Their combined playing time is as limited as it is because they’re averaging more than 5 combined personal fouls per game as well. Washington was dominated inside by Cal Baptist’s 7-foot rim protector and there’s the potential for Marial and Andela to shut down the paint as well.
As is typical for a Wayne Tinkle defense though, Oregon State doesn’t do much to create turnovers. The Beavers play at a snail’s pace and will mix up between man-to-man and zone but rarely gamble in the passing lanes. That will be important for a Husky team that will be without Noah Williams and may have a limited PJ Fuller after he left Monday night’s game late with an injury after a reckless play by Seattle’s Cameron Tyson diving into the back of his legs.
This may be an improved Oregon State team but this is still a squad that has lost by 12+ points to Portland State twice in the last week. Those are the Vikings’ only 2 wins against D1 competition this season and they have losses to Seattle and Portland. Washington should win this game. But the first road game of the year is tricky and if PJ Fuller were to be unavailable or hobbled, it’s a tough spot to hand the keys over to the true freshman guards.
I think the Meah/Kepnang combo will at least be able to cancel out Marial/Andela and while Jordan Pope may be the best of several true freshman guards on the court, the Huskies have a clear advantage at the wing spots. Washington will go through some dry spells but I can’t see the Beavers being able to reliably put up points against the Husky zone defense.
Max’s Record this Year: 5-2 Straight Up, 5-2 Against The Spread
Washington Huskies- 67, Oregon State Beavers- 59