Initial CFP Ranking Comparison

With the first CFP ranking out, I thought that this would be a good time to compare it with the preseason polls (AP and Coaches) to see how they are doing. I’ll also compare some other preseason rankings with the current rankings to see which teams are doing better and which are doing worse. This will look at all FBS teams, although the Pac-12 teams will be highlighted.

Obviously the season isn’t over, and there will be changes. But this will give us an idea about how well those preseason rankings are doing.

CFP Poll

First, here is a comparison the current CFP ranking with the two major preseason polls.

*-Not in top-25, but getting votes.

In the CFP ranking there are 5 teams that were not even getting votes in the preseason AP poll and 4 teams that were not getting votes in the Coaches poll. There are another 8 teams (each) that were not in the top-25 in either poll. So, about half of the teams in the current CFP were not in the top-25 in either preseason poll, including the top team (Tennessee). And, a top-10 CFP team (TCU) wasn’t even getting votes in either preseason poll.

For the Pac-12, the 3 teams in the top-25 in the preseason polls are all in the current CFP ranking (Oregon, USC, and Utah). The 2 teams that got at least one vote in either preseason poll (UCLA and Oregon State) are the other two Pac-12 teams in the CFP ranking.

Who are the teams that were ranked in the top-25 in the preseason, and what are their current records?

*-Not in top-25, but getting votes.

Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Arkansas, and Baylor are getting votes in both the AP and Coaches polls; they have a chance to move up into the CFP rankings by the end. Oklahoma probably does as well given their schedule-even though they are not currently getting votes in either poll.

Based on the history of the CFP, Power-5 teams with 3 losses can be ranked in the final CFP ranking, and a few teams with 4 losses have been ranked in the past. UW is one Pac-12 team that could eventually be in the final CFP ranking this year-assuming they lose no more than 1 more game; WSU has an outside chance.

Also based on history, non-Power-5 teams which have more than 2 losses have not been ranked in the final CFP rankings. That means there are probably only about 20 teams that are not currently in the CFP ranking that could potentially be ranked in the final CFP ranking. That means that there could still be movement in and out of the CFP rankings by the end.

Other Preseason Rankings

There are a number of preseason publications like Athlon’s, Phil Steele, etc. that put out preseason top-25 rankings. A composite of about 15 of those preseason top-25 rankings can be found here: https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2022.html

While the consensus of those publications (and obviously several of the publications) did have Tennessee in the top-25 (unlike either the AP or Coaches poll) the consensus of those publications also had most of the same misses as the major polls (Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Miami, etc.). The consensus preseason rankings also had Iowa as a top-25 team; Iowa is currently 4-4 and not getting votes anywhere-so another big miss.

There are 3 teams that are currently in the CFP that did not get any votes in those preseason publications: Syracuse, Illinois, and Tulane.

There are 8 teams in the current CFP ranking that were not in the consensus preseason top-25, but were at least getting some votes:

There are 4 others that did not get any votes in those preseason publications but are currently getting votes in either the AP or Coaches polls:

• Liberty
• Troy
• Washington
• East Carolina

For the Pac-12, UCLA, UW, and Oregon State are obviously three of the teams that have exceeded the preseason publications’ expectations. The three Pac-12 teams that were in the consensus preseason rankings are all still in the CFP ranking (Oregon, USC, and Utah).

Composite Rankings

In comparing the preseason Composite Ranking with the current Composite Ranking (using https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm), these are the teams that have dropped the most:

The team at the top of that list is obviously unfortunate for UW; that win doesn’t look as good now. San Diego State is another team on that list that played a Pac-12 team (Arizona), so that win doesn’t look as good for them, either.

And these are the teams that have improved the most.

Pac-12 Rankings

Two Pac-12 teams were close to being on that list of most-improved team. Since the preseason, USC is the 12^th most improved team (+38) and UW is the 16^th most improved team (+31).

Colorado (-30) and Arizona State (-28) were close to being on the list of teams that dropped the most. That shouldn’t be surprising since both of those teams have fired their head coach since the season started.

Here is the ‘cool chart’ showing the changes since the preseason.

The top 4 teams are unchanged since week 5, although the order between them has changed. Likewise, the next 3 teams are the same since week 5, although the order has also changed. Colorado has been at the bottom since week 1.

And here is the chart which shows the range of rankings for each team.

Stanford clearly has the greatest range of all of the Pac12 teams (from 41 to 107) while the top 4 teams have the lowest ranges. Oregon State is ranked where they are in this Composite Ranking because there several rankings that have them as a top-25 team, including 3 that have them in the top 15.

ESPN FPI Projections

Will there be changes after this weekend’s games? Let’s see what ESPN’s FPI is projecting. Here are the ESPN FPI projections for this week’s Pac-12 games.

Based on this, Oregon State and UW could flip next week. There is a chance (almost 50%) that WSU and Stanford could flip as well-or at least get closer together. And since ESPN’s FPI has been correct for 85% of the Pac-12 games this season, there is reason to trust them again this week.

Final Observations

UW fans should know all too well now that preseason rankings are not a great predictor of success. Some teams are better (like UW); some teams are worse (like Michigan State). Last year a team that started outside of the top-25 even made the playoffs (Michigan); that might happen again this year-maybe even with two teams (Tennessee and TCU). But by this point in the season we normally have a good idea of which teams have a chance to be in the CFP and which do not.

Historically, the CFP committee has generally done a good job of identifying, with their first rankings, those teams that are likely to have the best chance of ending up as being the best teams. The preseason rankings, on the other hand, are not a great way to predict the best teams.