Gabey Lucas (6-4 Straight Up, 6-4 Against the Spread)
Ya know what, for the first time more-or-less seriously:
FORTY NINE AND OH BABY
Washington- 49, Colorado- 0
Andrew Berg (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Two weeks ago, Colorado hosted Oregon. The Ducks were favored by 31.5. I took the Buffaloes and they lost by 39. Last week, Colorado traveled to USC. The Trojans were favored by 34.5. I took the Buffaloes and they lost by 38 on a final minute TD run by the USC reserves. It is a well-established axiom that bad teams find a way to lose. Colorado is demonstrating that bad teams find a way to fail to cover the spread, too.
Colorado’s defense has been among the worst in the country all year. It has to be extremely bad to repeatedly fail to cover spreads over 30 points. The 20-13 OT win over Cal is now five weeks old and the team’s motivation seems to have slackened after assuring that they wouldn’t go winless. Since that game, they have given up at least 42 points in four straight games, including a mix of teams who like to run and teams who like to pass. Long story short, Washington does not have to tailor a complex game plan to Colorado’s strengths and weaknesses; Ryan Grubb can pick what the team does best and hammer away in that direction. It should mean another big game for Michael Penix. Rome Odunze is closing in on 1,000 receiving yards for the year and should be able to eclipse that mark.
At times, Colorado has looked like a competent rush offense. Deion Smith and Alex Fontenot are both average about five yards per carry on the year. Over the course of the year, the offense has become more balanced and even less effective. J.T. Shrout is completing only 45.4% of his passes with more INTs than TDs. He’s not a running threat, either. As much as UW’s secondary as struggled throughout the season, Colorado poses one of the least difficult challenges they will face all year.
Is it possible for the Huskies to be caught off guard and experience an emotional letdown after last week’s colossal win over Oregon? Of course. Is it likely? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Washington- 49, Colorado- 17
Max Vrooman (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Two weeks ago I spent the weekend during UW’s bye week staying with my wife’s aunt and uncle, both of whom are Colorado graduates. Her uncle asked if I would be willing to make a bet on the outcome of this UW-Colorado game coming up in a few weeks. I said sure. He said here’s the deal, you set the spread at literally any total you want and then I’ll take Washington and you’re stuck taking my Buffs. I threw out the idea of a 50-point spread. No hesitation, he still wanted Washington.
Ultimately we settled on a beer for the winner to be settled at Thanksgiving using the actual spread where he is on Washington and I’m on Colorado. I’m not going to rip off family. But the point of the story is to show how impossibly downtrodden the Colorado fanbase is at the moment with regards to this team.
Pick just about any stat you want and Colorado ranks worst in the power 5 if not among any FBS teams in the country. Like how about these stats for example?
COLORADO @ WASHINGTON pic.twitter.com/DRTlVbNn78— parker, u n v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) November 15, 2022
That’s a lot of red. I would be supremely worried about this game against almost any other opponent in the conference. Washington is coming off not just their most emotional win of the season but maybe the most emotional win since the Apple Cup or Pac-12 title game in 2018. These are college kids and if there was ever a spot for an emotional letdown, it’s this one.
As bad as Colorado’s offense has been this year, the Huskies are presumably going to be once again down their 1st, 3rd, and 4th outside corners. Jaivion Green is doing his best out there as a true freshman but I’m expecting at least one big shot play against him for a score.
Washington could probably put up 50+ on the Buffs but I’m expecting DeBoer to call off the hounds and rest up in the 4th quarter to keep guys fresh for the Apple Cup and we may see something like a 7-3 Colorado win of the 4th and a decisive Husky advantage before that. Still, it’s a Buffs cover and a beer for me come next Thursday.
Washington- 44, Colorado- 17
THE FINAL TALLY
Straight Up: Washington- 3, Colorado- 0
Against the Spread (UW -30.5): Washington- 2, Colorado- 1
Average Score: Washington- 47.3, Colorado- 11.3