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Pac-12 Rankings and Projections After Week 11

How much change is there in the rankings after the upsets last weekend?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 05 Cal at USC Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The rankings within the Pac-12 did get shaken up a bit after last week’s games, but most teams were steady.

Rankings

The Pac-12 now has 6 teams in the CFP rankings as well as in the top-25 of the AP poll: USC, Utah, Oregon, UCLA, UW, and Oregon State. There are only 5 teams in the Coaches poll; Oregon State is not ranked but is getting votes (#27).

A summary of those and many other different rankings for all FBS teams can be found here: https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Here is the updated ‘Cool Chart’ which shows the Pac-12 teams in those Composite Rankings.

I’ve added the team names on the right to make it easier to know who is who.

Several teams made big jumps, including Arizona, UW, and Oregon State. WSU also moved up. The separation between the top 7 teams and the next 4 teams remains large; and the separation between those 4 and Colorado also remains large.

Because there is so much going on at the top of the Pac-12, here is a chart showing just the top 6 teams and the changes in the last week.

Utah is now the top team in the rankings, followed closely by USC and then Oregon. UCLA dropped after their loss while UW and Oregon State both moved into the top-25 after their wins.

Here is a comparison for the Pac-12 teams between these Composite Rankings, the SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2022-ratings.html), the CBS Sports poll (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/cbs-sports-rankings) , and the ESPN FPI (https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi) .

Ranking Comparison For Pac-12 Teams

School Composite Rank SRS CBS FPI
School Composite Rank SRS CBS FPI
Arizona 70 76 71 74
Arizona State 83 86 87 70
California 84 78 104 72
Colorado 118 121 121 121
Oregon 13 14 12 13
Oregon State 23 28 24 28
Stanford 80 80 88 80
UCLA 18 18 16 29
USC 11 15 7 14
Utah 10 10 11 6
Washington 21 25 15 27
WSU 36 43 41 43

There is very little difference between the Composite Ranking and the SRS; ESPN’s FPI is also very similar except for UCLA. The biggest difference is with Cal-going between 104 in the CBS Sports ranking and being in the 70’s or 80’s on the others. CBS has USC as a top-10 team (which matches the other polls, but the other rankings do not.

Advanced Stats

Last week I included the FEI and Offensive and Defensive FEI ranks for the Pac-12 teams. These get updated each week. Below is a table showing the values from last week and the updated numbers from this week.

FEI Ranks for Pac-12 Teams

School FEI Rank (Last Wk) FEI Rank (This Wk) OFEI Rank (Last Wk) OFEI Rank (This Wk) DFEI Rank (Last Wk) DFEI Rank (This Wk)
School FEI Rank (Last Wk) FEI Rank (This Wk) OFEI Rank (Last Wk) OFEI Rank (This Wk) DFEI Rank (Last Wk) DFEI Rank (This Wk)
Arizona 83 75 36 32 121 119
Arizona State 84 85 55 53 106 104
California 71 77 78 83 56 61
Colorado 123 123 122 127 112 110
Oregon 9 14 3 4 62 74
Oregon State 40 28 48 45 35 23
Stanford 82 90 98 98 78 85
UCLA 27 29 5 6 70 78
USC 13 13 2 3 103 94
Utah 11 9 19 11 30 31
Washington 38 32 14 10 84 82
WSU 28 26 53 59 28 27

Oregon State had the biggest improvement. UW and Arizona also had notable improvements. And each of those teams improved not just overall, but on both offense and defense. Cal, Oregon, and UCLA all dropped overall as well as both offensively and defensively. Stanford dropped overall and on defense, but was unchanged on offense.

It is still the case that the Pac-12 is very good offensively, and not-so-good defensively. Five of the top-12 offensive teams are from the Pac-12. Defensively there are only 3 Pac-12 teams in the top 50. Utah appears to be the most complete team since they are in the top-12 on offense and #31 on defense; that’s possibly why they are ranked the highest.

ESPN FPI

Here is the updated information for the Pac-12 teams including current win projections for the season.

ESPN FPI Win Projections for Pac-12 Teams

Team Current FPI Rank Current Wins Favored Total Projected Wins
Team Current FPI Rank Current Wins Favored Total Projected Wins
Utah 6 8 2 9.8
Oregon 13 8 1 9.3
USC 14 9 2 10.6
Washington 27 8 2 9.5
Oregon State 28 7 1 8.1
UCLA 29 8 1 9.2
WSU 43 6 1 7.1
Arizona State 70 3 0 3.8
California 72 3 1 3.9
Arizona 74 4 1 4.9
Stanford 80 3 0 3.8
Colorado 121 1 0 1.1
Win projections from ESPN FPI after week 11

The table includes each teams current win total as well as the number of remaining games where they are favored (win percentage greater than 50%). If you add those numbers together, that should be the same as rounding of ESPN’s projected win total for each team (right-most column).

The Pac-12 now has 7 bowl-eligible teams. Arizona is the only other Pac-12 team that has a chance to make a bowl game. The Wildcats have to win their remaining 2 games. Those games are against WSU and ASU. ESPN’s FPI gives them a better than 20% of winning both games, although both games are at home which should help.

ESPN’s FPI now has UW as a slight favorite in the Apple Cup (win percentage of 50.3%), and they are obviously a heavy favorite (96.6%) over Colorado this weekend.

Here are all of the winning percentages for this week’s Pac-12 games.

ESPN FPI Win Projections for Week 12 Pac-12 Games

Visitor Win % Home Win %
Visitor Win % Home Win %
WSU 62.70% Arizona 37.30%
Oregon State 68.80% Arizona State 31.20%
Stanford 36.30% California 63.70%
Utah 51.80% Oregon 48.20%
USC 60.50% UCLA 39.50%
Colorado 3.40% Washington 96.60%

Most of the games are expected to be relatively close. Upsets are possible, especially given what happened last weekend. The exception is hopefully the UW-Colorado game. With a win percentage like that this late in the season, an upset would be very unlikely.

After missing on the 2 upsets last weekend, ESPN’s FPI has now been correct for 84% of the Pac-12 games.

Talent Comparison

So far this season the team with more talent (https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/) in games with Pac-12 teams has won 78% of the games. This is now below the ESPN FPI win projections. Last week the team with the less talent won 5 of the six games. (The only exception was USC beating Colorado.) This week there are 4 teams with less talent that are favored; only USC and UW are the teams with more talent that are favored.

Thoughts

If you want to really get confused, you are in the right place following the Pac-12 because this is what has happened this year:

Colorado beat California, which beat Arizona, which beat UCLA, which beat Utah, which beat USC, which beat Oregon State, which beat Washington State, which beat Stanford, which beat Arizona State, which beat Washington, which beat Oregon, which beat Colorado.

That is a complete circle which includes all of the Pac-12 teams!

At this point in the season, what this means for rankings is that a team that beat another team is going to be ranked below that team. Rankings are going to look at the entire ‘body of work’ and not focus on individual games. There are still a couple of more games, and that ‘body of work’ can be changed, so there can still be some changes coming-especially among the top 6 or 7 teams.

Poll

Where should UW be ranked now?

  • 48%
    Top 15
    (142 votes)
  • 37%
    Between 16 and 20
    (110 votes)
  • 5%
    Between 21 and 25
    (17 votes)
  • 0%
    Not in the top 25
    (1 vote)
  • 8%
    Doesn’t matter as long as they are ranked above the Ducks
    (24 votes)
294 votes total Vote Now