FanPost

Tiebreak Scenarios - How UW Can/Can't Make the Pac-12 Championship Game

So after last night a lot of people have been asking how UW can still play for the conference title and the answer is: It's really complicated and highly unlikely.

Bear with me here as this is going to get really technical into the Pac-12 tie break scenarios. Obviously UW needs to win out to make this happen. Also assume that if I didn't list a game result that means the top-5 team beat their bottom-7 opponent (i.e. Utah vs. Colorado or UCLA vs. Cal). If I didn't list a scenario it's because it would result in two or more 1-loss teams so UW would already be eliminated.

Scenario #1: 5-way tie between UW, Utah, USC, UCLA, and O****n. O****n beats Utah, OSU beats O****n, and UCLA beats USC

TLDR: #1 O****n vs. #2 Utah. UW finishes 3rd, 4th, or 5th.

In this scenario we have all five teams at 7-2.

Common opponents: Arizona, Colorado, Stanford.

So on to the tie-break.
  1. Not all teams have played each other so head-to-head doesn't apply.
  2. UCLA is the only team that's not 3-0 against common opponents so they are removed.
  3. 4-way tie with UW, O****n, USC, and Utah remaining.
  4. UCLA becomes a common opponent. O****n is 4-0 against common opponents and everyone else is 3-1.
  5. O*****n becomes the #1 seed.
  6. BACK TO A 4-WAY TIE: UW, USC, Utah, UCLA. - This is a strange tie because UCLA has beaten everyone but I believe the head-to-head wins for them don't apply due to the way the rule is written.
  7. Common opponents are now Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and ASU.
  8. UCLA and UW are 3-1 while USC and Utah are 4-0 so UCLA and UW drop.
  9. 2-way tie with Utah and USC remaining.
  10. Utah wins the head to head and is the #2 seed.
  11. Tie-breakers apply from then on and either UW, O****n, or UCLA eventually is dropped on the ASU/O****n/Arizona losses.
As you can see this scenario is a loss for us due to the UCLA loss first and the ASU loss second. We would have been better off losing to OSU and WSU.

Scenario #2: 3-way tie between UW, Utah, and O****n. O****n beats Utah, OSU beats O****n, USC beats UCLA, and UCLA beats Cal

TLDR: #1 USC vs. #2 O****n. UW finishes 4th.

In this scenario we have USC at 8-1, UCLA at 6-3 (this is really important), OSU at 6-3 or worse, and UW/Utah/O****n at 7-2 each.

Common opponents: UCLA, Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, OSU.


Tie-break:
  1. UW hasn't played Utah so we proceed to common opponents.
  2. All three teams are 4-1 against common opponents.
  3. Record against highest finish common opponent (and proceeding down from there). UCLA and OSU are next and are tied so they are treated as a group.
  4. Record against that group is taken. Each tied team is 1-1 against OSU and UCLA so it proceeds to a tie-break for UCLA and OSU.
  5. UCLA and OSU have no head-to-head.
  6. UCLA and OSU common opponents: ASU, Cal, Colorado, O****n, Stanford, Utah, USC, Washington
  7. UCLA is 6-2 and OSU is 5-3 against commons. UCLA becomes the 5th place team.
  8. Back to the three-way tie - O****n has beaten UCLA while Utah and UW lost. O****n becomes the #2 seed.
This scenario is also very bad for us because UCLA actually becomes the bad loss (the ASU loss means nothing in this situation because O****n didn't play them). So even though we beat O****n they get promoted ahead of us due to being the only team of the three to beat UCLA (who unfortunately finishes ahead of OSU). But!!! There's a small glimmer of hope...

Scenario #3: 3-way tie between UW, Utah, and O****n, USC beats UCLA, Cal beats UCLA, OSU beats ASU

TLDR: #1 USC vs. #2 UW.

In this scenario we have USC at 8-1, UCLA at 5-4 (this is really important), OSU at 6-3, and UW/Utah/O****n at 7-2 each. Here's the path that gets us here:

  1. O****n beats Utah.
  2. OSU beats O****n.
  3. USC beats UCLA.
  4. Cal beats UCLA.
  5. OSU beats ASU.
Common opponents: UCLA, Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, OSU.

Tie break:
  1. UW hasn't played Utah so we proceed to common opponents.
  2. All three teams are 4-1 against common opponents.
  3. Record against highest finish common opponent (and proceeding down from there): OSU is ahead of UCLA so O****n is eliminated due to their loss to OSU.
  4. 2-way tie between UW and Utah proceeds. O****n, ASU, and WSU become common opponents.
  5. UW hasn't played Utah so we again proceed to common opponents.
  6. UW is 6-2 against common opponents and Utah is also 6-2 so we proceed to highest finish common opponent.
  7. Because we just eliminated O****n from the tie-breaker they are the highest rated common opponent. UW is 1-0 while Utah is 0-1. UW becomes the #2 seed.

This is our thinnest and most likely path to the conference title game. Not good.

Scenario #4: 4-way tie between UW, Utah, UCLA and USC. UCLA beats USC, O****n beats Utah and OSU


TLDR: #1 O****n vs. #2 Utah. See scenario #1 tie-break. It's the same thing (note that this may be UCLA as #2 as I note above).

Scenario #5: 2-way tie between UW and O****n. USC beats UCLA, OSU beats ASU/O****n, O****n beats Utah, Colorado beats Utah

TLDR: #1 USC vs. #2 UW

In this scenario we have USC at 8-1, UW/O****n at 7-2, and Utah/UCLA at 6-3. This one is easy - UW wins the head to head tie break.

And this is our second most likely path to the title game. It would require an epic collapse from Utah. I would kiss this goodbye because I really don't see it happening.

Scenario #6: 2-way tie between UW and Utah, USC beats UCLA, OSU beats ASU/O****n, Utah beats O****n, Colorado beats Utah

TLDR: #1 USC vs. #2Utah

In this scenario we have USC at 8-1, UW/Utah at 7-2, and O****n/UCLA at 6-3. This proceeds exactly like the UW/Utah tie-breaker from Scenario 3 (beginning at step #4) with the exception being that both teams have beaten O****n. As such, it proceeds down the list of teams and because ASU is already guaranteed to be above Colorado the tie-break goes to Utah.

Summary:

So there you have it. UW has two very very narrow paths through this to the title game and there are some mandatory results that get us there. For your rooting interests here we go.

Must Happen:

  1. OSU defeats O****n
  2. O****n defeats Utah
  3. USC defeats UCLA
Need ONE of these:
  1. Colorado defeats Utah
  2. Cal defeats UCLA, OSU defeats ASU