How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Thursday, 1/20/22
Tip-Off Time: 8:30 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: Huskies Gameday App
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Oregon State Beavers 2021-22 Statistics:
Record: 3-13 (1-5)
Points For per Game: 70.2 ppg (175th)
Points Against per Game: 68.8 ppg (158th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 106.6 (105th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (199th)
Strength of Schedule: 22nd
Oregon State Key Players:
G- Dashawn Davis, Jr. 6’2, 185: 9.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 45.5% FG, 12.5% 3pt, 65.6% FT
Davis has come in as a JUCO transfer and done a solid job taking over the point guard role for the Beavers. He’s #3 in Pac-12 play in assist rate and has done better than the 2:1 ratio for assists to turnovers. The problem? He can’t shoot. In the last 6 games he’s 0/3 from the 3-pt range so Washington can play the passing lanes and play far off of Davis when he has the ball.
G- Jarod Lucas, Jr. 6’4, 195: 14.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.9 apg, 43.5% FG, 40.2% 3pt, 85.1% FT
Lucas has built off his breakout season last year but he just isn’t quite the kind of player that can carry a team the way Terrell Brown Jr. does. Close to 2/3rds of Lucas’ shots are from behind the 3-point arc and he’s at his best as a catch and shoot guy. Washington can’t give Lucas any space when he catches the ball or he can burn them since he has 3 games already this year with 5+ made 3’s.
G- Dexter Akanno, So. 6’5. 210: 4.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 0.7 apg, 41.8% FG, 34.5% 3pt, 53.3% FT
The Beavers have rotated through a lot of guys for who is the 5th option and right now it looks like Akanno might have the edge coming over from Marquette. He’s at least a passable outside shooter even if he struggles from the line. The turnovers are too high for a role player but at least the rebounding rates are fine for a 6’5 guard. Meh.
F- Warith Alatishe, Sr. 6’8. 210: 11.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 55.6% FG, 40.0% 3pt, 40.0% FT
I thought Alatishe had a chance to become an all-conference contributor with his supreme athleticism but he hasn’t quite taken the leap. For a 6’8 player his rebounding and block rates are well above average although they are down from last season. That 40% 3-pt percentage above is misleading since it’s on 10 total attempts and he’s still just 20% from deep for his career so he does the majority of his work in the paint.
C- Roman Silva, Sr. 7'1, 265: 4.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 58.3% FG, 65.0% FT
Silva would be a perfectly solid Pac-12 center except he just can’t stay on the court. For the 3rd straight season he’s averaging more than 6 fouls per 40 minutes and in Oregon State’s last game he fouled out in just 17 minutes. The other big downside is that Silva’s defensive rebounding rate is about what you’d expect from a 6’6 wing although he can be a weapon still on the offensive glass.
The Mike Hopkins extension is going to be viewed very unfavorably to history even if I think it was justified at the time. It was less justified for Wayne Tinkle to get a massive extension because he took the Beavers on a magical 6-game winning streak to win the Pac-12 tournament and get to the Elite 8. Now Tinkle is reminding Oregon State that without Tres Tinkle or Ethan Thompson that the Beavs don’t have the talent to compete at the highest levels of the conference.
After a season opening win against Portland State the Beavers dropped 10 straight including losses to Samford, Princeton, Tulsa, and UC Davis with 3 of those at home. Oregon State is 1-12 against teams in the KenPom top-150 right now with only a home win against Utah.
One of the reasons for Oregon State’s struggles is just a lack of consistency. 10 different players have started a game partly due to injuries and partly because Wayne Tinkle has been tinkering to try to find the right combination. 7 different players have played between 28 and 38% of the team’s minutes (11-15 minutes per game). At some point you’d think Tinkle will have to just pick 8-9 guys and roll with them.
If there is one strength for this team it’s the offense. Despite the 1-5 Pac-12 record the Beavers are 6th in offensive efficiency during conference play. Oregon State has struggled from deep overall on the season (32.3%) but are #1 in the Pac-12 in conference games (36.3%). The problem is that even if they’re shooting a good percentage that they just don’t take very many outside shots. Jarod Lucas is the only Beaver averaging at least 2 3-pt attempts per game and 2nd place on the team is 6’10 Maurice Calloo who is shooting just 30.6%.
Instead Oregon State tries to get the ball inside and they generally succeed. 60% of their points this season have come on 2-pt shots which is the 10th highest total in the country. Of the 13 players who have played at least 10% of their minutes so far this year, 8 of them are shooting better than 50% on 2-pointers and Jarod Lucas is right behind them at 48.5%. This would be a good time for Riley Sorn to be able to return from COVID protocols because the Huskies will want all the shot blocking help they can get as Oregon State repeatedly attacks the basket.
Where things have really fallen apart for Oregon State is trying to stop their opponents from doing whatever they want. Despite the insistence of going inside on offense the Beavs have been killed by opponents doing the same thing which bodes well for Washington. Opponents are shooting 53.3% on 2-pointers and rebounding 32.7% of their misses against Oregon State. Both marks are worse than 300th nationally. Expect Nate Roberts to provide plenty of extra opportunities and hopefully he will kick it out rather than trying to post up when he does.
There’s a reason that Oregon State is ranked higher at KenPom despite the 3-13 overall record other than just they were higher in the preseason addition of the rankings. There have been some really close losses to good teams in that time. They’ve lost by 3 in OT to #48 Wake Forest, by 2 to #50 Oregon, and by 1 to #143 Princeton. The Beavers are 0-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer. At some point you’d think they have to win a close game.
If Washington wins this game they move to 4-2 in Pac-12 play and are guaranteed to finish out the week with a winning conference record despite starting out with 5 of their first 7 on the road. Given where the Huskies were at the end of conference play that would mark a stunning turn around. Even if a lot of fans have given up on this team it’s clear that the Dawgs still believe they’re good enough to put themselves in position to make a run in the Pac-12 tournament. If they want any shot at finishing .500 in the Pac-12 and rising into the middle class on the conference then this represents a must-win game. Or else all the goodwill brought on by winning 3 of 4 goes out the window.
Washington Huskies- 70, Oregon State Beavers- 64