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30 Day Countdown: Day 10 - Husky Prop Bets

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Step right up and put down your hard earned fictional cash

NCAA Football: Arizona at Washington Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

For someone who has never actually placed a legitimate bet on a sports event I’m still probably in the 99th percentile in following sports gambling. Therefore coming up with imaginary prop bets is right down my alley.

If you really want to play along then write in the comments how you would divide up your money if you were given a free $100 credit at the UWDP sportsbook and are obligated to put at least $10 on each wager.

For those unfamiliar with general sports betting terms, the minus or plus next to the number speaks to how much money you would win. For example if the choice you go with is (+200) then it means you would win $200 by betting $100 (get your $100 back plus another $200). Meanwhile a bet of (-150) would signify that you would have to bet $150 in order to win $100 (get your $150 back plus another $100 for $250 total).

Poll

How Many True Freshmen (2020 & 2021 classes) Will Redshirt In 2021?

This poll is closed

  • 39%
    Over 26.5 (+120)
    (87 votes)
  • 60%
    Under 26.5 (-110)
    (136 votes)
223 votes total Vote Now

If it weren’t for the eligibility mulligan last year this question would be pretty straightforward since it seems unlikely that any of UW’s 2021 class will play a major role barring injuries ahead of them. However, the class of 2020 are all still eligible to take a redshirt year and so we’re going to include them as well.

That means up to 35 could potentially redshirt. Many are expected to be key contributors if they remain healthy and the following are all but guaranteed to play more than the requisite 4 games needed to maintain a redshirt: Odunze, Polk, Redman, Smalls, McDonald, and LS Jaden Green. WR Jalen McMillan is out for an unknown length of time but as long as he returns by midseason will surely eclipse that mark as well.

Out of the remaining 28 how many will play more than 4 games? Some of the fringe cases based on the current apparent depth chart include QB Sam Huard, DL Kuao Peihopa, CB Jacobe Covington, and CB Elijah Jackson. Based on that we’re setting the over/under at 26.5.

Poll

Who will score the longest Husky TD this season?

This poll is closed

  • 7%
    Terrell Bynum (+200)
    (23 votes)
  • 20%
    Rome Odunze (+250)
    (65 votes)
  • 35%
    Giles Jackson (+250)
    (114 votes)
  • 10%
    Richard Newton (+500)
    (34 votes)
  • 5%
    Cam Davis (+500)
    (17 votes)
  • 7%
    Sean McGrew (+500)
    (25 votes)
  • 12%
    The Field (+300)
    (41 votes)
319 votes total Vote Now

For the 2nd consecutive year the previous winner in this category is no longer with the team (Salvon Ahmed then Puka Nacua). There are still a few obvious contenders. WR Terrell Bynum is the betting favorite as the clear #1 target in the offense with Rome Odunze not far behind. Giles Jackson has multiple kick returns for TDs in his career albeit they were for another team (Michigan).

The running back position appears that it will be a committee approach yet again which makes it difficult to parse out. Richard Newton had a 54-yard TD run last season but before that wasn’t known as a home run threat. Cam Davis seems to have the most raw talent but Sean McGrew has plenty of speed as well. Or do you go with the field? That would include a potential long defensive touchdown as well as Jalen McMillan potentially getting punt return work once he’s back from injury.

Poll

Which Group Will Have More Sacks In 2021?

This poll is closed

  • 28%
    Ryan Bowman & Zion Tupuola-Fetui (+150)
    (83 votes)
  • 71%
    Bralen Trice, Sav’ell Smalls, & Cooper McDonald (-130)
    (212 votes)
295 votes total Vote Now

There appears to be one constant at the outside linebacker position for this fall and that is that Ryan Bowman is entrenched as one of the starters. It would be a fait accompli that Zion Tupuola-Fetui would start opposite him if he were healthy but unfortunately ZTF tore his Achilles in the spring. Jimmy Lake has been insistent that he will return at some point this season but it’s unclear if that means from anywhere between 1 and 5 games and whether he will be as devastatingly effective coming back that soon.

Bowman has played 3 full seasons and come up with 5.5 sacks twice so that seems like a fair benchmark. If ZTF comes back immediately to form with 5 games left in the season then you could be looking at another 5+ from him. Of course you could also potentially get a goose egg if there’s a setback.

The combo of Trice, Smalls, and McDonald have 0 career sacks but you would expect that they will make up at least 60% of the OLB rotation. I’m sure the coaching staff is certainly hoping to get at least 8 combined sacks out of this grouping while ZTF is out in order to have an above average pass rush. I’m listing the younglings here as the favorites with their upside. But do you want to bet on a miraculous ZTF return instead?

Poll

Which Pairing At Running Back Will Play The Most Combined Offensive Snaps?

This poll is closed

  • 51%
    Kamari Pleasant & Richard Newton (-110)
    (150 votes)
  • 48%
    Sean McGrew & Cameron Davis (+120)
    (141 votes)
291 votes total Vote Now

Last season this was a close call as Pleasant (110) and Newton (40) combined for 27 more snaps than McGrew (86) and Davis (37). That was the case even though Newton essentially got benched for half of the year as he didn’t play in the final 2 games. Early reports from the practices so far this month indicate that Newton looks like he’s running most often with the 1’s, then Davis, then McGrew, then Pleasant. If that’s in fact the case then this is 1+4 versus 2+3.

However, last fall no one foresaw Kamari Pleasant being named the starter and if he’s still the most reliable pass blocker then he could still see a lot of 3rd down usage even if he doesn’t get as many carries. Newton missed a few games in his freshman season due to injury and his physical running style could potentially lend itself to that happening again.

Sean McGrew with his slight frame has certainly also dealt with injuries in his Husky career but runs between the tackles a little bit less than the others. And seemingly every UW fan is hoping that Cameron Davis emerges as the most talented of the foursome and makes it evident that the job should belong to him.

Poll

How Many Games Will Washington Win By 20+ Points?

This poll is closed

  • 5%
    0-1 Games (+300)
    (17 votes)
  • 51%
    2-3 Games (+150)
    (161 votes)
  • 34%
    4-5 Games (+200)
    (107 votes)
  • 8%
    6+ Games (+250)
    (26 votes)
311 votes total Vote Now

There are really only 2 games this season that I would bet heavily against the Huskies winning by 20+ games and they come back-to-back on the schedule: at Stanford and home against Oregon. I’m also quite inclined to believe it won’t happen against Michigan but I’m not going to call it completely out of the realm of possibility that Harbaugh has just lost that team after taking a massive pay cut to stay. I also think that Arizona State has the potential to be very good but is it crazy to think in the next 3 months that basically their entire coaching staff will be on administrative leave?

That leaves realistically 8 games where I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see a win by 3+ touchdowns even if it isn’t the most likely result. The opener against FCS Montana, home for Arkansas State, and home for the Apple Cup against a WSU team in turmoil are the 3 easiest candidates. Oregon State, Colorado, and Arizona could all be among the bottom few teams in the conference but they’re all on the road. Cal and UCLA should be a tier above them but those games will be in Husky Stadium.

The best way to think about this though is probably as a bet for how good you think this Husky team will be. In 2016 Washington won 10 games by 20+ points on their way to the College Football Playoff. The next year when they went to the Fiesta Bowl they won 8 games by that margin. Finally in 2018 when they went to the Rose Bowl the Dawgs won just 2 games by that margin (they had 3 wins between 13 and 19 points). How much faith do you have in the Dawgs to win big?

***
If you want to play along at the UWDP casino then take $100 fictional dollars and spread them out with at least $10 on each of the 5 props. Here’s my choices:

Over 26.5 Freshmen to Redshirt +120: $15 to win $18

Giles Jackson to Score Longest TD +250: $30 to win $75

Bowman & ZTF More Sacks +150: $20 to win $30

Pleasant & Newton Combined Snaps -110 $10 to win $9

2-3 Games by 20+ Points +150: $25 to win $37.50

Combined Total: $100 to win $169.50