Date: Thursday, 2/4/21
Tip-Off Time: 6:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: KJR 950 AM/KVI 570
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Betting line: Washington +5.5
Oregon State Beavers 2020-21 Statistics:
Record: 8-7 (4-5)
Points For per Game: 68.6 ppg (218th)
Points Against per Game: 70.1 ppg (160th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.9 (96th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (157th)
Strength of Schedule: 94th
Oregon State Key Players:
G- Ethan Thompson, Sr. 6’5, 195: 16.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.0 apg, 41.0% FG, 33.8% 3pt, 76.4% FT
And then there was one. Ethan is the last coaches’ son standing after his brother and Tres Tinkle both have finally departed. Everything runs through Ethan and he has been solid as the primary decision maker for the Beavers. There’s nothing he can’t do although there are few elements of his game where he’s truly extraordinary.
G- Jarod Lucas, So. 6’3, 195: 12.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 38.3% FG, 42.2% 3pt, 94.7% FT
Think Dominic Green as Lucas has been a sniper from outside but can’t hit a shot in the paint to save his life. He’s just 4/15 around the basket and yet is 9/16 on corner 3-pt attempts. The Huskies absolutely can’t leave him open on the perimeter as he won’t hesitate to put up a semi-open look from deep and will probably make it.
F- Warith Alatishe, Jr. 6’7, 200: 8.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 45.5% FG, 67.9% FT
Wayne Tinkle deserves some credit as he manages to continually find quality big men via the JUCO route. He may be an undersized center but Alatishe is a monster around the basket. He’s not quite the finisher that Abogidi is for Wazzu but otherwise his rebounding and block rates are in the same tier. Expect a guaranteed double double for Alatishe against the UW zone.
G- Zach Reichle, Sr. 6’5, 205: 7.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 40.2 FG, 32.7% 3pt, 81.8% FT
Consider Reichle to be Ethan Thompson lite. The only major difference in their statistical profiles is their usage rate so when Thompson is on the bench the Beavers trust Reichle to help run the show. His turnovers are maybe a tad high but otherwise he’s at least average in basically every other category across the board.
F- Maurice Calloo, Jr. 6’10, 220: 6.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 39.4% FG, 40.9% 3pt, 83.3% FT
Another JUCO big for the Beavers is Calloo who has some clear parallels to Hameir Wright except that Calloo is a better outside shooter. He’s most comfortable on the perimeter although his shot distribution is closer to 50/50. Although he’s the tallest primary contributor for Oregon State he’s not a factor on the offensive glass and isn’t much of a rim protector.
G- Gianni Hunt, Jr. 6’3, 180: 5.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 35.7% FG, 38.2% 3pt, 77.8% FT
Hunt has completely revamped his game as a sophomore. He’s still a very poor inside finisher but has taken major leaps as both a shooter and a passer. His assist rate from year 1 to 2 has increased from 12.0 to 33.9 (5th overall in the Pac-12) and his 3-pt percentage is up from 30% to 38%. It’s not often that you see a team with 3 different players averaging 3+ assists but Hunt is capable as either a primary or secondary ball handler.
Oregon State 2020-21 Shot Chart
After a promising 2-0 week the Huskies were incredibly flat in a blowout home loss to Washington State on Sunday night. Now Washington heads on the road to play an Oregon State team that has been playing much better basketball of late.
Unfortunately for the Huskies this is a fairly large Oregon State team even if they’re not all that great of a team. Currently the Beavers rank 18th nationally in average height at 6-feet, 5.3-inches. Washington has played 5 other teams this year at least that tall and are 0-5 by an average score of 80-60. The Dawgs are 3-7 with an average score of 76-71 against shorter teams.
If there’s any good news it’s that Oregon State hasn’t relayed their height advantage into dominant scoring in the paint. The Beavers’ impressive size mostly comes from playing a lot of guards that are 6’3-6’5. As a team they’re shooting just 50% in the paint which is well below average and also have really struggled on midrange jumpers. If you look at the areas the Husky defense really have problems with, Oregon State really isn’t very well equipped to punish them very well.
While the areas of the court that OSU excels shooting from doesn’t overlap well for them against Washington, one element that does bode well for the Beavers is their passing. Oregon State gets an assist on 64.2% of baskets which is 7th in the country. The Husky zone has had its problems but the one sure way to defeat it is to have crisp efficient passing to find the holes. This is not a Beavers team that relies on isolation and 1-on-1 scoring which is generally what Washington wants teams to try to attempt.
On the other end of the court, Oregon State’s defensive efficiency has been pretty close to Washington’s. Their saving grace has been that teams generally don’t shoot the ball very well from deep against them. The Beavers have a lot of length on the perimeter and Quade Green and Erik Stevenson might have trouble finding open looks against the Oregon State defense. However, teams have generally carved them up inside. This would be a fantastic time for Nate Roberts or Riley Sorn to touch the ball a lot with multiple offensive rebounds.
After seeing the effort this team put forth against Washington State it’s tough to have much confidence. This isn’t a superb Oregon State squad even if they have a couple nice wins including at home against USC and at Oregon. If we see the Husky team that is making outside shots and went 2-1 prior to the Cougar game then Washington could certainly escape Corvallis with a win. But it’s definitely not the most likely scenario.
Washington Huskies- 64, Oregon State Beavers- 75
Keep up with the game in the comments below. You can also follow me for all your UW Men’s Basketball News and Game Updates @UWDP_maxvroom