How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Tuesday, 11/23/21
Tip-Off Time: 6:30 pm PT
Streaming: ESPN+ at Espn.com/watch
(If you haven’t done so before you can sign up for an ESPN+ free trial this week to get the games online. It’s also just $6.99 per month and you can cancel before the end of the month so that it only costs you about $2.50 per game to watch all 3 this week. If you already have Disney+ or Hulu it’s also only a little bit extra to get the full bundle and add ESPN+.)
Radio: KJR 950 AM/KVI 570
Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
DraftKings Betting Line: Washington Huskies +6.5
South Dakota State 2021-22 Statistics:
Points For per Game: 89.0 ppg (8th)
Points Against per Game: 77.8 ppg (287th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.1 (18th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (143rd)
Strength of Schedule: 112th
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Key Players:
G-Bailey Scheierman, So. 6’6, 205: 13.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 49.1% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 87.5% FT
Washington played Wyoming’s Hunter Maldonado last week and get a very similar type player in Scheierman who is a jumbo point guard. Last season he averaged 15, 9, and 4 and is off to a 13, 11, and 4 start this year so it’s legitimate. Unlike Maldonado, Scheierman is a legitimate 3-point threat who prefers his jump shot to iso drives to the basket. He’s shooting 53% on unguarded jumpers this season so UW has to account for him at all times. Last year he was 18th in the country in defensive rebounding rate and so far this year is 12th despite having 0 offensive boards. That’s a split I’ve never seen before.
G- Alex Arians, Jr. 6’4, 200: 9.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.8 apg, 51.4% FG, 64.3% 3pt, 87.5% FT
The 64% 3-pt shooting is going to regress to the mean at some point but he’s a career 40% shooter on over 200 attempts so no matter what he’s a plus in that regard. Arians has made 75% of both contested and uncontested jumpers this season so the only way to keep him from shooting has been to keep him from getting the ball at all. He’s had a few games with turnover difficulties but had 6 assists and 0 turns against Nevada last night.
G- Zeke Mayo, Fr. 6’3, 179: 7.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 45.7% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 100.0% FT
Mayo is in his first college action this season but is off to a solid start. His 3.9% steal rate leads the team so expect him to see some time guarding Terrell Brown Jr. Consequently his most common play type is in transition so he isn’t going to do a ton of taking guys off the dribble.
G- Noah Friedel, So. 6’4, 200: 19.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 52.7% FG, 46.9% 3pt, 61.5% FT
Last year Friedel was one of the premier scorers in the Summit League averaging 16 points per game and he has picked up where he left off. He ranks in the 83rd percentile or better nationally per Synergy Sports as a spot up shooter, in transition, and running pick and roll so he can score however he wants (except posting up down low). He’s just an efficiency machine with a career slash line of 45/40/79 shooting.
F- Douglas Wilson, Sr. 6’7, 220: 15.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 57,3% FG, 57.1% FT
Wilson may be undersized for a center but he doesn’t play like it. Somehow the 15 points he’s averaging right now would actually be a career low as he put up 18.6 pts, 6.4 reb and 16.8 pts, 5.4 reb in his previous 2 years. Wilson is not a great rebounder by any means (although good on the offensive glass) but he can flat out put the ball in the basket. He’s not an amazing post-up specialist like recent centers UW has faced which is good news for Nate Roberts but he’s excellent cutting to the basket and running the floor in transition for easy buckets. That has led him to be 4th in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes which is worse news for Nate Roberts.
Washington saw a step up in competition the last 2 games with Wyoming and George Mason but get to experience another leap playing South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been good over the last decade with 5 NCAA tournament appearances but this squad has a chance to be the best one yet.
The key for South Dakota State is that they play like their namesake. They’re 7th in the country in tempo as they want to get out and play in transition as often as possible. Playing at a fast pace sometimes overinflates offensive numbers but this is a legitimately devastating offense even when accounting for pace. SDSU is 15th in the country in effective field goal percentage and shooting 42.1% from 3-point range. That’s the only area where their offense is truly elite but if you’re going to pick one spot then that’s a pretty good one.
No one on SDSU’s roster is taller than 6’8 so what they don’t have in size they make up for in speed. Occasionally you’ll see them bring out a lineup with 2 6’7 or 6’8 players but most of the time it will be a 4 guard lineup designed to space the floor and leave room for Douglas Wilson to cut to the basket inside. Four Jackrabbits are shooting at least 40% on at least 1.5 attempts from deep per game so you should generally assume that everyone can shoot the ball which prevents teams from packing the paint.
Predictably SDSU can sometimes struggle on the defensive end. The best team they’ve faced this season, Alabama, put up 104 points as they shot 64% from 2-point range. That’s good news for a Washington team that likes to drive to the basket. The Jackrabbits will have the foot speed to keep up on the perimeter but don’t have the kind of length that can alter and block shots. They’re 325th nationally in block rate on defense. So far they haven’t been vulnerable to giving up a lot of free throws but UW needs to keep driving the ball and forcing the issue.
South Dakota State has plenty of advantages in this one. They run a legitimate 10 man rotation to allow them to keep playing fast at all times. The game isn’t in their home arena but it’s only an hour away so will feel like a true road contest. Finally, despite featuring mostly underclassmen SDSU ranks 4th in minutes continuity. They brought back nearly everyone from a team that won the Summit League regular season title before getting upset in the conference tournament.
Washington’s best lineup this season has been when they’ve played 4 guards with Emmitt Matthews Jr. at the 5. South Dakota State’s rotation patterns may allow Washington to go with that lineup for longer stretches and actually work to UW’s advantage. If the Huskies had a true post threat they could eat in this game but that’s just not who Nate Roberts is unfortunately. I just don’t think that Washington quite has the offense to keep up even if their defense should present a legitimate challenge with its length and athleticism.
Washington Huskies- 78, South Dakota State Jackrabbits- 87