This isn't a projection of which Pac12 teams will go to which bowls. (There are several football sites that are doing that kind of projection-very little of which I trust at the moment.) This is just a look at which Pac12 teams may (or may not) make it to a bowl game at all.
A few weeks ago, some Husky fans would have laughed at the thought of UW going to a bowl game this year. But after 2 wins in a row, UW's chances of going to a bowl are now at least something to consider. (More on that later.)
As of now, only 1 Pac12 team is bowl-eligible (Oregon). One Pac12 team will not be going to a bowl game (Arizona). The other 10 teams are still fighting for that (and other goals). I'm going to look at each team to see what their chances are.
Maybe next year (or the year after, or the year after that).
The Sun Devils have 5 wins and have 4 more games to play, including against Arizona. They are all but assured of being in a bowl game. (And to those fans who, before the season, thought that they would implode because of the off-season issues and firing of several assistants, you were wrong. They will probably not win the Pac12 South, but they'll probably finish 2nd.)
Some may look at their 3-5 record and dismiss their chances of making it to a bowl game. But their remaining schedule makes it look possible. They face Arizona this weekend, which should be a win. They also play USC, Stanford, and UCLA; all of those teams are not playing very well, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Cal could win 3 more games. The only problem for them is that 3 of those 4 games are on the road (although 2 are still in California). There's probably not even a 50-50 chance that they get to a bowl game, but at least there is a chance.
Technically they still have a chance at 2-6. But when you look at their schedule you can see that their chances are slim. They still have to face Oregon State, UCLA, UW, and Utah. To make it to a bowl game, they'd have to win all 4. Maybe they win 1; if they are lucky 2. But I can't see them winning even 3.
As I mentioned above, they are already bowl-eligible. For them the question is whether it is a playoff bowl or a different NY6 bowl. But, their remaining schedule has quite a few potential issues. They still have to play the 3 top teams in the Pac12 North (UW, WSU, and Oregon State); plus they have to play at Utah. Winning all of those games will not be easy; and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose as many as 2 of those games.
Barring a sudden collapse, it seems all but certain that Smith will have the Beavers in a bowl game this year. They already have 5 wins and play Colorado and Stanford in their next two games. I would be shocked if they weren't bowl-eligible by then. And that will be fortunate because they play Arizona State and Oregon after that; neither of those games will be easy.
Like California, Stanford is at 3-5. But their road to getting bowl-eligible is more difficult than Cal's. Stanford still has to play Utah, Oregon State, and Cal in Pac12 play; then they play Notre Dame in their last game. As with Colorado, maybe they win one of those games; they'll be lucky to win 2; and I don't see how they win 3 even though they play 3 of those games at home.
The Bruins only have 3 games left (they have no game this weekend). But they are already at 5 wins, so picking up one more should not be hard-especially since their next game is against Colorado. They also play USC and Cal, so I'd expect that they could even end up 8-4. (Of course, if the rumors that Chip is done at UCLA, that may have an impact on those remaining games.)
The Trojans are at 4-4 (like UW). But now, without their main offensive weapon (Drake London), who knows what to expect from the Trojans. They play Arizona State, California, UCLA, and then play BYU in their final game. There is reason to think that they should be able to win 2 of those games; but there is also reason to think that they could lose any or all of them. At this point I'll put them at just over 50-50 to make a bowl game.
Utah already has 5 wins and is looking strong after beating the three top teams in the Pac12 South. Three of their remaining games are against Stanford, Arizona, and Colorado; Utah should be favored in all 3. Their remaining game is against Oregon (at home). It is possible they could win all 4.
As I mentioned above, since the beginning of the season I'm sure some Husky fans didn't think UW had much of a chance to make a bowl game. It is certainly not going to be easy. Oregon, Arizona State, and WSU are some of the better teams in the conference this year. Fortunately, all 3 of those games are at home. UW plays its final road game against Colorado. I would have thought that should be an easy win-but I remember 2019 too well. Still, this Colorado team doesn't look as good as even that team was. I put UW's chances of making a bowl at better than 50-50.
WSU is the other Pac12 team that has already played 9 games, so they have just 3 more games in order to get one more win. But they play Arizona at home, so it seems likely they should get that 6th win. And they better beat Arizona because their other 2 games will not be easy. They play Oregon (on the road), and, of course, the Apple Cup in Seattle.
I think that the Pac12 should be able to fill all of their bowl slots. ASU, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah, and WSU all look like they should make it to bowl-eligibility. Plus, there is a good chance that between UW, USC, and Cal that at least one more team may make a bowl game. So, the Pac12 should have between 6 and 8 teams in bowl games this year.