Picking the Pac, Bowl Games: Irritable Bowl Syndrome

Before I get into the short list of Pac-12 bowl picks, I want to note that it’s important to keep the matchups in perspective. The winners of the Pac-12 North and South divisions both opted out of bowl games. Arizona State, Utah, and Stanford all finished the season playing their best ball and none will play in a bowl game. If it looks like the Pac-12 has tough bowl matchups (and it does), it’s because the conference champion was the runner-up in its division and the team that got the #2 bowl game wasn’t even in the top three. It’s a weird year and that weirdness trickled down to bowl matchups.

Alamo Bowl: Texas (-7.5) vs. Colorado

The Buffaloes started the season as the Pac-12’s feel good story. They were 4-0 before a decisive loss to Utah made it clear that they were not conference championship material. Their two “good” wins over UCLA and Stanford were by a combined nine points and both opponents improved as the season went along. That’s not to say Colorado played poorly; Jarek Broussard was a revelation at running back and Sam Noyer performed better than anyone could have predicted. The defense was good more often than not, especially against the pass. Karl Dorrell earned his Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors.

Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images

Texas has had an interesting season, as well. Early losses to TCU and Oklahoma, as well as a pyrrhic victory over Texas Tech while yielding 56 points put Tom Herman on the hot seat. A three-game winning streak punctuated by a win over #6 Oklahoma State seemed to take the heat off a bit, but this was a roster that was supposed to be better than 6-3. Sam Ehlinger has put up video game numbers and Bijan Robinson has been very productive as a freshman. Defense has been the Longhorns’ bugaboo and losing four defensive starters to opt-outs since late November will only enhance that issue.

Colorado’s defense has had trouble with running teams all season. UCLA and Utah trampled their defense, and the combination of Ehlinger’s RPOs and Robinson getting into space will be worth at least 30 points. The question is whether Colorado can keep up against a depleted defense. My best guess is that they will score some points, but not enough to make it truly competitive.

Texas 38 – Colorado 28

Fiesta Bowl: Iowa State (-4) vs. Oregon

Late in the summer, when it looked like the Pac-12 season might be over before it began, I joked with the other writers on this blog that we should become an Iowa State blog for one season. I didn’t pick the Cyclones because I thought they were going to make the Big 12 Title Game and have one of their best seasons on record. I picked them because they felt like a somewhat anonymous, middle-of-the-road team that could use some extra attention. The joke became more poignant that I could have imagined since they will not only play Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, but Oregon only got a chance to play in the game because they stepped in for the sidelined Huskies in the Pac-12 Title Game. How fitting.

Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images

The part of the matchup that stands out most to me is the coaching. Both of these teams tend to come into games tactically and strategically well prepared. Oregon probably has a talent advantage, but Iowa State has played at a talent deficit most of the season and still beat teams like Texas and Oklahoma with execution and apt adjustments.

Oregon’s defense has improved as the season has progressed. The disruption Kayvon Thibodeaux causes along the line has been more and more impactful each game. He was arguably the biggest factor in the Ducks’ win over USC in the conference title game. Even so, the run defense has been a soft spot for Oregon. That could be trouble since Breece Hall is one of the most productive runners in the country. He totaled over 1400 yards and 19 TDs in 11 games for the Cyclones. QB Brock Purdy is a willing runner, as well. Iowa State’s diverse run attack can control the pace of the game and wear down the Ducks’ defense as it has done to several other teams through the season.

Iowa State’s defense has also steadily grown through the year. After surrendering 30+ points in each of the first three games, they have given up 30 only once more all year. Matt Campbell is on the short list for every big coaching vacancy and he deserves it. Iowa State routinely adjusts during games to take away whatever the opponent has done well early on. In the two games against Oklahoma, the Sooners have dominated early and Campbell has outcoached Lincoln Riley in the second half to get one win and nearly get another. Even if Oregon starts strong, Iowa State may shut them down later in the game.

Iowa State 28 – Oregon 23