Picking the Pac Week 7: We Made It

After all the cancellations, rescheduled games, and impromptu matchups, it’s a bit surprising that the Pac-12 Title Game is set to go off on schedule. No, the Pac-12 North winners will not be able to participate, but the game will feature the two teams generally picked to win their respective divisions at the start of the year. If Oregon manages to win the conference without having the best record in either of the Pac-12 divisions, well, that would be a very Oregon thing, wouldn’t it?

Oregon @ USC (-3)

The line for the conference title game is roughly the equivalent of the value USC gets for playing at home (although the statistical home field advantage without fans lacks much supporting data to this point). In other words, Vegas has considered Oregon’s really bad losses to Oregon State and Cal, it has considered USC’s narrow escapes against Arizona State, Arizona, and UCLA, and it has said the two teams are roughly equal on a neutral field. It’s not a crazy position to take.

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

If you zoom out far enough, there are some broad similarities between the Trojans and the Ducks. Both teams have very productive offenses that have piled up yards but turned it over too much in some games. Both teams have defenses with well-defined weaknesses despite immense talent. This game is ultimately a match-up of how those specific strengths and weaknesses line up with each other. Oregon’s defensive line has not performed up to standard, which has made life difficult for its secondary. Likewise, USC has struggled with dynamic run offenses, like the one Oregon employs. USC’s biggest problems came from running QBs like Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jaylin Daniels. Tyler Shough is mobile, but not explosive like those two. I’m also buying the improvement in Kedon Slovis through the season, especially as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London have emerged as superstar targets. It’s a fine line, but that’s enough for me to give this one to the Trojans.

USC 35 – Oregon 31

Washington State @ Utah (-10.5)

It’s one thing to schedule games the same weekend as the conference title game. It’s another, much weirder thing to schedule three games AFTER the conference title game is finished. Technically, this game could put the winner ahead of the other team in bowl game priority, which is a weird consideration for a 1-2 WSU team. Jayden de Laura looked pretty good in the first two games of the year, only for the schedule and Covid precautions to keep the team off the field for four of the past five weeks. Utah started late and has steadily rounded into form behind star running back Ty Jordan and a deep group of pass catchers. Rust has been a major factor for teams with substantial layoffs, so even though I think WSU could give Utah a good game under prime circumstances, I don’t see this one being close.

Utah 38 – WSU 23

Stanford @ UCLA (-7)

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Two teams who have overcome poor starts to the season have a chance to end conference play on a high note. The Cardinal have won their last three games by a combined 9 points. UCLA’s improving defense took a step back against the surging USC pass attack. UCLA has had more luck against run-first teams, which will serve them well against Stanford. Conversely, Stanford has been vulnerable against teams with big play threats on the ground. The Bruins have at least two of those with DTR and Demetric Felton. The seven-point line is in the right neighborhood and the game should be close to that margin.

UCLA 33 – Stanford 24

Arizona State (-7) @ Oregon State

The Sun Devils redeemed an uneven, bizarre season by emphatically ending the Kevin Sumlin era at Arizona last week. The Beavers, meanwhile, one of two Pac-12 teams (UCLA is the other) slated to play their seventh game in this seventh week. While it’s hard to assume that last week’s 70-point output is indicative of ASU’s true offensive talent, they should have the capacity to overpower a middling OSU defense. Even though it came in a loss, ASU’s defense held up well against UCLA’s run game, which means Jermar Jefferson will have to work hard for his yardage.

ASU 30 – OSU 21