30-Day Countdown: Day 15 - Husky Prop Bets

For someone who has never actually placed a legitimate bet on a sports event I’m still probably in the 99th percentile in following sports gambling. Therefore coming up with imaginary prop bets is right down my alley.

If you really want to play along then write in the comments how you would divide up your money if you were given a free $100 credit at the UWDP sportsbook and are obligated to put at least $10 on each wager.

For those unfamiliar with general sports betting terms, the minus or plus next to the number speaks to how much money you would win. For example if the choice you go with is (+200) then it means you would win $200 by betting $100 (get your $100 back plus another $200). Meanwhile a bet of (-150) would signify that you would have to bet $150 in order to win $100 (get your $150 back plus another $100 for $250 total).

My standard first bet placing an over/under on the number of freshmen who will not be redshirting is thrown out the window given the current rules around eligibility this year so we skip that and move on.

Last season the Huskies had 4 running backs with double digit carries and the split was 188 for Ahmed (50%), 117 for Newton (31%), 55 for McGrew (15%), and 16 for Pleasant (4%). Adding 2 and 3 together gets you pretty close to 1 and 4 combined. However, there are a few different dynamics this season. Newton goes into the year as the favorite to be the leader in carries but that’s by no means as clear cut as it seemed a year ago with Ahmed. There’s a new offensive coordinator who might be asking different things of the UW backs. There’s also another darkhorse redshirt freshman candidate poised to emerge just like Newton did a year ago.

If Newton were to get injured for any length of time or Davis were to get more non-goal line touches then the McGrew/Davis combo is set to cash in big here. However, if Newton really seizes the job or Donovan would rather give one guy 25+ carries per game or Pleasant has a bigger role then expected then that combination will come out on top.

Salvon Ahmed ended up the winner in this category after entering last season as the odds-on favorite (I put him at -120). The next 3 players I put the best odds for also are not returning (senior receivers Fuller, Baccellia, and McClatcher). That leaves just about a wide open slate and that’s reflected in the odds. I put Sean McGrew first as the running back who might have the best overall speed in the position group and who ripped off a 44-yarder with one of his just 55 carries. However, there’s also some strong contenders from the receiver position as 3 players beat McGrew’s longest play total last year who are in fact coming back: Terrell Bynum- 57 yards, Puka Nacua- 49 yards, and Jordan Chin- 48 yards.

If you choose to go with the field however you get the intriguing young receivers such as Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan as well as freshmen running backs Cam Davis, Sam Adams, and Jay’Veon Sunday among others.

If you go with the elder statesmen that means you get projected starters Cade Otton and Terrell Bynum plus you also get Ty Jones, Jordan Chin, and Sean McGrew coming out of the backfield. A vote for the underclassmen gives you the rest of the tight ends plus Puka Nacua, Marquis Spiker, Austin Osborne, and any of the freshmen and the rest of the running backs (minus Kamari Pleasant).

Among returners last year the upperclassmen held a 6-4 edge despite Ty Jones missing essentially all of the season with his injury while Otton, Bynum, and Chin all brought in 2 apiece. Meanwhile, Nacua had 2 in limited playing time, Newton had one against BYU, and Jack Westover caught a short one. If you want to go with the upside of the younger players then you have to give up a little more in your potential winnings with this line.

Traditionally, the Huskies have had one inside linebacker at the heart of the defense taking up the lion’s share of the tackles. Think Ben Burr-Kirven leading the nation a few years ago. But last year with some sub-standard ILB play the Huskies had Brandon Wellington finish 3rd on the team. When you add it all together the breakdown last year was CB- 219, ILB- 213, DL- 138, S- 127, OLB- 103.

Molden led the team from that nickel back position but the next two corners in tackles were Keith Taylor 4th and Trent McDuffie 7th. Meanwhile the ILBs had Wellington 3nd, Ulofoshio 5th, and Manu 7th.

Last season Washington finished with a +133 point differential over the course of 12 regular season games. That’s an average of just over +11 points per game. This season though the Huskies don’t get the filler or the Eastern Washington, Hawai’i, and BYU troika during which the Huskies rolled to easy wins in all of them. Just looking at conference play only they were +42 despite going 4-5 overall in those games. That’s an average of nearly +5 per game which is especially impressive given the losing conference record.

Now in 2020 it will be 7 conference games. If the Huskies were to finish with a similar point differential to conference play last year that would put them at about +35. In 2019 when they won the conference it was just an average +8 point differential in Pac-12 play despite the much better 8-2 record in those games. But a similar mark this season would put the Dawgs at +56. Use that information how you will.

My Bets

Using the criteria outlined above where I have to put $100 distributed across all 5 with at least $10 on each I’m going with this lineup.

Sean McGrew + Cam Davis Carries (+120), $20 to win $24

The Field (+500), $10 to win $50

Upperclassmen (+120), $20 to win $24

Inside Linebacker (-110), $10 to win $9

26-50 points (+125), $40 to win $50

If all of them were to hit I’d end up with about 2.5x my initial starting amount and still have a shot to double up even if my longshot bet on the field for longest TD doesn’t come through.