Oregon State Beavers Game Preview & How to Watch

The Essentials

Date: Thursday, 1/16/19

Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Radio: KOMO 1000

Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting line: Washington -4.5

Oregon State 2019-20 Statistics:

Record: 12-4 (2-2)

Points For per Game: 77.8 ppg (28th)

Points Against per Game: 67.5 ppg (126th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.0 (18th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 98.7 (140th)

Strength of Schedule: 216th overall

Oregon State Key Players:

C- Kylor Kelley, Sr. 7’0, 215: 11.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.1 bpg, 58.4% FG, 68.1% FT

The OSU big man is leading the nation in blocked shots but is pretty much a one trick pony. He’s an atrocious rebounder for his size and struggles on offense against bigs with good size/strength. Kelley had just 2 total blocks in his 2 games against UW last season mostly working against Noah Dickerson.

F- Tres Tinkle, Sr. 6’7, 225: 19.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 5.09% FG, 46.8% 3pt, 75.3% FT

Finally. Unless they meet in the Pac-12 tournament this will be the final career game against Tinkle for the Huskies and that’s good news. Tinkle is made in a lab to defeat a zone defense as an A+ shooter with size who can also pass the ball out of the high post. The coach’s son is averaging 22.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists against UW’s zone in 5 prior meetings and expect to see similar numbers again.

G- Alfred Hollins, Jr. 6’6, 205: 6.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 44.9% FG, 29.4% 3pt, 68.4% FT

Hollins still isn’t a very good shooter but he’s cut down on his turnovers this season which has made him at least not a liability as the 5th starter. He’s a solid rebounder from the wing and could definitely get 3-4 offensive boards to give Oregon State some second chance point opportunities.

G- Zach Reichle, Jr. 6’5, 205: 9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, 44.7% FG, 28.6% 3pt, 78.6% FT

Reichle is largely a 3-pt specialist for Oregon State but has been great when he takes the ball inside. He’s shooting 64% on 2-pointers and 91.3% on free throw attempts in conference play so far which speaks to an expanding role and aggressiveness level. UW’s zone is generally pretty good at preventing penetration so we’ll see if he’s able to continue his recent hot stretch of play.

G- Ethan Thompson, Jr. 6’5, 195: 16.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.7 apg, 50.6% FG, 37.5% 3pt, 78.8% FT

Ethan isn’t quite the shooter that his older brother was but is still capable of putting up stellar numbers. There’s not really anything he can’t do on the offensive side of the ball as he ranks in the top-400 nationally in almost every rate statistic available on KenPom.

2019-20 Oregon State Shot Chart

Synergy Sports

The Beavers have been good when they’re able to either get to the rim or pull up from just outside the paint for a short jumper. Luckily they have been pretty poor shooting straight on from the high post so expect the Huskies to dare them to make those dead center long 2’s until OSU proves they can.

The Outlook

With Tres Tinkle being granted a 5th year of eligibility it really feels like this Oregon State team has been the same forever. They rank 25th in minutes continuity despite finally losing Stephen Thompson Jr. to graduation after last year since almost everyone else came back. With 2 seniors and 3 juniors in the starting lineup and no more talented coach’s sons in the recruiting pipeline it certainly looks like the recent era of “dangerous on any given night but not quite an NCAA team” Oregon State squads is coming to a close.

This is the only time the Huskies play the Beavers this season and that’s good for the hearts of Husky fans. Washington and Oregon State have played a number of barn burners over the last few years as 3 of the last 5 meetings have gone into OT (including one in 2OT) as well as one that ended by a final margin of 2 points.

It’s hard to find a weakness in Oregon State’s offensive game. They rank in the top 85 nationally in 2pt%, 3pt%, FT%, and turnover rate. They get inside, draw a ton of fouls, make their foul shots, and have at least two quality shooters on the outside playing in most lineups at all times to kick it out to. The one glaring weakness is that they aren’t a great offensive rebounding team which seems odd since they have a ton of size at the guard spots. But Kylor Kelley is about the same level of rebounder as Sam Timmins which explains a lot.

Normally you can gain an advantage on Oregon State because of their fairly mediocre defense. Kylor Kelley blocks a lot of shots around the rim but other than that the Beavers don’t really do much to challenge you on that end of the floor. They’re mediocre to bad at forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding so if the Huskies play well (somehow) in those areas there’s a chance for them to gain a possession advantage.

Coach Wayne Tinkle is one of the most conservative coaches in the country in terms of getting his guys in foul trouble. The second a player picks up their 2nd foul that guy is glued to the bench until halftime. The one thing that could really go Washington’s way in this one is if the Tres Tinkle or Ethan Thompson pick up 2 quick fouls because while Oregon State plays a lot of guys, they have a pretty huge drop off from their stars to the rest of the rotation.

The Washington offense was quite frankly abysmal in the Bay Area road trip without Quade Green. You’d like to say that Isaiah Stewart having his two worst games of the season back to back was a bit of a fluke but you can expect that OSU will have watched the tape and will instantly double or triple team Stewart the second he touches it. Naz Carter has had some huge games against OSU so maybe he finally breaks out for a 25 point game to carry the Husky offense. The Dawgs simply can’t get by if they are both unable to take care of the ball or make shots from the perimeter and it’s hard to expect Washington to do both without Quade until we see it happen. If the Huskies are able to pull it out it’s likely going to be a low scoring affair where the crowd inspires the defense to do just enough.

Prediction

Washington Huskies- 59, Oregon State Beavers- 67

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