FanPost

Looking Ahead

Looking forward to next year one of the overriding questions involves improvement and where the Huskies need to improve in order to actually contend for a National Championship. The defense has been remarkably consistent in its statistical performance and rating over the past two years but that hasn't been true for the offense. Using FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) ratings we can see that in 2017 Washington ranked 11th nationally but in 2018 fell all the way to 35th with OTD and OBC he only statistics that were better than 2017.

The problem with this significant drop off is the fact that the Huskies had the bulk of their offense returning losing only Dante Pettis and Will Dissly as receivers. One could argue that the schedule was more difficult with Auburn replacing Rutgers on the schedule and BYU replacing Fresno State but this would not, in itself, account for such a steep drop. Since personnel remained close to the same the one major change was the switch to Bush Hamdan as OC when Smith left for Oregon State.

This is not to lay the blame solely at Hamdan's feet as there are a lot of moving parts to the offense but when Coach Petersen said that they would have to reevaluate everything the most logical place to start seems to be with the offense. Statistics, especially advanced statistics, might be for losers but the drop off seems to match the eye test in some ways. The year the Huskies went to the playoffs they were ranked 8th on this metric. If they can maintain their defensive efficiency and get to a top ten on offense, may be, just maybe they might have a shot at a Natty.

Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced. Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position. First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down. Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more. Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.

Rk


W-L

OFEI

OE

Rk

ODS

Rk

OAY

Rk

OFD

Rk

OTD

Rk

OTF

Rk

OBC

Rk

OTO

Rk

11

U W

9-3

3.05

3.07

10

.521

3

.563

13

.778

17

.393

9

.505

11

.650

64

.077

15

2017

35

U W

9-4

2.59

2.59

32

.400

34

.539

23

.785

14

.300

40

.382

59

.746

6

.100

49

2018

<!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Times; panose-1:2 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-alt:"Times Roman"; mso-font-charset:77; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-format:other; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} @font-face {font-family:Cambria; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->

<!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Times; panose-1:2 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-alt:"Times Roman"; mso-font-charset:77; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-format:other; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} @font-face {font-family:Cambria; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->