Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors Open Thread

The Essentials

Date: Monday, 12/23/19

Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN2

Radio: KOMO 1000

Streaming: Espn.com/watch

Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Betting line: Washington -6.5

Hawai’i 2019-20 Statistics:

Record: 8-3 (1-0 against Non-D1 schools)

Points For per Game: 73.7 ppg (110th)

Points Against per Game: 71.1 ppg (200th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 100.6 (169th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (151st)

Strength of Schedule: 274th overall

Hawai’i Key Players:

C- Dawson Carper, So. 7’0, 250: 6.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 68.0% FG, 47.1% FT

Carper is one of two 7-footers on the Hawai’i roster and the one that plays the most although he has real foul trouble issues which keep from playing even 20 minutes per game. He’s 0/2 on shots outside the paint this season. Think a slightly more polished Sam Timmins. Carper can rebound and can dunk or hit a short hook shot but if you make him do anything else on the floor then he really struggles. He’s been a good post defender this season but obviously hasn’t gone against anyone like Isaiah Stewart.

F- Zigmars Raimo, Sr. 6’9, 225: 9.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.4 apg, 49.3% FG, 20.0% 3pt, 75.0% FT

Hawai’i has some fantastic names on this roster. Raimo is essentially a point forward and he could cause some havoc getting the ball in the high post and finding cutters sneaking on the baseline when Washington goes zone. When he doesn’t pass the ball he prefers to bully his way to the hoop and when the Huskies are in man he could cause some problems for Hameir Wright or Jaden McDaniels with his physicality.

G- Samuta Avea, Jr. 6’6, 195: 11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 41.1% FG, 41.1% 3pt, 84.2% FT

Avea does almost all of his work on catch and shoot 3’s and in transition where he has good size as a plus shooter. The Huskies will have to make sure they don’t lose track of him when they are in zone as he’s shooting 56% on unguarded 3-pointers.

G- Eddie Stansberry, Sr. 6’3, 190: 18.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 45.4% FG, 41.1% 3pt, 88.1% FT

Just like Terrell Brown for Seattle last week, Stansberry is a star scorer as a JUCO transfer. He’s not nearly as ball dominant as Brown was but has been incredibly efficient and will play almost 40 minutes against Washington with only 1-2 short breaks. He can do it all. Stansberry ranks in the 80th percentile or better on spot up attempts, transitions hosts, off screens, as the P&R ball handler, and cutting to the basket. Funny enough he’s shooting 45% on 3’s when guarded and 27% when not so it may not be the worst strategy in the world to give him some space in the zone on catch and shoot opportunities (although that’s likely playing with fire). He’s also 6/30 on 3’s on the left side of the court and 26/44 on the right side so they need to know the scouting report of where it’s ok to leave him.

G- Drew Buggs, Jr. 6’3, 195: 10.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 5.6 apg, 40.0% FG, 32.4% 3pt, 71.4% FT

With a name like Drew Buggs at point guard you’d expect him to be 5’8 but he has some decent size. He’s the team leader in assists but is also extremely turnover prone and has five games this year with 4+ give aways so Washington should be able to take advantage there. He’s also not a great scorer and has only made more than one 3-pointer in a game twice this season.

2019-20 Hawai’i Shot Chart

Synergy Sports

Hawai’i is reasonably well balanced in terms of where their shot attempts come from but it’s clear that they’re at their best taking 3’s or getting it to the rim. They like to run a variety of different cuts to the rim and take advantage of ball movement to get the defense off balance before finding the one open guy leading to an easy layup.

The Outlook

The one negative to Washington’s non-conference schedule was that it didn’t include a true road game. Well that’s exactly what the Huskies find themselves in after Hawai’i upset UTEP in their first game at the Diamond Head Classic. Last season in this same event the Rainbow Warriors faced Colorado in the second round and beat them in overtime and this Hawai’i team is likely better than that one so Washington has to take this game seriously.

Hawai’i comes into this game 38th in the country in 3-pt percentage at 37.6% but they aren’t overly reliant on that shot like Ball State was last night. The Rainbow Warriors rank toward the middle of the pack nationally in 3-pt attempts and really only have four players in the 10-man rotation who average more than one attempt per game.

The player to watch all night for Hawai’i will be Eddie Stansberry who has scored 20+ points in 7 of their 10 games so far this season. He managed just 7 in what was his worst shooting game since the season opener but Hawai’i was still able to win against a solid UTEP team so they’re more than just a one man show.

On the defensive end Hawai’i has managed to funnel opponents into the paint where they actually do a very good job contesting shots. They have good size on their guards and a stable of 4 big men between 6’9 and 7’0 who are generally taller than their opposition. Kofi Cockburn for Illinois is the only post player they’ve seen who is nearly as good as Isaiah Stewart and he put up 15 points and 11 rebounds but required 15 shot attempts to get there. If Stewart can’t convert at a better than 1:1 ratio of points to shot attempts then Hawai’i can claim they won that matchup.

Teams have shot extremely well against Hawai’i from deep but they’re 9th in the country at limiting opposing 3-point attempts due to their aggressive close outs. I’d expect to see plenty of Jaden McDaniels and Naz Carter putting up pump fakes then driving for wide open floaters or midrange jumpers. I’d prefer if they took those all the way to the rim to try to get fouled but you can’t always get what you want.

These teams have played one common opponent and Hawai’i lost at home by 6 to South Dakota who the Huskies beat by 20. The Rainbow Warriors have also lost by 25 on the road to Oregon and 13 on the road to Illinois which are the only two teams they’ve faced that are in the same class as Washington. This will be the most hostile arena that Washington has played in so far this season and that South Dakota game is the lone home loss so far for Hawai’i. But Washington’s offense has really started to click over the last 4 games and I just don’t think Hawai’i quite has the firepower to keep up.

Prediction

Washington Huskies- 82, Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors-70

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