Date: Monday, 12/2/19
Tip-Off Time: 7:30 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: KOMO 1000
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting line: Washington -12
South Dakota Coyotes 2019-20 Statistics:
Points For per Game: 76.1 ppg (66th)
Points Against per Game: 72.5 ppg (227th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.7 (60th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (256th)
Strength of Schedule: 296th overall
South Dakota Key Players:
C- Tyler Hagedorn, Sr. 6’10, 230: 18.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 63.4% FG, 75% 3pt, 85.3% FT
The big man from Nebraska has been a dominant star for South Dakota and currently leads the country in 3-pt% having made 18 of 24 shots from deep including 11/12 from straight away. That’s good for an empty gym let alone in game situations even if it’s a small sample size. After a ridiculous stretch where he made 11 in a row over 2 games he’s made 3/7 in the past 4 which is closer to his career numbers. Hagedorn is also the only rotation player taller than 6’7 for USD and their best rim protector and defender.
F- Stanley Umude, Jr. 6’6, 210: 16.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42.9% FG, 46.2% 3pt, 90.6% FT
Umude is the best shot blocker on South Dakota as well as a knock down shooter. He has struggled when taking the ball to the rim and settles for long 2’s quite a bit which the Huskies will attempt to encourage. But if he gets a clean look at the basket or from the free throw line then it’s probably going in.
G- Tyler Peterson, Sr. 6’4, 210: 8.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 57.8% FG, 80.0% FT
Peterson was a career 25% 3-pt shooter on over 200 attempts and so this year they told him to please stop taking them. He averaged more than 2 attempts per game in his first 3 years and just 3 total in 8 games this season. He’s shooting 64% on shots in the paint so he’s a complete non-entity as a scorer if he gets the ball anywhere else on the floor. Think a better passing Carlos Johnson.
G- Cody Kelley, Sr. 5’11, 190: 10.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 52.0% FG, 47.1% 3pt, 81.3% FT
Kelley transferred in from Wyoming last season and really hit his stride in conference play where he shot nearly 46% from deep and has kept up that hot shooting so far this year. Over 2⁄3 of his shots have come from behind the arc so the mighty mouse sniper isn’t going to do much other than bomb it from deep.
G- Triston Simpson, Sr. 6’2, 185: 12.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 52.8% FG, 45.5% 3pt, 69.2% FT
Simpson missed USD’s last game due to injury and it’s unclear whether he’s going to recover quickly enough to appear tonight. If he can’t go then the Coyotes will be missing their best player at driving to the rim as he leads the team in free throw rate. Every shot for Simpson has been either in the paint, a long 2-pointer, and from behind the arc.
2019-20 South Dakota Shot Chart
Ho-lee crap. It doesn’t get much better than that. This South Dakota team takes a lotof their shots from behind the 3-point line and in the paint and they’re incredibly efficient all over the floor. Expect a lot of back cuts and layup attempts in transition and not a lot of challenging the Washington rim protectors 1v1 around the basket. They’ve struggled when they’ve been forced to take midrange shots so expect the Huskies to extend their zone out and force the Coyotes to have to drive the ball if they want to score.
This is the kind of game that would make me incredibly nervous if I were Coach Hopkins. Then again it makes me nervous even though I’m me. South Dakota is a veteran team (9th in the country in experience with 5 upperclassmen starters) that leads the country in 3-pt shooting. Even with Washington’s major size and athleticism advantage the great equalizer is the 3-point shot.
And it isn’t as if Washington’s strength has been defending the arc. Teams are shooting 38.4% from deep against the Huskies which ranks 312th in the nation. You can expect that the Coyotes will be able to find a little bit of daylight and they start 4 players who are currently shooting at least 45% from deep. However, Trenton Simpson may not be able to go in this one with an injury and if he doesn’t this isn’t a very deep squad.
The other 5 non-starters that have appeared in a game so far for South Dakota are combining to shoot 25% from deep so if Simpson doesn’t go and/or Washington can get the main contributors into foul trouble then the offensive potency for USD drops off in a hurry. And it isn’t crazy to think they have issues with fouls. This is a very undersized Coyotes team that will give up 4+ inches at 3 positions at all times against Washington. The zone is always vulnerable to giving up offensive rebounds but the Huskies should be able to create plenty of their own second chances on the offensive end.
They should also have an advantage in turnovers as South Dakota is 2nd to last in the country in forcing turnovers on defense. They aren’t very aggressive on that end of the floor and they don’t force other teams into mistakes. If there’s any game when the Husky offense is able to keep themselves under double digit turnovers it should be this one.
If you’re looking for another sign of optimism it’s that the Coyotes have played an extremely weak schedule. They’ve played only one other team in the top-150 at KenPom and lost by 19 while scoring just 56 points. However, that one game was against Arkansas on the road who rank 11th in defensive efficiency. And they do have a trio of wins against top-200 teams away from home although a loss at #299 Northern Arizona on Saturday night is a bit of a head scratcher.
This will be the 3rd road game in 5 days for South Dakota while Washington will have had a full 8 days off. If the Coyotes’ legs are tired and their 3-pt shot isn’t falling then they have absolutely no shot. But if they continue to shoot 45%+ from deep like they have so far this season then we may see a shoot out where Washington bludgeons them inside but USD is able to keep it close. I’m going to somewhat split the difference with my prediction as the Dawgs pull away later than they’d like. Washington had better be ready for a fight.
Washington Huskies- 77, South Dakota Coyotes- 71
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