Date: Tuesday, 12/17/19
Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: KOMO 1000
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting line: Washington -16
Seattle Redhawks 2019-20 Statistics:
Record: 6-5 (2-0 against non-D1 schools)
Points For per Game: 66.2 ppg (239th)
Points Against per Game: 70.1 ppg (182nd)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 96.2 (258th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (150th)
Strength of Schedule: 281st overall
Seattle Key Players:
C- Myles Carter, Sr. 6’9, 230: 11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 51.9% FG, 16.7% 3pt, 73.2% FT
After hardly getting on the court his first two seasons at Seton Hall, Carter has had a lot more success at Seattle and is an above average rebounder and shot blocker. When he has the ball however he’s a bit of a black hole and while he can can draw fouls he often struggles to get the ball in the basket.
F- Mattia Da Campo, Sr. 6’7, 210: 4.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 48.4% FG, 28.6% 3pt, 66.7% FT
The Italian small forward has seen an increase in playing time as an upperclassman but is almost a complete non-entity on offense taking less than 10% of his teams’ shots while on the floor. Last season Da Campo was one of the better offensive rebounders in the country from a per minute perspective but he hasn’t been nearly as successful this year.
G- Delante Jones, Sr. 6’5, 195: 8.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 apg, 33.0% FG, 33.% 3pt, 72.2% FT
Jones transferred in from American after his sophomore season and so far is seeing a career low minutes and points per game as a senior. He’s been in Hameir Wright territory on his 2-pointers making just 27.6% of his attempts against D1 opponents. His assist and turnover rates are also down this year suggesting he just doesn’t have the ball in his hands as much as he’s used to and Jones isn’t handling it well.
G- Morgan Means, Sr. 6’3, 175: 9.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 33.7% FG, 28.6% 3pt, 84.0% FT
Means was a co-star with Brown (listed below) last season but this year he has had to adjust to being second fiddle. In Seattle’s only 2 games against top-100 competition he is just 1 for 10 from 3-point range and if he were to hit at his career rate it would do wonders for the Redhawks offense.
G- Terrell Brown, Jr. 6’1, 175: 20.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.5 apg, 44.3% FG, 35.0% 3pt, 74.1% FT
Brown was a star at Garfield in high school but spent a year at Shoreline CC where he scored 30+ points per game and led the league in steals. He put up a fantastic first season with Seattle last year as a sophomore but is putting up insane numbers in 2019. Brown is taking a ridiculous 37% of his teams’ shots (12th in the nation) and yet has extremely impressive assist and turnover rates. He’s only hitting on 41% of his 2-point attempts which is keeping his efficiency down and preventing him from being among the truly elite in the nation.
2019-20 Seattle Shot Chart
The Redhawks are not exactly a great shooting team particularly from the wings which is normally the most open part of the Washington zone beyond the arc. It is interesting to see that they take a lot of jumpers from the free throw line over to the elbow which is the most open part inside the arc. Terrell Brown has taken almost all of those shots and if he is able to get in a rhythm from there then he has the chance to heat up and consistently burn the Huskies.
Washington played Mount St. Mary’s earlier this season which ranked 6th in minutes continuity but now they go up against the team leading the nation in that category. 8 of the 10 players receiving at least 10% of the team’s minutes this season are upperclassmen and only one of them didn’t play for Seattle last season. The combination of age and experience makes this team an even older version of last year’s Huskies.
Fortunately for Washington the talent on the Seattle roster isn’t nearly on that level even if the the total career minutes is in the same ballpark. Everything for Seattle revolves around Garfield alum Terrell Brown at the moment. In Seattle’s 6 wins Brown is averaging 17.7 points on 14.8 shot attempts with 5.8 assists and 3 turnovers. In their 5 losses he’s averaging 22.8 points on 24.8 shot attempts with 2.3 assists and 2.6 TOs. It’s not a stretch to say that the Redhawks play better when Brown is able to get his teammates more involved and doesn’t resort to 1 on 1 hero ball. I’m sure Brown would argue that he only had to step up because his teammates weren’t able to get open against higher level competition but we’ll see.
The end result of all of that is that Seattle ranks 300th or worse in field goal % on both 2-pointers and 3-pointers. The only reason they’re able to get any kind of wins at all with putrid shooting percentages like that is because they don’t turn the ball over. The Redhawks are 12th nationally in turnover % on offense and 4th on non-steal turnovers meaning they almost never travel, commit offensive fouls, or throw the ball away. Washington however is very prone to doing all of those things (ranked 303rd) and so if Seattle is going to stay in this game it’s likely because they were able to build up a possession advantage in much the way that Gonzaga was able to. It should be noted however that Seattle’s ranked 334th in getting their opponents to turn the ball over on non-steals so it’s very much a battle of strengths and a battle of weaknesses when it comes to turnovers.
Seattle has already gotten to play against the zone once this season as they (for some reason) traveled to Syracuse to play in the Carrier Dome and were beaten by 22 points. You could either argue that this helped them prepare for Washington or that it shows they are incapable of mounting much of an effort against it. I’m more inclined to believe that it was the latter although Seattle lost that game more because of its defense which gave up a season high 89 points than because it couldn’t solve the zone.
The Redhawks certainly have enough talent to keep themselves in the game into the second half but at the end of the day there’s no indication that Seattle is good enough to realistically challenge Washington. They have only 4 wins of more than 4 points and they came over #335 Idaho, #348 Incarnate Word, D3 Pacific Lutheran, and D3 Pacific OR all at home. If the Huskies don’t win by double digits it’s a bad sign.
Washington Huskies- 73, Seattle Redhawks- 54
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