Oregon State Beavers Game Preview/Open Thread

The Essentials

Date: Thursday, 3/1/18

Tip-Off Time: 8:00pm PST

TV: ESPN2

Radio: KOMO 1000

Streaming: Espn.com/watch

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington -3.5

Oregon State 2017-18 Statistics:

Record: 14-14 (6-10)

Points For per Game: 73.3 ppg (174th)

Points Against per Game: 70.6 ppg (112th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 108.6 (120th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (101st)

Strength of Schedule: 92nd

Oregon State Key Players:

C- Drew Eubanks, Jr. 6’10, 250: 13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 62.7% FG, 69.3% FT

Conference-Only Percentages: 59% 2pt (8th), 62.7% FT

F- Tres Tinkle, So. 6’8, 220: 17.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.8 apg, 47.5% FG, 32.8% 3pt, 85.3% FT

Conference-Only Percentages: 54.1% 2pt (21st), 31% 3pt, 86.4% FT (5th)

F- Alfred Hollins, Fr. 6’6, 195: 6.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 52.8% FG, 38.7% 3pt, 65% FT

Conference-Only Percentages: 56.6% 2pt, 37.5% 3pt, 69.2% FT

G- Ethan Thompson, Fr. 6’5, 290: 9.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.3 apg, 37.4% FG, 30% 3pt, 71.8% FT

Conference-Only Percentages: 39% 2pt, 30.6% 3pt, 69.6% FT

G- Stephen Thompson, Jr. 6’4, 190: 15.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 45.9% FG, 35.4% 3pt, 66.7% FT

Conference-Only Percentages: 50.4% 2pt, 38.2% 3pt (15th), 61% FT

The Outlook

Husky fans don’t need a reminder of what happened the last time these two teams squared off (but I’m giving you one anyways). Washington blew a 13 point lead in the final 10 minutes and proceeded to lose (in 2OT) on a buzzer beating 3-pointer by Stephen Thompson in Corvallis for the second time in 3 years.

The biggest question for this game is whether Oregon State discovered a secret formula in the last 20 minutes of the previous game (10 of regulation plus 10 of OT) or if they got lucky. Because The Beavers scored 54 points in the first 30 minutes (1.8 per minute) and then 43 points in the final 20 (2.15 per minute).

On the one hand, Oregon State did make a living towards the end by getting the ball to Tres Tinkle inside where Washington appeared helpless to stop him and he scored much the same way that Reid Travis did in the demolition at Stanford. At the same time, Oregon State hit 5 consecutive deep 3-pointers in 4 minutes at the end of the game to have a shot to force overtime. The Huskies can live with Tinkle getting his points as long as the Beavers don’t get another torrid stretch from outside.

While examining the most recent game is good practice I have a feeling that this game will have nothing to do with Washington. Here’s a stat for you. Oregon State is 0-8 in true road games including losses to #213 Kent State and #237 Cal. If you instead set the bar at games that weren’t played either in Corvallis or Portland they are 1-10 with the lone victory coming against #318 Marist (it’s in Poughkeepsie, New York in case you were wondering). As bad as the Huskies have looked on the road at times the Beavers have been absolutely atrocious.

If you want some other lopsided stats, here they are. KenPom uses an A, B, neither system rather than quadrants like the selection committee. UW is 2-5 in A games, 3-4 in B games and 14-1 in neither games with the only loss coming in the home game against Stanford. Both of the games this week are “neither” games.

I’m not convinced that Oregon State’s play late in their last match was sustainable and I’m certainly not convinced that they can pull off a similar feat on the road. Every game is must-win from here on out for the Huskies. The absolute best that the Beavers can do is get to 8th place in the conference and there’s an 85% chance they remain in 10th. Motivation is clearly on UW’s side so as long as they can handle the pressure then they should come out on top here.

Prediction

Washington Huskies- 78, Oregon State Beavers- 72

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