Seattle Redhawks Game Preview/Open Thread

The Essentials

Date: Sunday, 12/9/18

Tip-Off Time: 6:00 pm PT

TV: Pac-12 Networks

Streaming: Pac-12.com/live

Radio: KOMO 1000 AM/97.7 FM and TuneIn

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington -13

Seattle U 2018-19 Statistics:

Record: 9-2

Points For per Game: 79.7 (54th)

Points Against per Game: 69.9 (122nd)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 102.0 (192nd)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (175th)

Strength of Schedule: -9.65 (345th)

Seattle U Key Players:

F- Myles Carter, Jr. 6’9, 230: 14.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 3.1 bpg, 60.6% FG, 50.0% FT

The Seton Hall transfer has had a great start to his career at Seattle U after never making the rotation back in Newark. He’s above average at everything you want for your big man. He’s an elite rim protector, good rebounder, and an effective low post scorer who’s adept at drawing fouls. Carter defending Dickerson will be the matchup of the night.

F- Matej Kavas, Jr. 6’8, 200: 15.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.9 apg, 44.4% FG, 42.0% 3pt, 87.9% FT

The sharpshooting Slovenian is one of the best shooters in the country as last season he was 12th nationally in 3pt % at an astounding 47.3%. He’s only slightly behind that pace so far this season. But he isn’t just a one trick pony since only about 55-60% of his shots come from behind the arc and is comfortable taking the ball inside.

G- Delante Jones, Jr. 6’5, 195: 13.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg, 45.1% FG, 31.3% 3pt, 65% FT

Jones transferred from American University and while his counting stats look good his efficiency stats are all below average. The Huskies will be happy if Jones ends up taking the most shots in this game.

G- Morgan Means, Jr. 6’3, 175: 15.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.7 apg, 44.2% FG, 46.4% 3pt, 84.8% FT

Means was a 33% 3pt shooter coming into the year so although his torrid start from beyond the arc is on a good number of attempts I’m not sure how sustainable it really is. Almost all of his attempts have been catch and shoot with no dribbles so if Washington doesn’t give him space then he likely can’t have the same impact.

G- Terrell Brown, So. 6’1, 175: 11.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 5.6 apg, 47.9% FG, 16.7% 3pt, 63.3% FT

Brown has been phenomenal in his first playing time for the Redhawks as he sports a 4/1 A/TO ratio while averaging almost 6 assists per game. The problem is that he isn’t a shooter but he makes up for that by being an undersized bully in the paint and driving to either kick to his phenomenal shooting teammates or take the ball inside and get fouled

2018-19 Seattle Shot Chart

The Huskies may be able to find an advantage by forcing a foul line midrange jumper which could trap Seattle as it’s an area where they aren’t very efficient.

Synergy Sports

The Outlook

The Redhawks are an extremely interesting team from a statistical perspective. They have a win over Washington State, albeit without their star Robert Franks, so Washington can’t take them lightly. Seattle U has moved up 75 spots in the KenPom rankings since the preseason and have a sterling 9-2 record. But those wins are mostly empty calories. They have the 345th ranked strength of schedule in the country thus far and games at Stanford (22 point loss) and vs. Washington State (9 point win) are the only ones they’ve played against top-200 opponents.

That sub-par competition flavors the rest of their offensive/defensive stats but there are several other unique elements to Seattle. They’re 352nd in percentage of bench minutes which means that their starting 5 plays a ton and they only go with a 7 man rotation. If Washington can get them in foul trouble they don’t have the depth to stick around.

On offense the Redhawks are one of the best 3-pt shooting teams in the country and shoot 39% as a team. But despite that they don’t rely entirely on the long ball and keep good balance between their number of shots inside and outside the arc. They’re also among the national leaders in not turning the ball over which should be an interesting test against the Husky zone which thrives at getting steals and creating havoc.

Seattle’s strength on defense has been rim prevention as they’re 12th in the country with opponents shooting just 42% on 2-pt shots. Myles Carter is a great shot blocker and Seattle’s best chance is if he can best Noah Dickerson in their matchup. Their biggest defensive weakness though is the tendency to give up wide open shots in the corners. Opponents are shooting 17 of 32 on corner 3’s against Seattle so if Jaylen Nowell, Dominic Green, and Matisse Thybulle can make their wide open corner 3’s then those looks should be there.

The Huskies are coming off their best 2nd half of the season despite ultimately coming up just short at #1 Gonzaga. If Washington can keep up that momentum then they should be able to pull away from Seattle quite easily. However, if they feel discouraged by the loss and come out flat then the Redhawks are good enough to give UW a scare. I expect it to be somewhat in between with a 5 point game at the half before the Huskies open up the lead double digits in the 2nd period.

Prediction

Washington Huskies- 77, Seattle Redhawks- 67

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