Date: Friday, 12/21/18
Tip-Off Time: 6:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: KOMO 1000 AM/97.7 FM and TuneIn
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting Line: Washington -16
Sacramento State 2018-19 Statistics:
Record: 6-2 (3-2 against D1 teams)
Points For per Game: 71.6 (202nd)
Points Against per Game: 71.2 (143rd)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 97.0 (289th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (151st)
Strength of Schedule: -4.07 (297th)
Sacramento State Key Players:
The raw stats listed include three games Sacramento State has played against non-D1 competition. Most of the description uses stats that discount those games.
F-Joshua Patton, Jr. 6’8, 225: 14.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 65.7% FG, 51.8% FT
Patton is a bull in a china shop and it should be fun to watch him go against Noah Dickerson as they are 14th and 5th respectively in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He’s one of only 4 players in the country to have more free throw attempts than field goal attempts in D-1 games.
F- Bryce Fowler, So. 6’6, 195: 7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 40% FG, 29.4% 3pt, 36.4% FT
Fowler shot nearly 40% on 3-pointers last year so he is capable of getting hot from outside. And he’s been abysmal on 2-point shots against D1 competition as he’s just 7 for 23 inside the arc.
G- Osi Nwachukwu, Jr. 6’5, 195: 7.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 43.9% FG, 07.7% 3pt, 79.2% FT
Given that he’s 1 for 13 on 3-pointers so far this season you can bet the Huskies will be just fine encouraging him to shoot it from outside.
G- Izayah Mauriohooho-le’afa, Jr. 6’2, 200: 9.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 34.6% FG, 28% 3pt, 61.5% FT
I’m sure the announcers took a first look at Sacramento State’s roster, got to Izayah, and said “shit”. He leads the team in steals which is saying for one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers.
G- Marcus Graves, Sr. 6’0, 188: 15.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 6.0 apg, 43.5% FG, 31.6% 3pt, 79.3% FT
Graves’ statistics look extremely impressive but there is a little bit of feasting on non-D1 opponents in there. Against D1 teams he’s shooting just 15.4% from the 3-pt line and averaging more than 4 turnovers per game. You can expect that Matisse Thybulle will get his money’s worth of steals when in Graves’ vicinity.
2018-19 Sacramento State Shot Chart
The Hornets really struggle making 3’s from the wing and at the free throw line which are probably the 2 most open areas against the UW zone. If they can get things at the rim going consistently with Joshua Patton then they could have some success.
Sacramento State is a weird team to scout because they’ve played just 5 games against D1 competition. With the fires in California they had 2 games postponed plus 3 non-D1 games scheduled which means they didn’t play a D1 game until almost Thanksgiving.
This an opponent that Washington should be able to handle easily but there are definitely flashing red lights of concern. The Hornets are 6th in the country by forcing a steal every 7.5 possessions. If David Crisp, Jaylen Nowell, and Noah Dickerson get sloppy then there’s a good chance it will lead to Sac State fastbreak opportunities.
And they’re badly going to need transition looks because I expect it to be difficult for the Hornets to score when UW’s defense is set. They have decent length at the guard spots but no one on the team is taller than 6’8. Joshua Patton is a legitimate low post scorer but if the Huskies get him in early foul trouble then I don’t know where Sacramento State’s offense comes from.
They are 8th in the country in frequency of 2-point attempts and 350th in frequency of 3-point attempts. They absolutely don’t want to shoot the ball. I expect Washington to take a step back and play essentially inside the 3-point line and dare the Hornets to beat them from outside. Either Sac State tries that and UW is letting a team shooting just 27% on 3-point attempts take 3-pointers or Sac State tries to jam things inside against a condensed zone with long arms swarming everywhere.
This appears to be a perfect matchup for Washington to get back on track, get the loss to Virginia Tech out of their system, and prepare for Pac-12 play. It’s a shame that the injuries to Elijah Hardy and Bryan Penn-Johnson are keeping them out right now because otherwise this would seemingly be a good chance for them to get some playing time before conference play starts.
Washington Huskies- 75, Sacramento State Hornets- 52
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