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Season in Review: Prop Bets

Who cashed in on my fictional prop bets from the pre-season?

NCAA Football: Fiesta Bowl-Penn State vs Washington Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

During the pre-season I made up a number of prop bets relating to how the Husky season would turn out. You can find the original article here. I’m here to look back at those bets and see how I did (spoiler alert: not well).

How many scholarship true freshmen will play this season for the Huskies?

Over 4.5: -120 (53% of votes)

Under 4.5: +110 (47%)

Pre-Season analysis: In 2016, 4 of 19 true freshmen saw the playing field so I set the over/under at 4.5. The 7 I listed as most likely to play were: RB Salvon Ahmed, TE Hunter Bryant, WR Ty Jones, WR Terrell Bynum, P Joel Whitford, CB Elijah Molden, and S Brandon McKinney.

Final Verdict: This one went way over so the slight majority won. All of the above except Terrell Bynum burned their redshirt. We’ll see moving forward if having a more talented recruiting class means we’ll continue to see more true freshmen playing or if specific injury/depth concerns led to this year’s increase.

Will Myles Gaskin have at least double the rushing attempts of Lavon Coleman?

Yes: Even (19% of votes)

No: Even (81%)

Pre-Season analysis: I noted that it only would’ve taken Lavon Coleman stealing 3 carries away from Gaskin to prevent Gaskin from doubling up Coleman in total carries in 2016. So the question is whether Coleman would take on a slightly larger role in his senior year or if Gaskin would supplant him.

Final Verdict: The yes prevailed here as Gaskin finished with 222 carries and Coleman just 89. The house won big here as the vast majority thought it would be closer. The injury to Coleman in the Apple Cup may have factored into this one as he had just 2 carries in that game before leaving with an ankle sprain and just 4 in the Fiesta Bowl. That was his lowest 2-game total of the season. Even if he stayed healthy though it seemed like the coaching staff had a lot more faith in Myles this season. (Fun side note: Lavon Coleman finished his Husky career with exactly 2000 rushing yards).

Who will lead the UW Huskies in passer rating in 2017?

Jake Browning: 8 to 1 (46% of votes)

K.J Carta-Samuels: 2 to 1 (19%)

Daniel Bridge-Gadd: 4 to 1 (1%)

Dante Pettis: 2 to 1 (23%)

Someone Else: 10 to 1 (10%)

Pre-Season analysis: The answer to this one seemed like it would go to either the backup who would only throw a small number of passes or the trick play QB which was Dante Pettis in 2016.

Final Verdict: This one was a surprise finish. Dante Pettis had a college passer rating of 402.4 after completing a 36 yard throw off of a double pass during the season. But Coach Pete knew Penn State would be expecting a throw from Dante and so let Andre Baccelia throw a 52-yard completion in the Fiesta Bowl. So “Someone Else” cashes in at 10 to 1.

How many games will the Huskies win by 28 points or more next season?

Over 5.5: -140 (61% of votes)

Under 5.5: +130 (39%)

Pre-Season analysis: Washington cleared this hurdle by a pretty sizable margin in 2016 with 8 victories of 28 or more and 10 by 24 or more. However, several of those 28+ victories came at home and would turn into road games while several more barely cleared that barrier. I decided to be safe and put the O/U at 5.5 with a lean towards the over.

Final Verdict: This one was pretty brutal on anyone who took the over. Washington won games by 56, 35, 35, 32, and 31 points this year. And then beat Colorado by 27 and Washington State by 27. Tristan Vizcaino missed an extra point and a pair of field goals in the rain in Boulder. Had any of those 3 split the uprights the over would’ve been a winner. Good thing no one put real money on these or they’d be distraught.

How many separate players will make Pac-12 All-1st team at the end of the season?

5 or less players: 10 to 1 (14% of votes)

6 players: 7 to 1 (19%)

7 players: 4 to 1 (23%)

8 players: 2 to 1 (20%)

9 players: 2 to 1 (12%)

10 players: 4 to 1 (9%)

11 players: 7 to 1 (2%)

12 or more players: 10 to 1 (2%)

Pre-Season analysis: 9 Huskies made the All-1st team in 2016 and 4 of them were returning in 2017. That didn’t include Dante Pettis, Kaleb McGary, Coleman Shelton, Greg Gaines, Vita Vea, Keishawn Bierria, and Taylor Rapp who I thought would also have a chance. It seemed reasonable that if the Huskies went to the Pac-12 championship game that they could have at least 9 if not more again this season.

Final Verdict: Of the returning 1st teamers: Jake didn’t make 1st or 2nd, Myles only made 2nd team, Trey Adams tore his ACL, and Azeem Victor had the season from hell. So much for calling those 4 safe bets. Dante Pettis ascended as anticipated, Kaleb McGary and Coleman Shelton got recognized instead of Adams on the O-line, while Vita Vea and Taylor Rapp improved as expected on the defense. That means 5 or less players ended up being correct and paid out at 10 to 1.

My Pre-Season Bets

$30 on Under 4.5 true freshmen playing at +110

$40 on Dante Pettis leading the team in passer rating at +200

$30 on 10 players to make 1st team all-conference at +400

Final Verdict: As you should be able to tell if you read the article, I lost every single one of my own bets. That’s a failure.

Big Winner: I didn’t get quite as much audience participation as I wanted in the comments section but a few people put out their predictions. Congrats to Stewak who put all of his $100 fictional dollars on “someone else” to lead the team in passer rating at 10 to 1. They opted for the “in it to win it” philosophy by putting everything on the biggest odds they could find and it worked. To the rest of you and to the Dawgs, better luck next year.