Day 12: Fictional Husky Prop Bets

Aaron Fuller knows how many days until kickoff. Do you?

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Way back on Day 28 of our countdown series I looked at whether Jake Browning could win the Heisman and said towards the end that I didn’t approve of gambling.

Those who know me will find it hard to believe that I have never actually placed a bet on a sporting event. I love the idea of gambling. I love making predictions on sporting events and playing games like poker or blackjack. But I’m very cheap. So you’re about to get the best of both worlds. I’m going to lay out a series of Husky-centric fictional prop bets. And you are going to post in the comments how you would distribute $100 worth of UWDP funny money. If I actually remember at the end of the season, I will figure out who would have won the most money and give them a special shout out. Let’s get into it.

How many scholarship true freshmen will play this season for the Huskies?

Over 4.5: -120

Under 4.5: +110

By my count, only four of the 19 potential scholarship freshmen got on the field last season. Taylor Rapp was a revelation at safety, Aaron Fuller got an increasing amount of playing time at receiver as the season went on, Nick Harris was a shocking contributor on the line, and Brandon Wellington provided depth at linebacker and on special teams. This season there are several players who could be simply too good to not see the field. Those players include: RB Salvon Ahmed, TE Hunter Bryant, WR Ty Jones, WR Terrell Bynum, P Joel Whitford, CB Elijah Molden, and S Brandon McKinney.

Will Myles Gaskin have at least double the rushing attempts of Lavon Coleman?

Yes: Even

No: Even

Last season, Myles Gaskin had 237 carries and Lavon Coleman had 114 carries. That means that Coleman only needed to steal 4 rushing attempts away from Gaskin in order to keep from being doubled up. The backfield is even more crowded this season. Jamon Dotson was the 3rd string back but there was a chasm between Coleman and Dotson. Dotson is now in the secondary, Sean McGrew and Kamari Pleasant have come off their redshirt seasons, and Salvon Ahmed looks like John Ross but at running back. Coleman was the better back on a per carry basis but there’s basically no way to know whether the coaches will change up their carry ratios and that makes this essentially a coin flip.

Who will lead the UW Huskies in passer rating in 2017?

Jake Browning: 8 to 1

K.J Carta-Samuels: 2 to 1

Daniel Bridge-Gadd: 4 to 1

Dante Pettis: 2 to 1

Someone Else: 10 to 1

3 Huskies attempted a pass last season. Jake Browning had a 167.5 passer rating, K.J Carta-Samuels had a 212.6 passer rating, but Dante Pettis led the way with a 319.4 passer rating. Your answer depends on a few decisions. Jake is going to have a very high passer rating but will his relatively high volume drag him down? Do you think DBG beats out KJCS for the backup QB role? If so, then he will be more likely to have garbage time to get on the board. However, KJCS could still come in for trick plays so maybe he’s a better pick even if he’s 3rd string. And is Dante going to be the go to trick play QB again this year? He attempted 4 passes last year, completing 2 of them for 89 yards and a TD. If you think someone else takes over that role then maybe you go with the field. A lot of variables here.

How many games will the Huskies win by 28 points or more next season?

Over 5.5: -140

Under 5.5: +130

The Huskies defeated 8 opponents last season by 28 points or more. That doesn’t include a win over Arizona State by 26 points and over Oregon State by 24 points. So that 5.5 number is way too low, right? Home wins against Rutgers and Stanford by that margin are now on the road. The Oregon and Washington State games are flipped from road to home but the Wazzu game was by exactly 28 points and Oregon should be much better this year. There also will be the extra thought in the back of coach Pete’s mind this year that Jake got hurt at the end of the year which may encourage him to ease off the throttle a little earlier than last season.

How many separate players will make Pac-12 All-1st team at the end of the season?

5 or less players: 10 to 1

6 players: 7 to 1

7 players: 4 to 1

8 players: 2 to 1

9 players: 2 to 1

10 players: 4 to 1

11 players: 7 to 1

12 or more players: 10 to 1

Last year, 9 Huskies made 1st team all-conference. Among those returning are: Jake Browning, Myles Gaskin, Trey Adams, and Azeem Victor. There are no guarantees but the 4 of them seem like pretty safe bets. The following players also will have a good to great chance as well: Dante Pettis, Kaleb McGary, Coleman Shelton, Greg Gaines, Vita Vea, Keishawn Bierria, and Taylor Rapp. It wouldn’t be absolutely crazy to see a few others end up in contention with breakout seasons either. I use the word separate to show that Dante Pettis does not get double counted if he makes it as both a WR and punt returner.

My Bets:

$30 on Under 4.5 true freshmen playing at +110

$40 on Dante Pettis leading the team in passer rating at +200

$30 on 10 players to make 1st team all-conference at +400

Best case winnings: $233 in profit