UC Davis Aggies Game Preview/Open Thread

The Essentials

Date: Sunday, 11/26/17

Tip-Off Time: 5:00pm PST

TV: Pac-12 Networks

Radio: KOMO 1000

Location: Hec Edmundson Pavilion at Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington -7

UC Davis 2017-18 Statistics:

Record: 3-1

Points For per Game: 67.8 ppg (258th)

Points Against per Game: 61.0 ppg (24th)

Strength of Schedule: 229th

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 98.4 (273rd)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (129th)

Note: The efficiency numbers are weighted with preseason expectations. They’re a better way to judge offense and defense than raw point totals right now (and always) given the small sample sizes.

UC Davis Key Players:

F- Chima Moneke, Sr. 6’6, 223: 22.8ppg, 11.3rpg, 1.5apg, 45.1% FG, 72.7% FT, 37.5%3pt

This team revolves around Moneke to the degree that few programs do in the country. He’s 2nd in the country in % of shots taken and 4th in Usage %. That’s not a bad plan since he’s 12th in the country in defensive rebound % and in the top-100 of drawing fouls. We’ll see how he deals with a step up in size/athleticism that Washington will bring.

F- Garrison Goode, Jr. 6’7, 225: 2.8ppg, 2.8rpg, 1.6apg, 30.8% FG, 60% FT

Goode must be a good defensive player because there’s nothing in his offensive profile that suggests he should be playing as much as he is. He’s the 2nd tallest player on the Aggies roster so he’ll likely be asked to defend Timmins or Dickerson most of the night.

G- Michael Onyebalu, Sr. 6’3, 190: 3.8ppg, 2.8rpg, 1.5apg, 62.5% FG, 75% FT, 66.7% 3pt

Onyebalu’s shooting percentages look amazing. He must be a great offensive player right? Well there’s a reason he doesn’t shoot much. It’s because he turns the ball over on 45% on his possessions. Yikes.

G- Siler Schneider, Jr. 6’3, 183: 12.5ppg, 2.0rpg, 1.5apg, 55.3% FG, 0% FT, 61.5% 3pt

Schneider has only attempted three 3-pointers per game but has been a blistering 8/13 from deep. He’s only taken one free throw on the season so he’s not a risk to barrel to the hoop.

G- TJ Shorts, Sr. 5’9, 160: 12.0ppg, 2.5rpg, 4.3apg, 55.2% FG, 78.9% FT, 33.3% 3pt

I love it when players resemble their names and the Davis point guard is certainly that at just 5’9. He’s been most effective on defense though where he’s been among the nation’s leaders in steal percentage.

The Outlook

I’ll say from the get go that UC Davis is a strange team. When I do these analyses I look at the stats and then humbly state that I am quite good at using them to determine what style a team plays. But the Aggies are f***ing confusing man.

They are 12th in the country in 3-pt percentage, shooting 44.2% from deep. However, they’re 337/351 nationally in frequency of taking 3-pointers. So while they are incredibly efficient at shooting 3-pointers they hardly take any. Does that mean when confronted with a zone that they’ll continue shooting the lights out or are they only good shooters because of the small sample size?

On defense they are in the top-20 in steals. Typically that means a team gambles a lot which can lead to the occasional quick layup once your defense is compromised. However, Davis is again 337/351 in length of possession on defense. So offensive possessions against Davis take forever which usually happens against conservative low-risk defenses.

There are things that make sense however. Davis has no rotation player taller than 6’8 which leads to them having an effective height that is 339/351. Noah Dickerson should be able to have a field day against this undersized lineup. That team speed also helps the Aggies to get their steal totals. That size also gets them into trouble on offense where they aren’t good at getting 2nd chances on offensive rebounds and are 341/351 in giving up steals.

This is going to be a sloppy game with plenty of turnovers on both sides. Whichever team is able to convert in transition will have the edge. The question is UC Davis’s 3-point shooting. If they continue to take only a third of their shots from outside then it’s a win for the Huskies especially with their size advantage. However, if Davis switches it up and bombs from the outside at the same 44% clip they’ve shot at so far this season it bodes poorly for the Huskies. I don’t see any way though for Davis to slow down Noah Dickerson and the Dawgs’ length and athleticism should win the day.

Prediction

Washington Huskies- 76, UC Davis Aggies- 69

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