Saturday Open Thread and Rooting Guide

With UW out of the playoff hunt but still breathing in the race for the PAC 12 championship, this week’s rooting guide is easy.

In fact, it is so easy that UW technically doesn’t even have to win their own game to make it work. UW could lose to Utah tonight (giving them a third loss) but still win the division with an Apple Cup win if one key thing happens.

Cal must beat Stanford.

So, here is your week 12 rooting guide:

Cal at Stanford

Root for: Cal

If Cal beats Stanford, UW is back in firm control of their own destiny. A third loss on Stanford creates a negative tiebreaker situation for them because of the number of division losses that they would have on their ledger compared to UW.

So, can it happen?

It wouldn’t be a shocker. But the odds say no.

S&P+ has Stanford’s win probability at 77% with a 63 point difference between the Cardinal’s current S&P+ ranking (26) and Cal’s (89). ESPN’s FPI has it even more stacked in Stanford’s favor with an 89% probability.

So, none of that looks good for the Bears.

If there were to be a ray of hope, it would be rooted in the fact that the Bears have the ability to play Stanford’s game of controlling the clock and establishing a running game. Cal is #6 in the conference in Time of Possession just behind Stanford. In fact, only 18 seconds separates Cal from Stanford in average TOP per game.

There isn’t as big a talent gap between the two teams as you might think. The issue has been that the Bears have been much more turnover prone throughout the season. Cal has given up 18 turnovers to Stanford’s 9 on the season. But things have been improving for Cal in that regard as the season has worn on.

If Cal can control the clock, play bend don’t break D and have a favorable turnover margin (giving them an extra possession or two), they can win this game. It sounds cliche, but it is an effective formula against Stanford.

Don’t fret Husky fans. Cal has a plan to win the game. Doing it is a whole different thing.