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College Football Over/Unders: Pac-12

LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 01:  Head coach Lane Kiffin talks with quarterback Matt Barkley #7 during the  USC Trojans spring game on  May 1, 2010 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 01: Head coach Lane Kiffin talks with quarterback Matt Barkley #7 during the USC Trojans spring game on May 1, 2010 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
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The Conference of Champions. What more needs be said? It's God's conference.

Arizona 5.5: Over

I like Rich Rodriguez, and I think that he landed in a pretty good spot in Arizona. He's got a good mobile quarterback (Matt Scott) to run his offense and a fanbase that will be much more patient with lower expectations than what he dealt with at Michigan. And he won't have any former coaches tanking his efforts. I think they'll upset somebody this year (Oklahoma State at home week 2?), and with the weaker Pac-12 South opponents, end up in a bowl game.

Arizona State 5: Under

They don't have a quarterback and their head coach is unproven. Winning combo. A 1-4 start wouldn't phase me one bit, neither would a 3 or 4 win season. If they won 6 games, it'd raise an eyebrow though. I just don't see it.

California 6.5: Under

A Cal team with a lot of good players under-performs their talent. I've heard this song before. Cal has been doing less with more for about half a decade now, and that trend is going to continue. The opener against Nevada could be upset city, and a date with Ohio State in the Horseshoe followed by @USC would destroy this team's confidence and chemistry. And they wouldn't really have much of a chance to recover. It lightens up a bit against ASU and UCLA but then a rough stretch of @WSU, Stanford, @Utah, Washington, Oregon could knock them out of bowl eligibility for the second time in three years.

Colorado 4: Under

With a ton of freshman playing and Paul Richardson out all year, this is going to be another tough season for the Buffs. Any conference win they come by is going to be a battle, and even games against Colorado State and @Fresno State could be tricky. They're probably about a 4 win team, but 5 is a stretch while 3 is much more likely.

Oregon 10.5: Over

Even if they lose to USC, somebody else would have to beat them as well, and those are two big "if's" given how Chip Kelly has run roughshod over the Pac-12 since becoming head coach. If Marcus Mariota runs for 600 touchdowns as so many seem to think is a`given, this team should win its 4th straight conference title.

Oregon State 5.5: Under

This line seems really high for the Beavers. There are just too many questions on both lines to expect this team to double its win total from last season. I'm not sure they're much better than the 3 wins they got last year, and it looks more and more every year like they're going to get lapped by the rest of the conference. Quickly.

Stanford 7.5: Over

The Cardinal could be favored in as many as 10 of their games this season. While the other two -- USC and @Oregon -- I don't give them much shot at all to win, they should win just about all of the rest. Even if they drop a couple of them, they're still golden. The run game should be good enough to propel them past the early part of the schedule while Josh Nunes is broken in, as well as past the weaker teams on the schedule even if Nunes struggles down the stretch.

UCLA 6: Under

The Jim L. Mora regime starts off in a pretty rough manner: with a non-conference game AT (why?) Rice on Thursday night, then home for two probable losses against Nebraska and Houston. A lot of their winnable games are on the road (Colorado, Cal, ASU, WSU) which is never what you want. They'll also be breaking in a freshman QB in Brett Hundley, and that position hasn't been anything but a disaster as of late for UCLA.

USC 10.5: Over

Basically the same situation as Oregon: even if they lose their Nov 3 matchup with the Ducks, who else is beating them? I don't really see any other potential losses for the loaded Trojans. With homefield for the Duck game, they have an advantage for homefield for the Pac-12 Championship game and maybe an inside track to the National Championship.

Utah 8: Over

I'm not entirely sold on Utah as a top-25 team as so many others are, but their schedule will probably put them there even if they're not. It is far and away the weakest Pac-12 schedule (no Stanford, no Oregon) and their non-conference isn't a meat grinder either with Northern Colorado, Utah State and BYU. It's not the biggest stretch to see this team winning 10 games, and to win fewer than 8 would be a disaster of a season.

Washington 7.5: Over

Homer pick! If the Huskies can beat just one of LSU/USC/Oregon/Stanford (and they should) all they have to do is hold serve for the last 6 games on their schedule against inferior opponents and that's a 9 win season. If you factor in one inexplicable loss (Oregon State last season) that puts them at 8 wins.

Washington State 5.5: Under

I kept trying to talk myself into the over here, but it came down to way too many "if's". IF they start 4-0. IF they can upset somebody. IF they can find a Pac-12 quality defender or two. IF they can get their close games to fall their way. IF the offense picks up the Air Raid as fast as many assume it will. I think we'll learn more about WSU from their matchup @BYU tomorrow than any other team in week 1. They might make me regret this pick pretty quickly. Or they could get lit up by a good team in Provo.