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The Big 12, where men are men, and defenses are nonexistent. Honestly, I'm really looking forward to watching this conference battle it out this year. With West Virginia and TCU coming in, Oklahoma still Oklahoma, Texas rebounding, Oklahoma State suddenly a power, K State recapturing success, Baylor emerging and even Iowa State having their moments, this conference is very deep and explosive. Now, let me insult these teams.
Baylor 6: Over
I think Keith Price just scored another touchdown against them. Defense was dreadful, and the pieces that made the offense go need to be replaced. They'll probably hit 6 wins, 7 is going to be a challenge, but 3-0 non conference should be given, wins over Kansas, Iowa State and K State gets them there. Really a tweener pick here, but Art Briles has been in Waco long enough that they should be a regular bowl team year in and year out.
Iowa State 4.5: Over
Iowa State is headed the right direction, and that's the first time in probably ever that that's been said about this football team. 6 wins and a bowl game? If Gene Chizik had done that, he'd be coaching the United States of China's football team right now. I don't know what that means, but winning 6 games at Iowa is progress, and I'm impressed with Paul Rhoads.
Kansas 3.5: Under
They'll decidedly schematic their way to a winless conference record.
Kansas State 8: Under
I'm not too sold on this incarnation of Kansas State and Bill Snyder. Their 10 wins last season seemed really flukey, making them look prime for regression. Plus, the schedule is tougher. I'd be pretty comfortable taking the under if it were 7 here, because unless they're pulling off multiple upsets, 6 or 7 wins looks about right.
Oklahoma 10: Under
Oklahoma State 8.5: Over
I think that the offense here is a machine, and they can replace the parts (Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon) well enough to produce a facsimile of what they've been recently. They won't be as good -- they're starting a freshman QB -- but they'll be good enough to win most games, and win their share of tossup games. Nobody has really figured out how to defend their attack yet.
TCU 8.5: Under
I think TCU could start 7-0 and still not hit the over. We saw with Utah that it's not a walk in the park transitioning to a major conference, and even the games they should win on paper have to be called into question. There's no New Mexico in the Big 12 (save your Kansas jokes). The last 5 are Okie State, WVU, K State, Texas, Oklahoma. Brutal.
Texas 9: Under
I'm not sold on Texas being Texas until Texas is once again Texas. Find a QB, then we'll talk about double digit wins. Love Manny Diaz though.
Texas Tech 7: Under
No way on God's green earth does Tech win 8 games. I became a huge fan of Seth "Teach Me How To" Doege in their win over Oklahoma last season, only to watch them drop their last 5 consecutive games and miss a bowl. You will not burn me twice, Doege.
West Virginia 8.5: Over
I think that Dana Holgorson might be the best offensive mind in college football right now. He's no stranger to the Big 12, having come from Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and should pick up right where he left off: shredding their defenses.