FanPost

Did Sarkisian have a "road" problem?

A common criticism of Sarkisian's Husky teams is that they couldn't win on the road. I did a little research to test that theory, and here's what I've come up with.

I looked at the differential in winning percentage for all Pac-10 teams, conference games only, between 2005 and 2009. I chose those years even though it includes Sarkisian's first year because it was easy to get the data from College Football Data Warehouse. I ignored Colorado and Utah, since we have less data for them. Focusing on conference games only avoids the problems of severe mismatches and home-only series. I.e., we don't know how Portland State would perform at home against a Pac-12 team.

First, the home team won Pac-10 matchups 56 percent of the time. This means that, on average, Pac-10 teams had a differential of 56-44 = 12 percent between home and away. However, there was a large range: the smallest differential (WSU) was -0.5 percent, i.e., they were slightly better on the road. (It pays to leave Pullman.); and the largest differential (UCLA) was about 36 percent. Here's a summary.

Picture1_medium

This is a wider range than I would have thought. Partly that's probably because I looked at only a few years. Note that the differential for Washington is right in the middle of the Pac. Willingham was equally bad at home and on the road.

How did Sark's teams compare to this distribution? I've re-created the figure including Sark's teams, looking again at only Pac-10 games.

Picture2_medium

As you can see, the win percentage differential during Sark's tenure was way out at the extreme. This seems to offer some basic evidence supporting the conventional wisdom: over the last five years, the Dawgs have had a road problem. Or I suppose you could say the Dawgs have had a huge home-field advantage. Take your pick.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join UW Dawg Pound

You must be a member of UW Dawg Pound to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at UW Dawg Pound. You should read them.

Join UW Dawg Pound

You must be a member of UW Dawg Pound to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at UW Dawg Pound. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker