Duck the Fu... Wait, That Doesn't Work
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 7, 2012 6:08 PM PST
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PrintThis week the Dawgs head down to Corvallis to face off against the Oregon schools. First up is the Ducks.
We all share a communal hatred for these, but throughout this article I will try my best to leave this deep seed of disdain removed from the conversation.
The Ducks are led by Dana Altman. Hah! The Ducks are led by a girl! Wait, No? Dana is a boy? Well that ruins things. Gotta remind myself to stop mocking the Ducks. Man this'll be hard. Altman was a very successful coach at Creighton averaging of 20 wins per season. In comparison Lorenzo Romar has the Huskies averaging 21 wins per season. One must be reminded that Creighton is a smaller school so those numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. Altman was head coach of Kansas State for four years and did lead them to one tournament appearance. As a coach he is 2-8 in the Big Dance and has never made it out of the Round of 32.
Regardless he is generally considered to be a respectable coach with the ability to lead the Ducks to prominence. Maybe he won't lead them to a Final Four (that's fine by me) but he could very well turn them into contenders for the Pac-12 title.
This year's rendition of the Ugly Ducks is fourth in the Pac-12 with a 7-4 (.636) record in conference.
The Ducks are a team that doesn't just rely on defense or rely on offense. This is a team that is unremarkable yet solid in each of those categories. One place that they really hang their hat on however is their rebounding. Their rebounding percentage (52.3%) is second in the conference to only the Huskies (53.8%).
The main point guard for this Duck team has been Jonathon Lloyd. He has been hobbled by a knee injury and his minutes have been taking a dip because of it. He is no longer starting but is still an important key to the success of Oregon. In his place the point has been run by Garret Sim. Sim was initially in the two-guard spot but was moved to accommodate the reduction of Lloyd's minutes.
The "new" two-guard is Senior transfer Devoe Joseph. Joseph is the top scorer and top thief for Oregon. He, in addition, is also number two in assists per game.
The best player for the Ducks is probably the Junior forward E.J. Singler. He is their top rebounder and number two scorer. He also is averaging over two assists per game, so his passing is another strong part of his game. If the game comes down to one shot, this is most likely the man taking the shot for the Ducks.
Another starter for the Ducks is Olu Ashalou. He is another Senior transfer whom happens to be a forward. He is the number two rebounder for the Ducks and averages over eight points per game.
The final starter is Junior transfer Center Tony Woods. Woods is a shotblocking threat with over a block and a half per game. His rebounding leaves much to be desired however, as he is averaging under four per game. This is much lower than a 6-10 center should average.
Overall this is a game that the Huskies should win and help them maintain momentum going into their matchup with Oregon State.
Projected Starters:
| Oregon | Washington |
| G - Garret Sim | G - Abdul Gaddy |
| G - Devoe Joseph | G - Tony Wroten |
| G - E.J. Singler | G - Terrence Ross |
| F - Olu Ashalou | F - Desmond Simmons |
| C - Tony Woods | C - Aziz N'Diaye |
Thanks to www.statsheet.com
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The little bit I know of him is
i have heard that he is very athletic. Is that true?
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 7, 2012 6:21 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I missed the first game
What i saw against CU and what I know about our team. He is the type of player that could have a career high against us. Too me he is the player to watch.
Yes..well, let's just hope the thuggary doesn't show itself this game...
would just like to see Aziz take it up a notch in boards,points and generally being a menacing presence! Tony Tony Tony? More Tony! Where’s the beef? Hoping for ASJ,Reign Baby,and Co. to bring their toolbox and just get-r-done…no drama,just a workmanlike duck-hunt! Abdul can continue to show what a quality surgeon can do…CJ Wilcox/T Ross/Mr.Gant can prove too much for the “feathers”! Show how the hardwood Dawgs “Just Do It”!
Dawgs Got This
Please, get us some revenge for football…
100-0
The basketball team could blow out the zeros 100-0 and I wouldn’t feel redeemed for all the beat downs on the gridiron. We need to win on the football field to heal those wounds. That said, I can’t wait to roast some duck served on a hardwood platter.
I feel the same!
Need some very physical retribution on the gridiron to make up for the past few years. I am excited to shoot some Ducks down over that forest they call a basketball court! At first glance, all those trees make it look stained and old haha
by CanisInvictus on Feb 8, 2012 12:31 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
Whoregon Yucks
Won’t be hard to find them. You drive south till you smell it, then west till you step in it.
Spend just enough time on the ugly a$$ court to get the W, get back in the bus, and leave that landfill.
by Regent Denali on Feb 8, 2012 6:58 AM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I feel a deep repugnance for their court!
It is terrible. Makes my TV look out of focus, and I have a top of the line TV!
You seem to be way more confident about this game than I think the general fan base is.
Kenpom gives us a 49% chance at winning, essentialy a toss up and I think that is about right. We are going to need to play very well in order to win, limit our mistakes and take advantage of any gifts Oregon gives us.
UCLA was up ten at halftime against the Ducks and coughed up the lead in 3 possesions coming out of the break. We need to get out front early and then continue to play good basketball the rest of the game. If we are ever down by 10 or more we are going to find it very difficult to pull out the win.
Gotta be optimistic!
It’s going to be a tough road game against a tough team that needs the W to stay near the front of the pack. Won’t be easy, but there’s something to be said about the power of positive thinking. Go Dawgs!
by CanisInvictus on Feb 8, 2012 12:35 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
Haha, I didn't mean to come off as a debbie downer.
I think we’ve got a great shot at winning, I just hesitate when I see people say this is a game we “should” win. This is a game we can win, and that we need to win, but if we lose people shouldn’t be that surprised. Each of the games this weekend will be tough, if we win both then I will be very impressed.
I understand the sentiment
we really seem to play up and down to the competition this year. Combine that with it being a road game, and I can easily see us taking a win for granted. I mean, we only beat a pretty bad ASU team by 6 on the road.
My thoughts exactly.
I feel like we’ve turned a corner and that we can and will win tomorrow, but it is far from in the bag and I’m definitely nervous about the outcome. If we win I’ll be extremely excited, if we lose I won’t be too surprised, and I think we’ll be ok as long as we beat OSU on Sunday.
I pretty much agree
but I really want this game. I want to win out, getting hot at the end of the year is big for our conference tourney confidence and NCAA resume! That’s what happened last year and if we play against UNC with even officiating, who knows how far we would go!
I feel this is a game we should win
I believe with our talent we should win every PAC 12 game we play
Don't agree on this
Oregon is playing very well, and will be at home. This is a game we can win, but I wouldn’t be suprised to see a highly motivated Ducks team tomorrow. Yes we have more talent, and the team is playing better, but with our trouble on the road I would not say we “should” win.
That said, this team can make a statement with a sweep on the road here. We won’t lock up the PAC with a sweep, but would be in a great position to. I expect Romar to have this team ready to play, as they are playing better and better.
Benno
by Benno on Feb 8, 2012 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This is much more of the position I an coming from.
With our talent we “should” win each game.
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 8, 2012 3:47 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
This ignores the variability inherent in college basketball (and all sports).
We are the most talented team in the Pac-12, I agree. That doesn’t mean I expect us to go 7-0 the rest of the way. Tomorrow is going to be a very tough game, I think that expecting a win because we are slightly more talented is the wrong approach.
My personal opinion of "should" win a game doesn't mean I guarantee it.
Or anything close. I just think that we have ~65% chance or greater of pulling out the win. If you pulled a random Gaddy FT it “should” be a make, but not necessarily will be.
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 8, 2012 7:38 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Hm, I guess we have different definitions of "should" then.
I’d put anything with a 65% chance as a “might.” “Should” would be something like 90% confidence at least.
yeah I guess that is pretty much the difference.
I was really into baseball stats for a little while so when u tilt probabilities in your favor I always think of that positively and thus it is mentally a “should” in my book.
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 8, 2012 8:43 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
I said we SHOULD win.
Our talent and newfound cohesiveness should push us ahead. Not to say it will, as we always seem to find ways to struggle on the road.
Victory is not assured, but we are growing up.
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 8, 2012 1:05 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Haha, good to see we posted at the same time.
What makes you think this is a game we should win? Oregon is one of the better teams in the Pac-12, and we’re playing at their place.
To me “should” means that we are expected to win and that it will be surprising if we lose. I don’t think this game falls into that category at all. USC on Saturday, and for that matter UCLA at home on Thursday, were games that we should have won. Playing at one of the better teams in the Pac-12 does not equate to a game we “should” win.
I believe this is a game we should win because we are more talented.
In addition, our new ability to actually play as a team should push us to a level of play higher than what we had been.
by Ben Knibbe on Feb 8, 2012 3:36 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Myself
Dont pay any attention to Kenpom. Statistics are for baseball. Basketball has way to many other factors. I do think Oregon is tough game because its on the road. UW is starting to come around in my opinion.
why arent you doing the basketball pickem?
To be honest I didn't even know there was a basketball pick'em until the latest results post.
Not sure if it is worth it to jump in at this point since I’ve missed a few weeks already.
It's worth it
Pretty fun actually. I can’t believe I misse most of the football one and the first week of basketball. I might have missed the first two weeks!
There are obviously a lot of things which make it tough to measure basketball teams and players, but I think efficency stats can be very useful.
There is a reason Kenpom is so succesful at predicting outcomes. If nothing else, efficency and rate stats are a giant step up from just PPG, RPG, APG, etc.
Tonight
Dawgs have the talent to win tonight. If they can not let the crowd and the barf court distract them and control the boards, they will get the W. I believe OSU will be the easier of the two games. As always on the road, you have to have energy,determination,confidence and a hot shooter (T-Ross???).
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