The Dawn of the Age of the Super Conference
by John Berkowitz on Sep 19, 2011 2:48 PM PDT
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PrintIf you are a fan of Big 12 and Big East football enjoy it while it lasts because this is probably the last season that those two conferences are going to exist. Like it or not the dawn of the "Super Conference" era is upon us. The wheels were set in motion by Texas A&M earlier this month when they were conditionally accepted into the SEC.
We all know that the SEC isn't going to stand pat at 13 teams so the ACC had to make a defensive move to add teams before the SEC and possibly the Big Ten started poaching members from within their ranks.
Adding Pittsburgh and Syracuse who were possible Big Ten targets was a bold move. It took away two serious Big Ten targets. Could the Big Ten retaliate by swooping in and grabbing a Maryland?
Lets break down the possibilities conference by conference on who the candidates are to go where after the break.
The Southeastern Conference
Texas A&M couldn't live with the Longhorn Network and unequal revenue sharing so they applied for membership in the SEC and were conditionally accepted. The SEC isn't going to stay at 13 teams. They are going to pluck three more schools from either the ACC, Big East, or what is left from the Big 12.
So who are the best bets to be extended membership in the SEC?
Florida State - The Noles keep saying that they are happy in the ACC but the lure of the SEC would certainly be tempting. Florida probably wouldn't like it but in the world of 16 team uber-conferences sacrifice is part of the equation when it comes to growing the revenue pot.
Missouri - The Tigers would jump at the chance to join the SEC but in my mind they are a much better fit for the Big Ten. They aren't exactly located in the sweet old land of Dixie but they do expand the conference footprint into St Louis and Kansas City. If I was Jim Delaney of the Big Ten I would open immediate discussions with Missouri before they disappear just like Syracuse and Pitt did over the weekend.
Maryland - The Terrapins would deliver the Mid Atlantic markets of DC and Baltimore. It is a good school with strong athletic programs which would fit in well with the SEC.
Virginia Tech - Blacksburg isn't huge market but it would put the SEC brand in a new region which is what you want to do when you expand.
West Virginia - Solid historical programs in both football and basketball. Probably a better fit with the ACC but the SEC certainly will consider them.
Miami - Major probation is on the way for the Cane's and that could complicate a move to the SEC. Attendance is also down ever since the team moved from the Orange Bowl to Fort Lauderdale. Miami football has a rich history but the program seems to be in a down trend. Academically the school is a better fit with the ACC.
Georgia Tech - They were a member of the SEC until 1964. They left because of a feud with Alabama, and other conference members over scholarship allotments plus the general treatment of the student athlete. Tech has won four national championships in football. Tech has tried to rejoin the SEC in the past but bitter rival Georgia has always been opposed. Adding another team in Georgia doesn't expand the conference footprint.
Clemson - Geography and a strong brand make the Tigers a natural pick for the SEC but how competitive would they be compared to where they are in the ACC. South Carolina hasn't exactly lit it up since joining the SEC. If Clemson is smart they stay where they are because the ACC isn't going to go away. Adding an additional program in South Carolina doesn't ad much to the SEC.
Louisville - A real dark horse with a decent shot of getting an invitation depending on which way the ball starts bouncing out there. Does the SEC need another program in the state of Kentucky?
Baylor - Texas A&M could use a travel partner and Baylor could use a home. The move would expand the footprint in Texas but is Waco where they want to put the foot down?
Texas Christian - Same theory as Baylor but the school is located in Fort Worth which is a lot more attractive than Waco.
Memphis - The Liberty Bowl seats over 60,000. Memphis as a city and a market has a lot to offer. That being said UT probably owns this market and Memphis football isn't supported currently at an SEC type level.
The Big Ten
All this expansion nonsense started here when Jim Delaney floated the idea that his conference could expand to as many as sixteen teams. All the Big Ten really wanted was Notre Dame and they said no. They ended up taking Nebraska over Missouri so they could balance the league at twelve and have a championship game.
I find it odd that Syracuse and Pitt jumped from the Big East to the ACC before waiting to see what the Big Ten was going to do. Everyone knows the Big Ten end game is forcing Notre Dame to become a member. Everyone knows that the demise of the Big East is the falling domino which gets that done.
So does the Big Ten continue to wait on Notre Dame or do they start forcing the issue by deciding to invite Missouri, Kansas, Rutgers, and U-Conn?
Notre Dame - The Big Ten really doesn't want to expand unless the Irish decide to join the conference. The Irish on the other hand want to keep their independence in football and only the demise of the Big East threatens that at this point.
Rutgers - The Big Ten has always been fascinated with the NY-NJ television market. Even though Rutgers is a traditional doormat they do hold the key to gaining cable subscribers in this area. They are AAU members which is a huge plus and they also have a new 52,000 seat football stadium.
Missouri - The Tigers seem to be headed to the SEC at this point but their preference would clearly be the Big Ten. Missouri is a perfect fit and they do bring two new television markets with them. That being said that didn't matter last year when they picked Nebraska instead.
Virginia- This move would really shake up the ACC wouldn't it? Strong academics, lots of history, expanded footprints, and plenty of TV sets.
Maryland - See above and continue...The Cavaliers would need a strong travel partner and Maryland would fit the bill.
U-Conn - Not exactly a great history if football but they do have a new football stadium and it would help expand the brand in the Northeast. Obviously they would be good travel partners for Rutgers. If the Big Ten doesn't take them the ACC certainly will.
Kansas - A perfect fit from an academic and cultural standpoint. The basketball program is historically one of the best in the country. The football program is well supported but is pretty much a doormat. Kansas isn't a growth state by any means and it doesn't add many TV sets.
Iowa State - Another AAU school which would be a good academic fit but does the Big Ten need two teams in Iowa? ISU could end up stranded in the Mountain West or some type of new configuration of schools who have been left behind.
Kansas State - Kansas and Kansas State share the same board of regents but that isn't going to insure that both of these programs land in the same place now that the Big East is imploding. I don't see the Big Ten going in this direction.
The Pac 12
The Pac 12 wouldn't mind waiting a few years to expand. In fact they wouldn't mind it at all if the major conferences concentrated on having 12 members rather than 16. That all changed when the Oklahoma schools expressed interest in joining the Pac 12 with or without Texas. That coupled with the exodus of Texas A&M to the SEC doomed the Big 12 to extinction.
I expect that Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will announce that they are joining the Pac 12 as early as this evening Texas and Texas Tech will join soon after.
Texas - The Longhorns aren't a lock because of the Longhorn Network but I think they are missing the boat on that one. I think the network works better with a partner like Texas Tech.
Oklahoma - The school doesn't match up that well academically with the conference but you can't argue with an athletic pedigree which is among the best in college athletics.
Kansas - The Pac 12 would prefer the Jayhawks over Texas Tech or Oklahoma State but that isn't going to happen unless the Texas schools go elsewhere.
Oklahoma State - The Cowboys get to come for two reasons. The coat tail of Oklahoma and the bank account of T. Boone Pickens. The two schools are a package deal.
Texas Tech - Texas would need a travel partner and Tech would fit the bill. If Texas goes elsewhere or goes independent Tech will not be invited. If Texas could ditch Tech they would.
Kansas State - If Texas goes elsewhere or elects to go independent Kansas and Kansas State could end up being a package deal.
The Atlantic Coast Conference
The ACC just finished making the bold move of adding Pittsburgh and Syracuse which more than likely is the death blow for Big East football.
Texas and Texas Tech have expressed some interest in the ACC over the past two weeks but I think that interest is solely to add leverage in the Longhorns future negotiations with the Pac 12.
The ACC needs to add two teams to reach sixteen but I expect that the SEC will poach 2-3 of its existing members which would open up slots for most of the remaining orphans from the demise of the Big East. Notre Dame is also a wild card to possibly consider.
Notre Dame - If Notre Dame does join a conference it isn't a given that the Big Ten would be the destination. The ACC raid on the Big East could help or hurt.
U-Conn - The Huskies don't want to be left behind and they immediately started lobbying for membership in the ACC the minute that Syracuse and Pittsburgh left.
West Virginia - This program will find a home in either the SEC or ACC depending on which moves the SEC makes in coming weeks.
Louisville - Not exactly academically up to par with the rest of the ACC even though it would give the conference a new market.
Cincinnati - The Bearcats have developed a strong football program since joining the Big East. This is a program that runs a strong risk of being orphaned by the big four.
The Big East and the Big Twelve
Nobody expected Syracuse and Pittsburgh to jump this quickly. They both had to know something. That something had to be that the Big Ten wasn't interested and the ACC was all over them.
U-Conn will be the next to leave as they are also actively seeking membership in the ACC. West Virginia is also as good as gone and will find a home in either the ACC or SEC. Rutgers could end up in either the Big Ten, ACC. or get stranded with Texas Christian, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Louisville.
So how do you rebuild a conference that loses 4-5 of its teams? Do you just let it die or do you scramble and regroup with what is left.
I think you start off by grabbing what is left over from the Big 12 before the Mountain West gets its grubby little fingers on it.
Kansas - If the Big Ten doesn't expand the Jayhawks are going to need to find a new home and they could end up being the cornerstone of a new Big East...or whatever you want to call this reincarnation.
Kansas State - Wherever Kansas goes Kansas State will go if they can.
Iowa State - The Cyclones are going to be orphaned one way or another. They could go East or West. Perhaps they just go where somebody wants them the most. ISU is a great school and the only negatives they have are geography and population which results in a lack of TV sets.
Baylor - The Bears and TCU would be fits as travel partners and rivals.
Memphis - Great basketball school with a football program that can compete in this conference.
Central Florida - Would be a good travel partner and rival for South Florida.
Temple - The Owls have been reborn since being kicked out of the Big East a few years ago.
Villanova - The move to Division One probably gets put on hold.
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Wow!
Great recap on what can happen in the next (hour, day, month, year)… I tell you, I miss the old Pac-12.
In the end, the real question becomes what happens to the NCAA? With these dramatic changes on the verge of taking place, do the colleges take a closer look at the viability of the NCAA? With so many issues that exist, is the NCAA relevant anymore? I would not be sad if a new ruling body were to come into existance.
Benno
by Benno on Sep 19, 2011 3:13 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Great discussion but way above my pay grade to affect anything.
I am in the stand pat mode for awhile, but that’s probably not going to happen.
No way the ACC teams leave for the SEC. The buyout was just raised to 20 mil a few days ago.
Not gonna happen.
Never say never.
Mark Schlabach wrote this morning that
With the ACC increasing its exit fees to $20 million for schools that want to leave, possible SEC targets like Maryland and Virginia Tech might now be off the table. The SEC distributed $220 million to its 12 members ($18.3 million per school) this past spring in revenue sharing. An ACC school with interest in joining the SEC might be willing to absorb a $20 million exit fee to ensure itself of increased revenue in the future.
Does anyone know what the ACC payout was last year?
I agree that the vote makes it look like everyone is committed, but, without an SEC invite in hand, who would have voted nay? The key for the ACC is maintaining an appearance of robust health, because, if you’re going to be one of the schools who are left behind, you want to be able to draw in as many schools from the Big East (or even the Big 12) as you can before the SEC comes to gnosh on your buddies.
Does anyone know what the ACC payout was last year?
Small. Something like $6 or $7 million per year. They have a new deal that starts next year, but that won’t help anyone looking to leave right now.
$20 million is a big number. I think the ACC desperately wants to be one of the conferences that’s left standing, but for basketball reasons as much as football.
$20 million is a big number.
Yes, but a defector will be looking to triple that annual conference payout, and the common perception is that once these conferences settle and the dust dies down, you’re going to be stuck at whatever table you find yourself until the end of time. I don’t claim to buy into that, but a lot of the talking heads have been spouting it, and I think that most schools want to make sure that they sit down at the right table before the music starts. That $20 million payout makes sure that they can sit in the ACC if they can’t move up to the table with the cool kids. It’s a big number, but these schools are enormous non-profit financial entities that are run by academics. They want to make long-term financial decisions that they hope will keep them viable far into the future, even while most of them will do something financially irresponsible if given the chance. Make no mistake: this is higher education in America that we’re talking about here.
the cost of Big Education
is going up faster than medical care…..two industries dominated by the government.
Cost of Education
You do realize that the costs are going up because universities are becoming less and less funded by government and more of private institutions right?
The solutions are simple.
Too many university instructors still have health insurance. This isn’t Russia. They should pay for their own health insurance just like everyone in the private sector does. Study after study shows that if the UW took health insurance away from the teachers who still have it, we would save enough money to buy eight Oregon Ducks.
And with regard to health insurance, the last time I checked, Seattle was not the South. We believe in evolution up here, and evolution means survival of the fittest. The dinosaurs did not have doctors. If you were a dinosaur and you got sick, you died. We should take all the money we waste on health insurance and spend it on asteroid defense.
by Bugs Dodger on Sep 20, 2011 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You've had some good lines lately, but this
before the Mountain West gets its grubby little fingers on it
made me spit soda all over the laptop.
I am glad I can act as one of your muses!
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Sep 19, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
bring back the pac 8!
if the conference goes to 16 by picking up a couple of midwest/southwest package deals, i would love to see the divisions be the original pac 8, and then everybody else. it certainly protects concerns of tradition and recruiting bases for west coast schools.
Our leather lungs together...
The pods idea has been around for a while and I see that John Wilner thinks it could happen...
… I don’t know, though. We have already seen that simplicity trumps everything and “east-west” with two cross-divisional games per year is clearly the most simple route. Everyone plays everyone over the course of four years (or eight years if a “home and home” is done every two years with your cross-divisional mate).
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
I would much rather have the East/West format - and keep the original Pac 8 intact
But I just don’t think it is going to happen. Simplicity works for us fans, but from a money/recruiting standpoint, where everyone is demanding equal access, things are amazingly complicated.
hmmm....
… all those things didn’t seem to matter too much when we got organized into the north / south. Seems to me that the vast majority of fans wanted the more complicated “zipper” plan.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
I don't like pods
Makes me think of science fiction moves
Last PAC-10 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington
by DAWGFATHER91 on Sep 19, 2011 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Fixed
Makes me think of science fiction moves movies
Last PAC-10 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington
by DAWGFATHER91 on Sep 19, 2011 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions
The Arizonas want access to California, too. As much as we love the thought of the Pac-8 making a comeback, they were with us in the Pac-10 for more than thirty years. We’d be pretty big jerks to send them back East, wouldn’t we? Colorado just ran away from the Big 12. They would not be happy if we stuck them in an Eastern Division with OU and UT. Oklahoma and Texas would beat them into the ground until the end of days out of vindictive revenge for their precipitating the Big 12 collapse.
I’m willing and capable of being a jerk. This is not to say that I’m not rooting for the Pac-8 to make a comeback. That would be awesome.
Too bad for the Arizonas, the Colorados and the Utahs that the power brokers in the confernce are in California.
The question is “what do THEY want”?
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
You only need one of those to get both.
by Steen on Sep 19, 2011 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Access? Like how?
If the four pods divisions became reality with each schools playing all three in their division, and two from the other divisions, they will be playing in Cali every year.
by Carl Shinyama on Sep 19, 2011 4:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That access is the argument for the pods and against an East-West alignment that would resurrect the “Pac-8.” A school in that hypothetical eight-team inland division would not visit LA very often.
by Bugs Dodger on Sep 19, 2011 5:03 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Not just that, either
but I’d bet everyone’s going to want access to Texas as well.
Personally, I’m betting on two divisions — Pacific (old Pac-8) and Mountain — with the divisions split into pods and scheduling based on pods, as per Wilner’s schema, rather than on divisions. That way all the non-CA schools get a game in California every year, and all the non-TX schools get a game in TX/OK every year, but the division names and races (which is the main thing the casual fan is going to look at) are clear and simple and make sense.
by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 19, 2011 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions
The funniest thing that I read today were Texans lamenting that they’d have to come to the Pacific Northwest if they join the Pac. The Pacific Northwest is not someplace that they are interested in visiting: it’s quite ugly here.
I dunno about sober, but...
I’ve been told you can go from one side of the state to the other buy liquor, food, and fire arms and then get married without ever leaving your vehicle. Progress!
Just remember that it's ...
… illegal to transport more than six sex toys across the state of Texas in your vehicle. Of course, anyone who travels with more than six sex toys in his vehicle might be looking forward to a night of fun in an El Paso jail.
I lived in Texas; I can see that
If my idea of beautiful landscape was brown and flat, I’d think the PNW ugly too.
by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 19, 2011 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions
the Pods are a fair way of doing things...
We are technically in a six team pod at the moment anyway.
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
What would this pod system look like for a pac16?
by Edgar for Pres on Sep 19, 2011 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
For football, the pods are probably
PNW, Cali, Mountain (CO,UT,AZ), and Plains (4 new schools). Each school plays everyone in your pod, and 2 teams in the other three pods (alternating each year). That’s 9 games, just like the Pac12 and Pac10. Basketball, not important yet. Thirty conference games sound excessive.
That's what I'm figuring
though, as I argued just above, I expect the pods to be officially organized into two divisions; for basketball, you don’t need the pods, but divisional play still makes good sense.
by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 19, 2011 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
armageddon
Man the barricades close the blog.
JDHusker just left and now BigTex is logging in!
Spare me please.
Support our student athletes, have faith in the coaches! "...it's how you play the game!"
Big East?
I think they will try to regroup as a basketball-only conference. That is about the only card they will have left to play if all this goes down.
All I saw was purple
Texas
How bad to we really want Texas? I might be alone on this but Texas is only in it for themselves. It is perceived that SMU was responsible for the demise of the Southwest Confernce. I’m not sure that I agree with that. Let’s look at it, The SEC had already taken Arkansas and added independent Kentucky, forming the very first super conference of 12 members. I suspect regardless of SMU’s death penalty, it seems logical to me that the Big Eight and SWC wouild evenutally merge together to form their own version of a super conference. My question is- who instigated talks between the Big Eight schools and the SWC teams to merge? Was it Texas? Texas knew geographically the SWC was stale and the border of Texas was the single footprint, big footprint but limited nationally. Merging with the Big Eight, forming the Big 12 was a lucrative deal that Texas couldn’t resist.
Now once the Big 12 was up and running, Texas had the lion’s share of revenue and have horded it like a school boy holding all the marbles. Was it Texas greed that was the demise of the old SWC? Is it now Texas greed that is the demise of the dysfunctional Big 12? How could the Big 12 crumble as much as it has already? They had/have some traditionally huge mega juggernaut football programs in that league. Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Texas A&M are at the top of that list. Nebraska left, Colorado left, A&M is leaving. and Oklahoma is considering a move. What is the common denominator in all of this? That’s right fellas, Texas.
If I had a vote, I would stipulate that Texas do away with their ambitions of a privatize network. Either you are onboard so the league’s network can bring in truck loads of money and if you aren’t willing then I don’t want you. Texas greed killed the SWC and Texas greed is on the doorstep of killing the Big 12. I just hope our Pac 12 school presidents make a good decision for the league’s security and stability. I want Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. But if Texas is bargaining for more of the pie, then I say let them go independent and we take a Missouri or a Kansas instead.
All I saw was purple
if Texas joins, it will be on Larry Scott's terms
After working so hard to get the SoCal schools on board with fully equal TV revenue sharing, I don’t see any chance that Scott capitulates to Texas on this issue.
Where you’ll see negotiation is in divisional alignments and, more importantly, in scheduling. Everyone wants a shot at playing in SoCal, and everyone wants a chance to play in the heart of Texas. The only way to reconcile that is to go with pod scheduling. As much as I’d love to see a normal divisional split with the coastal schools (aka the original Pac-8) in one division, I think the only way that happens is if the NCAA shoots down the pod schedule idea, and I’m guessing the NCAA will back down on that.
Texas is headstrong, but they are having to accept some serious humble pie right now as penance for their past sins of ego. As long as Scott stays strong, we’ll get off on the right foot with Texas in forcing them to accept the fact that every school is an equal member and that sharing is good. And the added TV revenue from bringing the Longhorns & Sooners into the conference will be nice perks in allowing our athletic department catch up in terms of facilities and keep up in coaching salaries and recruiting budgets.
Scott
If he can pull that off, then I’d welcome Texas. But we should be very cautious about Texas and their role in how the SWC was displaced and the dysfuntion and demise of one of the best college football conferences in the Big 12. They (Texas) shrugs it off, but schools are leaving the Big 12 due to Texas and the league manopoly they carved out.
All I saw was purple
SWC collapsing was all about probation and Arkansas bolting
That conference couldn’t survive as-is. Did Texas ruffle some feathers by how they acted? No doubt, but a conference that concentrated in one state didn’t have a long-term future – they could all see where the TV revenue winds were blowing, and it was a no-brainer after Arkansas left to blow it up when the opportunity to merge with the Big-8 happened.
Texas gets too much blame for what happened to the SWC. Now, the potential implosion of the Big-12 is another matter…
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