Pac 12 Power Ratings - Pre Media Day Edition
by John Berkowitz on Jul 21, 2011 5:23 AM PDT
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PrintPac 12 Media Day will be held Tuesday, July 26th in Los Angeles. The Pac 12 writers will also unveil their annual media poll to the public that same day. Most of the writers who participate in the that poll are revealing the way they voted this week. This is how I see things heading into the start of camp.
The North obviously will be dominated by Stanford and Oregon who once again will be the two best teams in the entire conference. The Huskies will fight it out with Cal and Oregon State for third place. The South is completely wide open. ASU gets the nod because of their defense and overall returning experience. Don't forget about the Trojans. They still have enough talent to beat most teams.
1. Oregon...The Ducks are the defending champs and somebody needs to knock them off the pedestal before you can say they aren't the best team in the conference. Some say that the threat of probation will get to them this season but I am not even close to buying into that. All that being said they won't be as good as last season. I am thinking 9-10 wins which will give them a shot at the championship game and Rose Bowl.
Duck Challenges: Rebuilding the offensive line, finding depth at wide receiver, and reloading on defense.
Returning Starters: 15 (7 offense, 6 defense, 2 PK/P)
Duck MVP: RB LaMichael James
2. Stanford...Coach Jim Harbaugh is gone but the Cardinal will be in good hands under Jim Shaw. Andrew Luck will make sure that the transition is pretty seamless on offense even though the Cards will be breaking in some new receivers. Just like the Ducks they won't be as good as last season but I still see 9-10 wins. Whoever wins the North division is headed to the Rose Bowl.
Cardinal Challenges: Replacing three starters on the offensive line. Dealing with the loss of Coach Jim Harbaugh. Finding some quality depth at wide receiver.
Returning Starters: 12 (5 offense, 6 defense, 1 PK/P)
Cardinal MVP: QB Andrew Luck
3. Arizona State...I had the Sun Devils ranked third in the conference last time I did one of these rankings earlier this year. Things have changed since then and the injury bug has taken a serious bite out of this squad prior to the start of fall drills. The losses of CB Omar Bolden and WR T.J. Simpson will be felt. Both standouts suffered season ending knee injuries this past spring. Starting DE James Brroks left the team for personal reasons leaving another big hole to fill. All that being said when I compare the Devils with all the other teams in the division I think they have the edge going in.
Sun Devil Challenges: The Devils play both Missouri and Illinois this season. There is a lot of experience returning but this team needs to stay healthy to win.
Returning Starters: 19 (10 offense, 9 defense, 0 PK/P)
Sun Devil MVP: MLB Vontaze Burfict
4. USC...The talent is always there but there was a definite fall off in performance during Kiffin's first season as coach. The defense which is run by his father Monte was simply atrocious. We see a lot of holes in this program right now and things will get worse before they get better which allows schools like Washington to catch up.
Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense 0 PK/P)
Trojan challenges: Staying motivated while ineligible for a bowl game. Finding some depth and performance on the offensive line. Getting the defense to buy into Monte Kiffin's system.
Trojan MVP: QB Matt Barkley
5. Washington...The only question marks I have about the Huskies going into the 2011 season is at QB, OL, and LB. Insiders keep telling me not to worry about QB. They say production will be better this season despite the graduation of Jake. I am also hearing that Jon Timu and Princeton Fuimaono are going to be monster additions at linebacker. The offensive line will have more overall talent than in the past but the young guys still will need to gel as a cohesive unit.
Husky Challenges: Breaking in a new QB and getting a young but talented line to jell on offense. Finding replacements for LB's Mason Foster and Vic Aiyewa on defense.
Returning Starters: 17 (7 offense, 8 defense 2 PK/P)
Husky MVP: RB Chris Polk
6. Arizona...The Wildcats fell apart over the last half of 2010 so there are a lot of questions to be answered this fall. QB is solid with record setting QB Nick Foles returning. Juron Criner is the best receiver in the Pac 12 when healthy but there are rumors floating around out there that he may not be ready for fall camp.
Wildcat Challenges: Replacing five starters on the offensive line and seven starters on defense.
Returning Starters: 13 (5 offense, 7 defense, 1 PK/P)
Wildcat MVP: WR Juron Criner
7. Utah...Most experts are keeping the Ute's near the middle of the conference despite heavy graduation losses. That is a tip of the hat to Kyle Whittingham who has continued to build on a solid program inherited by Urban Meyer. The feeling is the continuity in the coaching staff will get this team over the hump in a more competitive conference. This is a real dark horse type squad. Nobody knows what they really can do till they hit the field and oin the weekly grind that is Pac 12 football.
Ute Challenges: Stepping up the level of competition by playing a tough opponent every single week.
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 5 defense, 1 PK/P)
Ute MVP: QB Jordan Wynn
8. California...The Bears have been under performing over the last few seasons. The biggest reason has been the lack of consistent play at quarterback. Is Zach Maynard the guy that is going to turn it around when he starts hooking up with his half brother Keenan Allen?
Bear challenges: We will have to wait and see to figure out if Zach Maynard is going to be the savior at QB.
Returning Starters: 15 (7 offense, 6 defense 2 PK/P)
Bear MVP: WR Keenan Allen
9. Oregon State...The loss of Jacquizz Rodgers to the NFL and the potential loss of his brother James to injury is going to slow down this offense. WR Jordan Bishop is also banged up.
Beaver Challenges: The WR corp is banged up going into camp. The offensive line needs to show improvement in 2011 and they have to find a RB to replace Quizz Rodgers.
Returning Starters: 12 (7 offense, 4 defense, 1 PK/P)
Beaver MVP: QB Ryan Katz
10. Washington State...You read it here first last fall. The Cougars are going to start the season with a 5-0 record. After that happens they will struggle to find a win to become bowl eligible. Idaho State, UNLV, San Diego State, and UCLA are going to go down like power windows on a Cadillac Escalade for the crimson and grey. The bad news is the Coug's will struggle to find another win after that but Oregon State who they beat last season is a possibility.
Cougar Challenges: Shoring up a defense that can't stop anyone and an offensive line that allowed over 50 sacks last season.
Returning Starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense, 0 PK/P)
Cougar MVP: QB Jeff Tuel
11. UCLA...The Bruins have San Jose State, Houston, and Texas on the non conference slate. They should win at least two of those. Keep in mind they did beat Texas last year on the road and the rematch is in the Rose Bowl this season. Neuheisel rebuilt the coaching staff this spring and he realizes he is on the hot seat. UCLA doesn't want to fire him but if he doesn't break .500 and go to a bowl game this season the alumni are going to demand change.
Bruin Challenges: Finding a consistent QB and an adequate offensive line to block for him.
Returning Starters: 16 (7 offense, 8 defense, 1 PK/P)
Bruin MVP: RB Jonathan Franklin
12. Colorado...Jon Embree is a good fit at Colorado but it will take a couple of recruiting years for his program to begin to be competitive with most of the Pac 12. Non conference games with Hawaii, Colorado State, and Ohio State do not make the rebuilding any easier. This team has some bright spots here and there but overall they are the slowest team in the conference. Lack of speed will kill you in the Pac 12.
Returning Starters: 18 (9 offense, 8 defense, 1 PK/P)
Buffalo Challenges: Consistent play on offense and the ability to produce some stops on defense to give this team a chance to stay competitive.
Buffalo MVP: RB Rodney Stewart
North Division Ranking
- Oregon
- Stanford
- Washington
- California
- Oregon State
- Washington State
South Division Ranking
- Arizona State
- USC
- Arizona
- Utah
- UCLA
- Colorado
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Insiders keep telling me not to worry about QB.
This time last year, Insiders were saying don’t worry about the offensive line. How did that work out? That said, I don’t think there should be too much worry til they take the field. I just think that anyone thinking the Quarterback position is going to improve by leaps and bounds are drinking a really big glass of optimism.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
on the QB play
I don’t think the QB position is going to improve this year. But I do think it’s plausible that the QB results will improve, due to improvements all around the QB position.
Another thing to consider – Jake, for all his gifts, was not that great at throwing within the pocket. Whether it be happy feet from lack of confidence in his pass-pro, to not having ideal safety valve routes in the form of effective pass-catching TEs and RBs out of the backfield, he just wasn’t that great as a pocket passer. Get him rolling out and he was deadly – more accurate and taking advantage of his running gifts.
I think it’s certainly possible that Price might be a better pocket passer than Jake by the time he’s done with his UW career, and while it’s doubtful he’ll be as accurate on the run as Jake, he also provides a credible run/pass threat when rolling out.
Keith Price
The guy is a lot faster than people think. He is going to make some plays running the football. It will just add another dimension which to me seems to be a much more multidimensional football team. As always the key is how well the offensive line comes together.
Washington Husky Football-"Hear the bark, feel the bite!"
I like Price and thought he looked solid against the yucks last year. However, he has two major things working against him 1) he is rail thin and if they run him it better be to the edge where he can get out of bounds without taking a hit or he’s not going to last long. If he tries to run and put his shoulder into a defender, like Locker often did, he’ll get broke in half. 2) He has a tough time seeing over the OL. Pass blocking is going to have to be very good and spaced well to provide Keith with “vision lanes” to see WR’s down the field, especially over the middle.
Kid threw a TD pass the first time he was really needed (not counting mop up against Syracuse).
I’m not worried. I am worried about the Offensive Line though. They’re thin on experience as is and with the injury issues it could be a pretty bad season. However, last season IIRC we had a different starting 5 for every single game so I don’t know if we could take too much of a step back in that area.
pundits were saying not to worry about the o-line based on cumulative games started ...
… but I don’t recall that being the sentiment of those on this forum or of other “inside” sources who tend to chime in towards the end of summer.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
While I'm taking a wait and see approach as well,
I still love what I’m hearing about Price. I liked the story Brock Huard told about him last week. The Seahawk players were holding workouts in the Husky practice facilities, and he said that Jerheme Urban (who was working with the Seahawk players) was talking to Brock, and without being prompted at all, starting singing praise about some QB he didn’t know, but who he thought said he was from Compton.
From everything I’m hearing about Price, if he fails, it won’t be due to him not working his ass off to make the most of his opportunity.
by Mind of no mind on Jul 21, 2011 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
But I do think it’s plausible that the QB results will improve, due to improvements all around the QB position
I completely agree. If you just look at Locker’s numbers, Price only needs to account for around 190 yards passing and 35 or so on the ground to equal what Locker gave the Dawgs last season. I doubt Price will average that many on the ground per game, but the 35 or so yards a game the tight ends will likely account for makes it very plausible that Price could end up with more yards through the air than Locker did.
Looking at the numbers
If you look at Locker’s numbers you realize that Price can equal or surpass them this season.
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Jul 21, 2011 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
its not the numbers I'm worried about ...
… its the ability to make plays on third and fourth down that Locker had a knack for.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Ok mr analytical.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jul 21, 2011 9:22 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry, I'd rather be well educated
Than make statements which may or may not be true based on a few chosen plays while forgetting countless others.
by thecassino on Jul 22, 2011 7:29 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha. Your statement is just as anecdotal as mine!
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jul 22, 2011 11:54 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You don't seem to understand what that means.
by thecassino on Jul 22, 2011 2:13 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Dude, I'm an economist by training...
…and my career has been built around my expertise in econometrics. I think I understand the concept of evidence. However, a) this is sports, and b) an attempt to invalidate my opinion by pointing out that I was too lazy to dig up the stats while you yourself are also too lazy to dig up the stats means you are just being a dick. Feel free to disagree and debate, but don’t pretend you are the superior intellect simply because you can point out the fact I haven’t cited those stats.
BTW, we missed you this basketball season.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Ok then let's do this:
Last season, on 3rd and 4th downs Locker:
Completed 46/92 (50%) of his passes, 19 of which were shy of the first down, giving him 27/92 (29%) conversions through the air.
He was tackled on 3rd and 4th downs 39 times, 17 of those coming after he crossed the sticks (44%).
His grand total for last year was 44/131, for a success rate of 34% with 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 1 rushing TD, 2 Fumbles, and and 10 sacks taken.
Without having the national average, I can tell you those numbers are probably not good. In fact, they’re probably not even average.
by thecassino on Jul 22, 2011 7:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Or we could do this....
Of course, you know that Jake in 2010 threw for 55.4% and a TD:Int ratio of just less than 2:1
But, did you know that…
… Jake’s completion % improved to 56.1 and his TD:Int ratio improved to 4:1 (12-3) in situations where the game was within 7 points either way? In 2009, his completion % in those situations was similar, but his TD:Int was 9:8 suggesting major improvement in 2010
… Jake’s TD:Int ratio in close games in 2010 was better than Luck’s (13-4)?
… And it was better than Darron Thomas’s (17-6)
… Jake, in 2010, converted a great 10 of 19 third downs of 6 yards or less with his legs? Or that in 2009 the total was 12 of 23?
… Five of Jake’s six rushing TD’s came when the game was within 7 points either way?
… That was better than DT (3) or Luck (1)
… Jake’s 4 first down runs on fourth down were second in the PAC 10 just behind LaMichael James’ 6?
… That Jake was tied for fourth in the PAC on converting all third or fourth down runs behind Tyler, LMJ, and Taylor?
… That Jake was second in the PAC 10 in total % of a teams first downs at 53% (Tuel was first)?
… That Jake made game-winning plays under duress in three of the Huskies 6 regular season games (USC, WSU, OSU) and in the Holiday Bowl?
You could chew on more stats like this. Or, you could just believe your eyes.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Now imagine how good Jake's stat's would be . . .
if we had ANY offensive linemen who could squat more weight than he could!!!
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
or...
…if he’d had WRs that didn’t drop easy catches, or any kind of TE threat at all.
I’m having a hard time fathoming anyone watching our team regularly that didn’t think Jake was an asset on 3rd & 4th downs.
The problem with stats in football is that it is such a team sport that it can be difficult to arrive at definitive conclusions based on stats alone – context (and teammates) matter. Jake was not the best option on 3rd downs passing the ball, but he was a huge benefit running or when a play broke down.
The best benefit of Jake . . .
is one that can not be statistically proven. He forced the opposing defense to play honest football.
I know this is awfully generic, but indulge me:
How do you beat Oregon/Cal/Georgia Tech: make them throw the ball.
How do you beat Arizona, ASU, Texas Tech, Missouri: Make them run the ball.
Most Defensive Coordinators try and stop the opposing offense by “guessing” what they are going to do, run or pass, left, right, middle, then call a defensive package that will stop such a play. A predictable offense is only good when you are significantly more talented than the other team.
Jake Locker made us far better than the sum of our parts, mainly because defenses couldn’t focus on any one part of the offense. You had to be prepared for a run, or a pass, or for Jake, on every single play.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
Think about this ...
… Over the last two years, if the offense could somehow manage to get a total of four yards on first or second down, Jake would get you a first down with his legs more than half the time he tried. It’s pretty remarkable
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Now you're just being ridiculous
Changing the subject entirely? Youre better than that. All of the stuff you put out there is irrelevant to what we were talking about: Locker converting on 3rd and 4th down.
In fact, many of things you posted strengthen my argument.
His completion % was worse on 3rd and 4th down than other downs.
So was his TD:INT ratio.
Counting stats for close games pretty bad way to compare Locker with Luck and Thomas.
They generally beat their opponents soundly, where UW did not, so Locker had way more chances.
You’re giving Jake credit for an OSU player dropping a pass in the endzone to win the game for OSU? Interesting.
I just proved that your eyes lied to you about his ability on 3rd and 4th down. Mine told me he wasn’t nearly as good as you made him out to be, and guess what? My eyes were right. So I guess I will continue to believe my eyes.
by thecassino on Jul 23, 2011 10:23 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
the problem with your argument...
…is you appear to be placing all the blame and credit in Jake’s hands. Consider the pieces around him, and using that information, speculate on how others would have fared in his place.
I don’t think anyone here is saying Jake was the best guy around on converting 3rd and 4th downs, but I also think it’s counter-intuitive, after having watched all of Jake’s games, to think that Keith Price is going to be better in those situations than Jake would have been. He may post better numbers on those situations, but is that because Price is better, or because the pieces around him are better?
You are funny....
I cited several third and fourth down stats – especially related to running the ball. You just chose to ignore them because you want so badly for me to concede and change my opinion despite the fact that all you gave us was a guess that jake’s third down passing numbers were poor relative to others (and outside of any context). You really are going to have to try harder.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jul 23, 2011 4:12 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
By the way...
Without checking national averages, your power of persuasion is probably not good.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jul 23, 2011 4:16 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The evidence was all over Jake's body.
But it’s probably healed by now.
It’d be interesting to know how accurate this really is. I’m sure there’s a stat out there somewhere.
He was decidedly clutch against USC the last two seasons, but definitely not against UCLA in 2009 nor BYU last year. I think the TD throw to win the Apple Cup was on third down. It seems like he missed a handful of third down throws against ASU this season, but again, that’s just by memory.
I think the biggest value he provided the last two seasons has been the ability to avoid negative plays. He ran out of or through more sacks than I can remember. Price looked good moving around in the pocket against Oregon, but I’m not sure he has the ability to do as much of that as Locker did.
WSU
That game shouldn’t have been as close as it was. Of course Locker threw a pick into the endzone and wazzu marched 80 yards the other way for a touchdown. Locker had his moments but he was inconsistent and I think he was a victim of the Ty fiasco and getting Sark late in his career. Can you imagine how much better he would have been ( actually the ENTIRE Husky Program but that’s a no brainer) had Sark had him for 5 years?!
Washington Husky Football-"Hear the bark, feel the bite!"
Ideally he wouldn't need to have more yards than Locker
He’s almost certain to have fewer attempts, all things equal for one, and it’d be nice to see the team give him a lead to work with on a somewhat consistent basis, and then put the game in the hands Polk and Callier.
Are you talking on the ground, through the air, or both?
On the ground, I agree he’ll have fewer attempts and probably won’t come anywhere near the total yards Locker had. I think Sarkisian is pretty committed to a 50/50 run/pass ratio, though. I think Price is still going to end up throwing the ball pretty close to the same number of times Locker did in 2010 (around 28 per game).
Locker averaged around 10 carries per game (sacks included, so maybe 7 actual rushing attempts). Somebody is going to have to pick those up as well. Losing Cooper and Fogerson really hurts in that regard. I don’t want them going to Price, and I just don’t think you can give them all to Polk. Callier is going to get some of them, and Fogerson or one of the freshmen is going to need to be ready to go.
I’d love to see this team with a lead and the ability to shorten a game. I never thought I’d miss those boring 4th quarters we had to watch under James as much as I do.
Locker
Look at his first few years. Running the option and not having talent around him. The guy was running for his life a lot. Then he gets Sark who really just got started with him. To me it’s obvious that Locker as an athlete is a unquestionable talent. As a QB he really just got started.
Washington Husky Football-"Hear the bark, feel the bite!"
Yep.
He’s only really played the position for two years, and part of that time was spent unlearning the bad habits he picked up in his first three years at the UW.
I’m always reminded of this comment in a column Hugh MIllen wrote for the Seattle Times:
Locker was prodigious in high school but constrained by the wing-T offense. His quarterback coach for his first three years at Washington was former collegiate running back Tim Lappano. Predictably, the timing and precision so vital to an effective passing game was never demanded. Seam routes completed 28 yards downfield during practice — when the depth should be 18 to 22 to beat the safety — would be greeted with a high-five for Locker and a comment from Lappano, “nice throw.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskies/2010457665_locker09.html
loved Lappano but...
…he was miscast as a QB coach. I know the reality was that the grad assistants like Luke Huard were as much (if not more) Locker’s true QB coach than Lappano, but even there, you’re talking about guys that were just getting started in coaching.
I think Lappano had a good offensive mind I liked listening to him – seemed like a straight-shooter. But if he was going to have coaching duties beyond being a coordinator, RB coach was the best spot for him IMO.
Yes, and I don't mean to blame Lappano.
I like the one-back stuff he ran under Erickson. But he was miscast as offensive coordinator just as much as he was as QB coach (though again, not his fault).
It was ridiculous to A) not hire a full-time QB coach, and B) force Lappano on a nation-wide crash course of the spread instead of just hiring a guy that already knows it.
totally agree
Asking a guy with a lot of expertise running the one-back Erickson-style offense to try to learn the spread option offense on the fly was one of many staggeringly dumb decisions by Ty at the UW…
I can't wrap my head around it
With each passing day it gets weirder and weirder.
I miss *REAL* Four Loko
by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 22, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
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