Pac 12 Power Ratings -Post Spring
by John Berkowitz on May 25, 2011 7:51 AM PDT
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Print1. Oregon...The Ducks were able to avoid last springs off season distractions which is a huge sign of progress for the program. On the playing field we really didn't see anything that would keep us from picking the Ducks to win the division or the overall championship.
2. Stanford...The Cardinal have a new head coach but they return perhaps the best QB in the nation in Andrew Luck. Harbaugh left enough talent stockpiled that another BCS run is not out of the question for this squad. Going forward David Shaw needs to show he can recruit as well as Harbaugh to keep the train on the tracks.
3. Southern Cal...It has been too quiet down in SOCAL this spring. Even though Kiffin and the gang have their collective backs against the wall because of sanctions their is hope that the NCAA will lessen them in the near future. QB Matt Barley had a solid spring and is ready to break out.
4. Arizona State...ASU is still the media's pick to have a breakout season but injuries in the defensive backfield have stymied some of that enthusiasm as of late. Dennis Erickson needs to win in 2011 if he has any hope of getting an extension.
5. Washington...Keith Price seized the starting QB job this spring by clearly playing Nick Montana who didn't play badly either. The early consensus is that the Huskies will lead with their running game and defense which will take plenty of pressure off Price.
6. Arizona...The Wildcats have some rebuilding to do on the offensive line and on defense. They do however have a returning senior QB which means that this program will likely go bowling again in 2011. Stoops has done a nice job making this program competitive but can he take it to the next level which would include a BCS bowl game?
7. California...Zach Maynard isn't going to make anyone forget about Kevin Riley. The Bear offense won't move until they develop a capable signal caller. Defensively the Bears recruited extremely well. Expect to see quite a few of those highly regarded players get early shots at quality playing time.
8. Utah...What do you expect from Utah as they head into their first Pac 12 campaign? QB Jordan Wynn missed spring practice while recovering from shoulder surgery. Norm Chow has joined the staff to help retool the offense for the Pac 12.
9. Oregon State...James Rodgers may have played his last down as a Beaver. That certainly isn't good for the Black Bandits of Benton County. That being said nobody should every ignore Coach Riley and the year to year potential of his program.
10. Washington State...Paul Wulff escaped the hangman at the end of last season by putting together a team that competed extremely well over the last half of the 2010 season. The wins needs to come early and often against a cupcake schedule to open the season for the momentum to continue.
11. UCLA...The Rick Neuheisel era at UCLA has been nothing short of a train wreck. Nothing short of a miracle will produce the turn around needed to help Rick keep his job. The offense continues to be a major concern with QB play being the main culprit. Look a little deeper and you find a program that hasn't recruited well enough up front.
12. Colorado...Jon Embree has his work cut out for him but the good news is he probably has four years to get this mess turned around.
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Utah seems low
Though I would guess the 5-8 teams are pretty well bunched. While I get they are going to struggle with depth issues in the Pac-12, early on they should play well.
USC and ASU are interesting, and could challenge the top teams, but could also dissapoint and drop to the middle of the pack. The bottom 4 seem about right, though OSU could move up.
Benno
I might put them just ahead of Cal
Mostly because of how up-and-down Cal has been the last couple of years. Also, this is a power ranking. When you factor in strength of schedule, Utah might very well finish with 7-9 wins. An upset of USC or ASU and they could potentially win the South division.
yep
I think people are underestimating Utah. That program is solid, with a great coach in Whittingham. They’ve had some losses in the secondary, but Whittingham has put out a lot of good defenses and I would give him the benefit of the doubt in that regard.
I think the South is going to be really interesting. I have my doubts that ASU will live up to their early hype, though their recent injuries seem to have put a damper on that enthusiasm. I also think USC is vulnerable – lack of depth in their OL could be a real issue if they have some injuries there, and I’m not sold on Kiffin as a coach. However, they are talented enough that they could certainly run away with that division, especially if their post-season ban is lifted and they have the motivation of a bowl game.
Oregon is in an interesting spot – great backfield talent, questionable experience on both lines and their WR group. I think this will probably not be a year where the Pac-12 has a National Championship contender – too many question marks on all the teams.
Stanford has a lot going for them, but until we see how Shaw does as a head man, hard to project them with a great deal of accuracy. They should be a contender to win 10+ games, but if Shaw isn’t up to snuff they could drop back to the middle of the Pac.
Good opportunity for Washington to continue making progress in the win column, even with the graduation of Locker. Lots of question marks all around the league, and the opportunity is there for the Dawgs to really surprise some people that are expecting them to merely tread water this year in the absence of Jake.
On Utah...
I agree on Wittingham. Very good coach. At the time, a guy I would’ve loved to have hired for the UW. But even as well as he’s done there, you’d be hard-pressed to call the talent he’s brought in much better than “average” for the Pac 12.
The last five games of last year were the meat of their schedule (not including the bowl game). They went 3-2, and won those three by about 10 combined points. This year, they have an 8 game swing with every team as good as or better than the three teams they beat. 5 are on the road. After that, they have to play three teams that aren’t as talented as the Utes, but are still good enough to rise up and beat them on any given Saturday. Even if Utah is as good as last season, or better, I think the grind catches up to them this year. Their September bye really does them no favors.
If I had to bet on it, I’d call the Utes a bowl team, but not likely the winner of the South division unless the rest of the pack falls back to them. 6-3 could win the South. For Utah to win it, I think that’d have to be the case.
agreed
But I’d put them ahead of Arizona. I’m just not convinced by Stoops, and a lot of key losses for the Wildcats – replacing all five starters on the OL, losing all of their productive DEs, etc.
completely agree ...
on John’s list I’d say the following:
>>Overrated
Arizona
Stanford
ASU
>>Underrated
Cal
USC
and probably UCLA a little bit
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
agree on Cal
I think Maynard will provide a pretty good boost to the QB position for them. Yeah, losing Vereen hurts, and the returning guys haven’t impressed so far, but they have a lot of talent coming in at the RB position, and we all know about the big haul they got on defense too. Tedford has been causing a lot of pain for Sark lately…
This is not to say they’re going to contend for the conference title, but I think the defense will remain good enough to keep them in ball games, and I expect the offense to perform better with Maynard at the controls than they did with Mansion.
5-8 are all pretty tight
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on May 25, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
BIG SURPRISE
I think the Huskies will be the team to beat next year in the north. Jamorra and Shirley coming off the ends means most opponent plays won’t get out of their own backfield. Ta’amu owning the middle.
With this combination we will be playing a man to man bump and run pass defense.
OR success is staying on the field tiring the defense. Get them 3 and out and they are exposed as only a gimmick team.
One caution though we are young and very susceptible to injuries at key spots.
Support our student athletes, have faith in the coaches! "...it's how you play the game!"
Why play bump and run when you have a pass rush?
Seems to me like dropping in a zone would be a more prudent move when you can get 4 down pressure.
As for the rankings, I’m a cynic and I think we have too many unproven spots to be any higher than 7th.
by B Money on May 25, 2011 12:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Reading that now it sounds weird
I should say, why play man coverage beyond they corners? There is some merit to press coverage, but I don’t get full man coverage when it creates mismatches and you can force the issue with the DL.
by B Money on May 25, 2011 12:57 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
man to man
The coverage has been practiced this past spring. Husky coaches must fell they can pull it off with added speed.
Support our student athletes, have faith in the coaches! "...it's how you play the game!"
I should say, why play man coverage beyond they corners?
Lots of 3, 4, and 5 wide receiver sets from offenses these days. If the D plays press man, the safeties are going to have to be involved at least some (if not most) of the time.
press time
The coverage is all based on getting to the QB fast. I think we have the defensive spped to accomplish this. We cannot give them 15 yards and 45 seconds like last year.
Support our student athletes, have faith in the coaches! "...it's how you play the game!"
USC APPEAL DENIED
USC TROJANS NCAA APPEAL DENIED
Support our student athletes, have faith in the coaches! "...it's how you play the game!"
Power Rankings ....
1. Oregon –
Kiko Alonso disagrees with your notion of offseason turmoil. The man has plead guilty – why is he still on the team? More Chip Kelly letting his on the field needs outweigh his off-the-field standards
2. Stanford –
Please. 8 win team at best. You don’t lose all that they lost, including most of your coaching staff, and repeat what was an already over the top season for them.
3. USC -
Appeal: DENIED
4. ASU -
I like the unis, but don’t like the hype.
5. Washington –
Can this o-line really protect whatever QB is back there?
6. Arizona –
Funny how everyone seems to have forgotten Foles three interception game in the Alamo Bowl. Know how many of those stinkers Jake had all year? None. Just goes to show how important an o-line is to the passing game.
7. Cal –
They still have a pretty good D and, I suspect, will be the one team people are probably overlooking too much.
8. Utah –
I know Kirk thinks they are a sleeper, but I think they are going to be humbled pretty well in their first year. I don’t mean to convey that they are fall to three win depths, but .500 in conference play would surprise me.
9. Oregon State
I’m very very skeptical of Oregon State. I think Katz is going to be a turnover machine this year.
10. WSU –
I’ll believe it when I see it. Line depth on both sides is still a critical issue no matter how good Tuel or his receivers are.
11. UCLA –
Better than WSU and OSU based on their defense alone.
12. Colorado –
Better than WSU and OSU based on their defense alone … I think.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Awesome
Way too solid!
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on May 25, 2011 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions
about number 1
Ask Blount about Kelly’s discipline. The guy, if on pretty much any other team in the country, would have been suspended for one game. ONE GAME. He was our number one back. The game plan was to hand off to Blount 30-40 times a game for the season! That’s what they practiced all spring. Even when he was reinstated Kelly didn’t play him for 3 games.
I just don’t get your anamosity over this? What was the punishment of the last Husky player who punched someone? Was there a punishment?
by Quacker Backer on May 27, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
What was the punishment of the last Husky player who punched someone? Was there a punishment?
On national TV?
After the game was over?
A total sucker punch, after spending the offseason talking crap and then failing miserably to deliver?
Then proceeding to punch his own teammates that were trying to calm him down, and going after fans in the stands while being held by police?
Hmmmm……..I think the last Husky player that did that had to run the stadium and missed the first quarter of the next game.
I think you’re wrong about any other team suspending Blount for only one game; you’ve absolutely no basis for making such a definitive statement. Really, going after his own teammates and fans was the worst part of that issue, in my mind. And in all seriousness, I highly doubt that you’ll find too many Husky fans that think Kelly didn’t handle that situation well.
My thoughts/rankings
1. Oregon – I really wish the NCAA would hurry up with the investigation and bring them back to reality.
2. Stanford – Should be interesting to see how they do, I expect a good season, thanks to Luck returning, but expect a big slide after this season.
3. USC – The slow slide continues, but I still don’t see enough teams ready to knock them off . . . .yet. I’m going to love watching Kiffin slowly imploded.
4. Arizona – Nobody expects much, I think they are a sleeper. I am spending this week in Tucson, could be a bit bias due to the BEAUTIFUL weather.
5. Utah – Can’t wait to see how they do, but I expect them to be average in the Pac12, but I’m not overly impressed with anybody else this season.
6. Cal – I expect a rebound, but nothing too exciting.
7. UW – I’m not sold on the offensive line or the defense. Last year we went into the season thinking the defense had turned the corner, it just took them 9 games to go around the block and turn that corner again.
8. ASU – OVERRATED. I use to be a big Dennis Erickson fan, but I still can’t figure out what all the hype is about.
9. Oregon State – Yawn . . . .
10. UCLA – I just love seeing Neuheisel self destruct. Is it too early to say, I TOLD YOU SO!!!!.
11. WSU – I’d like to personally thank WSU for keeping Wulff, I hope he gets a lifetime extension!
12. Colorado – Glad to see WSU has competition for the cellar
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
Colorado
I’m not sure why people think Colorado is so awful as to be worse than WSU. Are they good? No. But they did win 5 games last year, none of which were against FCS competition. If WSU is going to pass another team this year and not be the worst in the conference, I’d put higher odds on that team being UCLA rather than Colorado.
Colorado is terrible
I think most of us are judging them by past performance against recent Pac 10 opponents and secondly having to break in a new coaching staff.
Are they worse than WSU?
Yep….and I am betting on WSU to surprise early and often this season.
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on May 26, 2011 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions
John John John ...
… predicting WSU to “surprise early and often” is a statement that simply must get challenged. WSU’s one accomplishment over the past three years was beating future cellar-dweller partner OSU at Corvallis last season. The roster continues to get depleted by injuries and drug-arrests (fortunately, the NFL draft has not been a problem for them). The lines on either side of the ball are stocked full of players who barely qualify as talent at the high school level. Their head coach, while clearly a fine human being with some recruiting capability, has yet to demonstrate any semblance of an ability to actually manage a game.
The one blessing that they have is that their first five games are IDST, SDSU, UNLV, UCLA and Colorado. There are two wins there – maybe three, maybe just one. Of course, that means that they will likely close the season on a seven game losing streak with the tenure of Wulff coming to a merciful end following the Apple Cup.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
Couldn't agree more.
WSU just simply doesn’t have Pac 12 quality or depth on either line. They aren’t going to be able to run the ball, and they aren’t going to be able to stop the run.
As good as I think Tuel and the WSU passing game will be, it has yet to keep them in a game, save OSU and the Apple Cup. And really, UW’s mistakes did as much to keep the Cougs in the game than anything WSU did.
"As good as I think Tuel and the WSU passing game will be, it has yet to keep them in a game, save OSU and the Apple Cup."
You seem to be forgetting the Oregon game. At the close of the third quarter, Tuel got ants in his pants and threw the ball to soon, and an Oregon defender picked it off in the end-zone. If Tuel waits and throws the TD and the Cougs kick the PAT, and the Cougs are down six heading into the fourth.
And I’d be careful about saying it was UW’s mistakes, not excellent defensive plays by the Cougs (rolls eyes), that led to the Husky turnovers. I hear C.J Mitzell is looking for someone to body slam this off season…
Attractive, Intelligent, Smart A**
by Neil Vincent Roberts on May 26, 2011 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
in all seriousness ...
… I would think that most of us are rooting for a WSU return to respectability. The downturn there has been too severe for even the more jaded UW fans to endorse. The truth is that WSU has not physically been “in the game” with most opponents over the past three years including UW during the Apple Cup last year. I think we can honestly say that no matter how much we might respect Tuel and his talents. WSU was a Jake Locker 75 yd TD called back on bogus holding penalty and a couple of missed assignments in the secondary away from making that game a laugher.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
You proved my point.
He didn’t wait. He didn’t make the play. Maybe that’s a play he makes this year. But he hasn’t done it yet.
Two unforced turnovers inside the Cougar 5. WSU had literally no impact on the fumble as Locker bumped into his running back on a ball fake, and the D simply had a guy standing in the right place to catch an easy pick in the end zone. Neither were “excellent defensive plays.” They were the right play, but the mistakes were made by the Dawgs, not forced by the Cougs. There was also a Tuel pass to the flat that hit a Husky DB right in the chest – would’ve been an easy pick six.
I’m sure Mitzell is looking for somebody to body slam this offseason. But maybe he should worry more about doing what it takes to become a full-time starter.
5 FBS wins vs. 1 FBS win
You really think Colorado’s resume is worse than WSU’s? I can’t agree with you on this one.
I really think people are looking too hard to see improvement in WSU and artificially lowering perceptions of other programs to justify that belief. WSU will be better, but they have so far to go that they can improve and still be the worst team in the conference. Colorado wasn’t good last year, but they were better than WSU.
The wild card obviously is Embree. He’s already cleared out a few players, and there appears to be a major culture change attempt playing out. Hard to say at this point whether that means an immediate boost, or whether Embree will need a few years of weeding out the old and bringing in the new for the team to respond positively to the change he’s bringing.
However, I strongly believe that, on paper, Colorado is a better team than WSU.
Now UCLA on the other hand – a lot of talent, but a mess. If they struggle out of the gate, Katy-bar-the-door, because they could collapse altogether as players realize Neuheisel is likely a goner and the season is a lost cause. If you want to point out a team that WSU could pass this year, UCLA is a better bet.
my thoughts
I believe that CU is probably worse. However, the feeling around Denver is similar to me as what we felt about Sarkisian. I think Embree will get this team to overachieve this year based pride alone. CU hit almost as rock bottom as UDUB and I actually expect a similar turn around in the beginning.
arrogant fans
never in my life have i seen fans as arrogant as Husky fans in the 90’s. Suck it up! Besides, it won’t last long. There really is no need to knock down the Ducks because the conf. need several great teams for RPI reasons,…what you need is to get back up to that level. And you will.
by Quacker Backer on May 27, 2011 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
hmmm
never in my life have i seen fans as arrogant as Husky fans in the 90’s.
How about duck fans in the Chip Kelly era? No? High Five!
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
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