Basketball Future
by CODawg on Feb 16, 2011 2:26 PM PST
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PrintWith Angelo Chol eliminating UDub from consideration, I believe it’s a good time to look at where our team stands for next year. This is probably premature but, no I am not giving up on this year, but unlike John, I am having a slow day at work.
Current Roster
Seniors (3) Class of 2011
MBA PF
Venoy Overton PG
Juniors (3) 2012
Isaiah Thomas SG
Darnell Gant SF
Scott Suggs SG
Brendan Sherrer PF (non-scholarship)
Sophomore (2) 2013
Abdul Gaddy PG
Aziz N’Diaye C
Freshman (3) 2014
Antoine Hosley PG (non-scholarship)
CJ Wilcox SG
*Kevin Davis PF (Tacoma CC)
RS/Recruits (4) 2015
Hikeem Stewart SG
Tony Wroten JR PG
Jernard Jarreau PF (projected RS)
2011 recruit Rankings
ESPN 18
Rivals 16 (best I could tell)
Overall it is a good class but lacking a low post player. Hopefully, one appears in the next couple months. Wroten was recently named to play in the Jordan Brand all-star game televised April 16 on ESPN2.
2016
Andrew Andrews PG (prep school)
Some analysis after the jump...
I count 11 scholarship athletes. I believe Tyreese Breshers counts for 12. There are 9 currently suiting up (might be part of our problem) With three leaving that means we only return 7 players (Gaddy from injury is the extra) with experience. There will be 4 newcomers for a total of 11 with Breshers being number 12 (max allowed by NCAA is 13). Gaddy will have plenty of time to recover but will be a big question mark in the offseason. With Chol eliminating UDUB this team is not faced with having to "force" a player to transfer to give his scholarship to someone else. A scenario that has played out a couple times in the past, and has been more prevalent on the football team under Sark. Does this mean that Hosley will earn a scholarship for next year? I don’t think so. I think Romar will keep it in his pocket for future classes or he maybe looking for a big man in the JC ranks he can bring in next year?
So the question becomes does Hosley transfer? Does anyone else transfer? Hosley may transfer but does it really matter? I don’t see him ever being a big part of this team, maybe a leader as a senior but nothing more. The recruits coming in behind him a far more talented. I brought up the point a few weeks back that I could see Wilcox transferring. This was coming off of Scott Suggs having back to back games where he looked like the next coming of Brandon Roy. Suggs (and myself) were brought back to earth, and I no longer want Wilcox transfer but he still may. Our starting lineup and depth chart for next year look like this.
PG Abdul Gaddy/Tony Wroten
SG Isaiah Thomas/Scott Suggs
SF Terrence Ross/Darnell Gant
PF Desmond Simmons/Darnell Gant
C Aziz N’Diaye
This projected lineup is why I think Wilcox is still a flight risk. He is still probably the 9th guy on the roster. I would love for him to stay as he would be the best 9th player in the conference, but if he is hungry to become a starter somewhere else sooner he is gone. Hopefully he is patient and realizes that he could be a starter in 2012-2013 and his senior year. But every year someone seems to transfer and if I look at the roster, Wilcox seems to be the most likely candidate. The other glaring aspect of this lineup is the lack of front court experience and talent. N’Diaye has improved but still a project, Simmons is somewhat unknown and Gant has turned into more of small forward than power. This should lead to smaller lineups that could see up to 4 guards (if you include Ross) on the floor at one time with either N’Diaye, Simmons or Gant at the lone big man.
The other thing that stands out to me about this class is the lack of upper classmen we will have in two years. This is due to health (Bressers) and transfers (Trent, Turner). We are projected now to only have 4 upper classmen if no one leaves early or transfers. This could be a good thing, with many young players like, Simmons, Wroten and Stewart contributing often and early. Or it could also be a detriment.
2012 recruiting
Andrew Andrews gives us one verbal commitment already from the 2012 class. ESPN lists 6 more players that are interested, including Anrio Adams of Garfield High and South Kent Prep School, and Jordan Tebbutt of Portland. Tebbutt appears to be headed to Oak Hill and most likely never considers coming back to the NW again. He claims to have 18 offers. Both are 4 stars athletes. ESPN also includes in state C Zach Banner. Banner is the number 20 C in the country according to ESPN, but most of us hope he plays at UDUB in the fall instead of winter as he is a ESPN150 OL. Banner has stated he wants to play both football and basketball in college and is an AAU teammate of Tony Wroten. He has also been quoted as saying USC is his dream school and they have offered in football. The last regional player listed by ESPN is 6’9" C Landen Lucas of Findlay Prep (Las Vegas, NV) via Portland.
Rivals list 22 players interested including the four already mentioned. The list also includes Lucas’ teammate 6’6" PF Anthony Bennett. Brandon Ashley is another highly talent big man that lists Washington. I mention all these big men, because for this team to take it too the next level it will be imperative to have a low post stud. Romar has always recruited guard/wing players, and I expect that to continue in 2012, but outside of Hawes and Brockman there hasn’t been an elite big man. And one wonders if they had not been from the state would they ever consider coming?
There is not a lot of information on 2012 recruiting yet, but this years class seems to be set. I am hoping Romar finds a big man in the coming weeks to take that 13th scholarship.
*Kevin Davis added after post. Davis is 6'9" PF. From what i read though he is more of small forward too. Very raw player (one year of HS), and has had some off the court issues. He is athletic big man that could eventually provide a lot of help, but probably very little next year.
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I can definitely see Wilcox making the decision to transfer.
He is clearly a talented basketball player staring down the possibility of being stuck at the end of the bench for the rest of his career. I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t. After sitting out a year he could certainly come in and earn major minutes right away at a lesser Pac 10 or Mtn. West Program or come in and immediately start for a WAC or WCC team. Also Gant is a really interesting player his freshman year he started a bunch of games and got decent minutes played a lot on the interior. It seemed like he barely played last season now he’s getting the same minutes as two years ago but seems more perimeter oriented. I can’t figure out what to make of the guy.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
nuts
I’d bet dollars to donuts that Wilcox starts next year over Gant. He almost has to … Gant has to be Aziz’s backup and will likely log more minutes. Our whole offense will be pick and roll with an emphasis on dribble drive and kickout. Wilcox and Suggs will be vital for shooting while IT and T-Ross are active in the lanes.
I don’t see any reas for CJ not to be a high performing Pac 10 player next year
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Feb 16, 2011 5:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Wilcox seems redundant in that lineup.
He’s certainly capable of playing at this level but he fills the same role as Ross and Suggs. Couple that with the fact he is already behind both of those players on the depth chart. With an already crowded back court and the return of Gaddy and Wroten coming in. It’s hard to see Wilcox seeing that many minutes even if UW chose to go back to a smaller lineup like in the Robinson and Conroy seasons.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Depth is big to Romar
We might have three of our 4 wings starting, which means somebody is going to have to spell them. Suggs, Ross, Wilcox and Wroten should all log some significant minutes. I’m kind of curious if Wroten will be a PG or more of SG with Isaiah in the lineup.
Disagree with Ross
Ross is a playmaker/scorer, whereas Suggs & Wilcox are spot up shooters (the same role E. Turner declined)
I think Wilcox stays and logs major minutes for UW for the next 3+ years
I disagree wholeheartedly.
Wilcox has been great the past couple of games, and has only seen four fewer minutes per game than Terrence Ross, despite a great disparity in “talent,” however you’d like to perceive that. They’re both going to prove invaluable to this team next year.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
It's not a great disparity in talent at all.
He just happens to be behind both Ross and Suggs on the depth chart. Ross is averaging 19 min and Suggs 20 min in Pac 10 play to Wilcox’s 10. I’m not saying Wilcox isn’t a valuable player, he is. I think it is more a question of is he ok with playing a reserve role for the next 3 years when he could be a starter elsewhere.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Could come down to
If he believes he is an NBA player or if he believes he will be just a decent College guy. Also, does he think he will start as a Junior and Senior
by CODawg on Feb 17, 2011 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
reserve?
What makes you think he’ll be on the bench for the next 3 years? Once Suggs graduates, Wilcox has a great shot at starting alongside Gaddy/Wroten at the 1 and Ross at the 3.
+1
Wilcox is Suggs “replacement” as our spot up shooter, hence the RS last year. If he spends the summer working on his D I could see him getting as much or more time as Suggs next year.
Wilcox redux
Kind of funny this debate happened today, and now Wilcox is lighting things up tonight at ASU.
I have very little doubt that C.J. will earn plenty of minutes next year and even more as a Junior and Senior.
So he's been too injured to play significant minutes but not injured
to actually miss more than 2 games?
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Wilcox
I think he’s going to get enough time next year. You show Gant as a backup at SF and PF; I think it’s more like PF and C given the roster situation. Romar often goes with 1 big, 1-2 point guards and 2-3 wings on the floor at a time, such as when he has MBA, Holiday, Suggs, IT & Venoy on the floor (as one example out of many possible combinations). Assuming that Wilcox is able to show his shooting slump is over and he can be a consistent 3-point threat, he’s going to get minutes.
In fact, with the post situation being quite thin next season with Chol ruled out, I expect an outstanding perimeter shooter like Wilcox will be all the more valuable.
totally agree with Kirk (and he soesnt like it when I do that)
Our lineup will be:
Aziz
T-Ross
Wilcox
IT
Gaddy
Gant will be first guy off bench and Suggs will be our scoring reserve. Wroten is an unknown at this point, but I expect him to follow T-Ross’s trajectory. Simmons is wild card.
If Wroten beats out gaddy, that would be fascinating.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Feb 16, 2011 5:53 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Ross at the four?
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
by THolt on Feb 17, 2011 3:16 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
It’s really going to be a cluster next year. On the bright side, contrary to what CGB will have you believe, when you have 5 superior and better conditioned athletes on the floor, you don’t really need to be able to run a set offense every trip down the floor.
Offensively we have nearly every base covered. We lack a true offensive big, but teams stacking the middle against us will pay with the shooters we have at our disposal and the respect they must give our guards inside. Defensively, things get complicated. We have three guys who can get nasty in the post in Aziz, Simmons and Gant. The issue is that all three are very limited offensively and at any time can completely stifle our own offense. LoRo is really going to have to earn his paycheck next year, finding out a way to make this team go. Hopefully, Aziz or Gant can develop some sort of post game, or we could be in for a long season of early jacked up threes.
If I were to post my ideal lineup, I’d have to make 30 of them. Depending on the personnel, you could play Gant next to Aziz, or go with Ross and Suggs with the two smaller guards. Or Aziz comes off the bench when we play someone like WSU with no towering big men. It’s all up in the air at this point, and I’ll be interested to see how it plays out.
We often don't play with more than one traditional post and its been that way since 2004
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Big Problem
We have been striking out on a lot of big men…we could have really used the bulk of Josh Smith inside.
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Feb 17, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
Yes
It is very difficult to string together 4 tournament wins when you rely on the 3 as much as our teams do. Also, when you have to play 4 games in 10 days, the high tempo offense can wear on you no matter how conditioned you are.
Duke disagrees.
They’ve often gone with more wings and fewer true posts.
I don’t discount the fact that it is a more difficult journey, but it is not impossible by any means, particularly given the athleticism Romar teams generally possess.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Feb 17, 2011 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
history does not agree...
… Guards win championships as long as there is length to defend and rebound.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Feb 17, 2011 9:05 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
True
And we do have some big guards now.
Buuuut, I’d be a lot more comfortable with another big to pair with Aziz. Would have been nice to have him and Chol in to block shots. Defensive would have been incredible with all the length on the floor.
Oh well though. Onward and upward
Gant
Yes with this lineup Gant will be forced to play the bigs. But my point was to show the lack of depth and talent on the front-court. Gant’s style is more suited to SF. I am sure he will be working on that during the off-season. This shows how important a guy like Chol would have been.
In the present
I know this is a little off topic but I was wondering if the dawgs lose three more games very possible IMHO (ASU-UA-UCLA-USC-WSU-PAC10 tourney) are they out of the NCAAs? I think they will loose two for sure UA and in the PAC10 tourney and very possible loose one of the remaining. That would give us 10 loses. Currently Bracketology101 has us a 9 seed and ESPN a 7 seed.
We can still probably lose two and one in the tourney
as long as it’s in the semis or final. A road win on Saturday would be huge and almost assure us a birth as it’s the resume win we’re lacking. Our RPI might take a hit from Seattle and ASU, but it shouldn’t be too bad as we have UCLA, UA and WSU coming up to give it a slight boost.
good observation
I think that scenario would come down to when the lost in the tourney. I personally don’t see them losing more than one. And if they beat Arizona they could run the table like last year
by CODawg on Feb 16, 2011 6:33 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think Breshers counts.
I could be wrong on this, but I think the medical retirement means he doesn’t count against the scholarship limit.
Kevin Davis a JC Transfer
Seattle Times Husky blog today lists Kevin Davis a Tacoma CC transfer a coming to the UW next year. I know it’s not Chol, but this may add some defense and rebounding help.
by sdhuskyfan on Feb 16, 2011 9:43 PM PST via mobile reply actions
It's iffy at best if he makes it this year
by B Money on Feb 16, 2011 10:39 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
And I wouldn't count on him to provide much frontline help next year even if he did make it in
He’s a good rebounder, and could be effective defensively, but he isn’t going to contribute from the post offensively. He’s build a lot like a small forward with no back to the basket post game.
I stand corrected
According to his coach (via Percy Allen), he’s on track to graduate and be here next fall.
Andrews
We need to bring him in with this class since he has blown up on the scene. Letting him go to prep school was okay as long as he was unknown, but now you bring him in and RS him to get a years separation between him and Gaddy. We can’t afford to let him possibly go to another school by becoming recruitable again.
If Gaddy hadn’t gotten hurt this year, I believe next year would have been his last but now feel he will stay 4 years, so getting a year more separation by RSing Andrews is a must.
I see next year thisway: Start ing C Aziz, 1st off bench Simmons, Fwd Gant and Gant stays in when Simmons spells Ndiaye, Gant gets his rest later with possibly Davis/Jarreau getting small minutes. Other Starting Fwd, is Ross, spelled by Wroten, Wilcox, Suggs in various combos. The Gs are Gaddy and IT (Suggs starting if IT leaves) with Wroten and Suggs, Wilcox and Ross once again mixing and matching the minutes. Stewart doesn’t get much time.
I know this sounds bad, but Jarreau plays and burns his year with very little minutes (think Trent) and you RS Andrews. Hosley and Sherrer don’t count as they are walk ons. I count 13 schollies, the limit in mens bb.
I don't see too many scenarios where Gant starts.
… He can’t score back to the basket. In fact, he’s a spot up shooter who isn’t as good as Wilcox or Suggs. I’m pretty sure Romar sacrifices his defense to get associated gains in offense. Couple that with the fact that few, if any, PAC teams will have two strong low post players next season makes me even more certain.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Feb 17, 2011 7:49 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m pretty sure Romar sacrifices his defense to get associated gains in offense.
I think it’s the opposite, which is why the minutes of guys like Suggs, Ross, and Wilcox have been limited relative to their offensive production, while Gant, N’Daiye, and Overton get more minutes with limited offense contributions. Romar has always been a defense-first coach. If you can’t play D the way he wants, you don’t play.
There aren’t many low-post guys in the conference that N’Daiye can guard for long stretches without getting into foul trouble. Gant is the only other guy on the roster next season that can guard a bigger guy down low, unless Simmons can play strong next year.
Gant is as likely as anyone to start at the 4. And for your list above, I don’t see Wilcox beating out a senior in Suggs, who can defend, penetrate and handle the ball better than Wilcox.
disagree Sundodger...
… Wilcox is a more complete player than Suggs right now.
You also made my point for me. Gant HAS to backup aziz. No one else can. You have to limit them on the floor at the same time because they can’t be accruing fouls at the same time.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Feb 17, 2011 9:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
… Wilcox is a more complete player than Suggs right now.
If he keeps playing the way he did last night, I’d have to agree. But he hasn’t shown that he’s as good a defender as Suggs yet. Or that he’s got much of a game inside the 3-point line.
He’s young, and might have more potential. And, it sounds like he did things last night that go to your point.
We’ll see.
You also made my point for me. Gant HAS to backup aziz. No one else can.
I disagree. I’m not necessarily saying that Gant starts, but there’s a very strong likelihood that we see a lot of small ball next season, without a big on the floor at all. And if Aziz has to guard the best post player, he won’t be getting more than 10 minutes a game because of foul problems. Gant would allow him to do what he does best, which is help defense and shot blocking. It helps to protect Aziz from picking up fouls.
Wilcox
But he hasn’t shown that he’s as good a defender as Suggs yet.
I suspect that there are many people who would disagree with this notion.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Well, the most important people (the coaches) agree with me.
Beyond that, I really don’t care (although I suspect more people would agree with me, anyway).
Suggs had the highest +/- of anybody on the team prior to being hurt.
Wilcox might be better some day. It might even be next year. But Suggs is the better all-around player right now.
Romar's comments on Wilcox's defense were very complimentary this week...
… and just looking at how Wilcox rebounds and plays help D right now (versus early in the season) tells me he is at least as effective as Suggs as a defender and clearly a better rebounder.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Jensen
you just had to bring up Jensen. Every time I think of him I only remember the foul he committed late in the sweet 16 game, to basically send it to OT. JENSEN DONT FOUL!.
ARGH! That is the night my son learned every cussword in the book. He was 8 at the time and he too hates Mike Jensen. My sons comments that night " Come on Mike even I know not to foul in that situation"
haha
Yup, not one of the finer moments in Husky history.
Also, keep up the good work with your son. An educated basketball player is a successful one…
I don't disagree about redshirting Andrews
But I do disagree on your logic. Gaddy will already be a Junior, do you really need more seperation than that?
Aargh, fat fingers
Anyway, Andrews as RS FR to play the rest of time when Gaddy’s not on floor. That way Andrews would be presumably starting PG for 3 years after. Recruit another PG in 2014 as his replacement.
I think we'll have the depth next year at PG to allow him to RS, so it would make sense in order to maximize his playing time over 4 years
With Gaddy, IT, & Wroten all able to be our primary ball handler we should be good to go next year.
I’m curious as to how Hikeem Stewart will fit in to the mix. Specifically whether or not he’ll develop more into the spot up shooter role, or a PG/SG combo guard. I suspect he may end up handling the ball quite a bit during his career too.
My main point was we need to make sure
Andrews comes in with this class, and not go to prep school where he becomes a recruitable athlete again. That was fine when he was unknown, but now we need to keep him on the LOI and maybe RS him , which I think we have the luxury to do in 2011-2012 season.
the post next year
If Davis makes it in to the UW, then Gant isn’t forced to play the 5 behind N’Diaye. He’d need to log some minutes there, because I doubt Romar would want Davis playing 20 minutes per night (assuming Aziz still has foul problems next year), but I don’t think Romar is necessarily going to have to use him strictly in relief of N’Diaye.
I have a feeling Simmons could see a lot of playing time, potentially even starting much like Gant did as a RS-Fr.
kirk, precisely what I was going to post
I have a feeling Simmons could see a lot of playing time, potentially even starting much like Gant did as a RS-Fr.
over who?
… highly unlikely. He’s not a PF as much as he is a Holiday type guy.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
I think he starts
I can definitely see Simmons getting starts. It really depends on who Romar brings in – does Davis make it in or not? If Davis makes it in, he has another big body he can use in the middle to spell N’Diaye, but Gant will still need to log some minutes there too. Simmons offers the kind of blue-collar hustle that Holiday does, but in a bigger package that can hang with many college 4’s. Depending on the opponent, Romar may prefer to bring Gant off the bench as a spot-up shooter to draw away a big from the interior.
The lineup permutations next year will be fascinating, partly because there are so many interchangeable parts. N’Diaye is clearly a 5/post man, and Gaddy is pretty clearly a 1/point guard. But beyond that, just about everyone else can play mutliple spots – IT is a great PG, but can also play off the ball at the 2; Wroten will log minutes as a PG, but also has the length and athleticism to play the 2 and 3 as a wing; Suggs, Ross and Wilcox are classic 2 and 3 wings; Simmons will see time as both a 3/wing and as a smaller 4; Gant has the length to play some at the 5, but is really more of a tall 3 and will see time as a 4.
Stewart I’m less certain of – he’s mainly a 2, but does he have the handles to step in at the point? Jarreau has length, but little strength – he’s really a tall 3 right now, but out of necessity he’ll probably see some time at the 4 and 5. If Davis makes it in, he’ll see time as a 4 and 5 post player.
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